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Ukraine: "It has all the characteristics of a real offensive"

For the first time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on Saturday, June 10, "counter-offensive actions" of his army on the front. He did not, however, confirm whether this was the major attack planned for months by Kiev. These statements come as Russia has been warning for six days of large-scale assaults, including with equipment delivered by the West. Interview with Stéphane Audrand, consultant and expert in defence issues

Ukrainian soldiers near the city of Bakhmut, Ukraine. REUTERS - VIACHESLAV RATYNSKYI

Text by: Daniel Vallot Follow

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RFI: Ukrainian efforts are greatest in southern Ukraine, and particularly in the direction of Melitopol. Is the counter-offensive, which we have been hearing about for several weeks, taking place?

Stéphane Audrand: This has all the characteristics of a real offensive. We saw strikes in the Russian second echelon towards Tokmak to try to neutralize, probably, some artillery fire support or communication nodes. There are always strikes in the depth that continue on Melitopol, on Berdiansk, on Mariupol ... So that's the clue, if we attack on the first line, on these backs and even further, it means that we are not just in the test or the diversion.

On the other hand, what we think is that currently the Ukrainians are testing this first Russian line with quite a lot of caution. Nevertheless, progress has been reported.

But what must also be remembered is that a line is not just a linear trench. When we talk about the Russian first line, they are points of support, trenches, mined areas, areas battered by fire several kilometers deep. So, there is not just a materialized line that should be crossed, it is a series of obstacles that are arranged over a few kilometers deep that must be crossed. That's why it's not easy and it's not in a snap of the fingers that we can say, that's it, it's there, it's going to break through.

>> Read also: In the News: the moment of truth for Ukraine

For now, unlike the lightning offensives that allowed the Ukrainians to seize many territories last autumn, the Russian defense lines seem to be holding up?

Russians have been burying themselves for months, and when we say burying ourselves, it's not just digging holes. It is also preparing fire plans, laying minefields. ... Obviously, they really put torrents of mines everywhere. Their units are certainly not very well trained, not very seasoned, but they are enough, in any case, to hold on to the fire and to call the artillery to it. And the Russians still have a lot of artillery, a lot of rocket launchers.

We also see Russian aviation that had been preserved and that can intervene here in relative safety, first of all because it intervenes above its lines. It does not engage in depth into territory that is held by Ukrainians. And even above these lines, when it goes to attack Ukrainian units, the fact that the Russians have long pursued deep strikes on Ukrainian cities, it forces the Ukrainians to keep a lot of anti-aircraft systems, especially at short range, in their cities to protect civilian and military targets. So it diminishes the air assets that the Ukrainians have and this map of Russian aviation could be a big problem in the face of this offensive.

What should we think of the recent images of a group of Ukrainian tanks, including American Bradleys and a German Leopard, neutralized by Russian artillery?

What we can say for now, and this is quite significant, is that indeed it looks like a blunder, that is to say that a Ukrainian armored column that was rolling quite tightly, probably on an axis that was cleared by armored engineering vehicles, was spotted by drones and did not have short-range air defense to neutralize these drones. So the Russian drones called the artillery and since the tanks were on a road in minefields, they could not maneuver, they were too tight together. There are a few that had to be neutralized and after that the column was stuck. She tried to maneuver on the mines.

What is also very interesting that we see on the images is that these tanks have their hatch open, they have not burned. The difference between Western equipment and old Soviet equipment is that obviously, the crews for the most part had to survive and were able to get out and so the vehicles are probably salvageable and the people did not die. Which is very different. It is therefore necessary to put things into perspective. Admittedly, it is a setback, but for now, it is the only one we see and in quotation marks, it is not so serious, it must be able to regenerate.

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