One year Cuba under Díaz-Canel: The prevented reformer

We are Cuba. We are constancy. His recent tweets on the new constitution, the biggest achievement of his first year in office, also ended Miguel Díaz-Canel with his two favorite hashtags. #SomosCuba. #SomosContiunidad.

The Constitution proclaimed yesterday as a faithful successor of the Guaimaro Mambi constitution ensures the Unity of all Cubans, and the independence and sovereignty of the Homeland. #SomosCuba #SomosContinuidad pic.twitter.com/MmfjxstbPp

On 19 April 2018 Díaz-Canel started as the first president of the post-Castro era. Since then he has had to maintain a difficult balance: Cuba needs reforms in order to survive economically. At the same time Díaz-Canel has to consider the historical interests of the elite. This fits his tweet: The constitution does not mean complete change, but progress. However, to avoid too much fuss, Díaz-Canel has to sell her as something that continues the path of the revolution.

What has been achieved under these circumstances so far?

First, he changed the exchange with the people. "Díaz-Canel has introduced a more civilized style of politics," says Bert Hoffmann, political scientist at the GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies, SPIEGEL. The president travels a lot, seeks the conversation. That is also necessary: ​​because he was born after the revolution, he has to fight for recognition more than his predecessors.

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It also helps Twitter. Joined in August, Díaz-Canel today tweets daily. And the Cubans can answer: Since December they are surfing with mobile internet. The state allows so that his monopoly on media will be softened, says Hoffmann.

In addition, a non-governmental organization was recently allowed to take to the streets for a demonstration. People were protesting animal rights, not a sensitive issue for the government, and freedom of expression was an important first step.

Nevertheless, there are still many cases where the government is cracking down on opponents and critics. The reports, inter alia, Human Rights Watch, even if the reports of arbitrary arrests decline.

In terms of content, it is the new constitution that means the biggest political change. It is valid since 10 April and is mainly due to economic changes by Díaz-Canel's predecessor Raúl Castro. But it is also a success for the incumbent president. "This is an important process and not steered by Raúl Castro from the background, which controls this government," says Hoffmann.

Economic crisis by Trump, Bolsonaro and Venezuela

But many of the problems Díaz-Canel faced when he took office still exist today. With the CUC and the convertible Cuban peso (CUP) tied to the dollar, there are still two currencies. That paralyzes the economy. It also needs new trading partners, more foreign investment, a stronger private sector and more in-house production. "There has not yet been a profile of its own," says Günther Maihold from the Science and Politics Foundation to SPIEGEL about Díaz-Canel.

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Of course, this is also due to the severe economic crisis. The population lacks food. For the past year, the government had targeted economic growth of two percent, at the end of it was 1.2. For 2019, the target is 1.5 percent. The weak numbers are also due to external influences:

• Donald Trump: The US president has reversed the approach policy of his predecessor Barack Obama. For example, Cuba lacks income from US tourism. Although the country reported a record number of 4.75 million visitors in 2018, it remained just behind its own goals.

Andrew Harnik / DPA

US President Donald Trump relies on hard dealing with Cuba

• Jair Bolsonaro : A Cuban medical program in Brazil that cost Havana an estimated $ 400 to $ 500 million a year (350 to 440 million euros) ended under the new Brazilian president.
• The Venezuelan Crisis : US sanctions leave much of the cheap oil supply to Cuba, the key trading partner. There is also a military danger. "The troika of tyranny - Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua - is starting to crumble," said Trump's security adviser John Bolton a few days ago, announcing new sanctions against the three countries. In the Cuban elite there is the fear of a chain reaction: If Venezuela falls, then Bolivia also falls, then also Nicaragua falls - and then also Cuba is to it.

Havana now sources additional oil from Algeria and above all tries to boost national production. But that takes time.

Castro's influence remains strong

What is striking: All announcements to the difficult economic situation did not make Díaz-Canel in the past week. But Castro. He is still the head of the Communist Party and commander of the armed forces.

When he talks about the crisis, he takes Díaz-Canel out of the line of fire. Overall, however, Castro's enormous influence remains a problem for the president, says Maihold: "Raúl stands like a monument, and Díaz-Canel can not get past that." In addition, the military has much economic and political power. It is the area that Díaz-Canel did not go through in his way through the apparatus.

Yamil LOCATION / AFP

Raúl Castro (right) continues to give direction to President Miguel Díaz-Canel in many respects

In order to bring the interests of reformers and hardliners into line as president, Díaz-Canel, according to expert Hoffmann, has hitherto acted as a "cautious reformer". But the economic crisis could make sure that the new man does not have the time to go this slow way. That it is not enough to be a careful reformer.

Hoffmann sees two options for the future of Cuba: Either Díaz-Canel is speeding up the process of change or "going back to a quasi-war economy", as in the early 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Whether Díaz-Canel will go down in Cuban history as a reformer or as a guarantor of continuity should depend on this decision. And whether Castro and the party and military apparatus allow him to do so.