A possible interim nuclear deal between the US and Iran would ease bilateral tensions, but it remains unclear whether the two sides will reach such an agreement, and even if they do, it would be extremely fragile and face implementation challenges.
The report quoted the British website Middle East Eye as saying last Thursday that Iran and the United States are close to concluding an interim agreement that would reduce Iran's uranium enrichment activities in exchange for limited sanctions relief, citing an Iranian official and a person close to the negotiations.
Under the deal, Iran will no longer enrich uranium to 60 percent or higher, will continue to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor and verify its nuclear program, and the United States will allow Iran to export up to one million barrels per day of oil and access some funds frozen abroad.
Stronger readiness on both sides
Although a deal may not be close, the United States appears more willing to negotiate an interim agreement that can maintain the status quo and reduce the risk of escalation and Iranian enrichment activities, he said. Since January, the Biden administration has been discussing with its European allies and Israel a proposal to negotiate an interim agreement with Tehran that would provide limited sanctions relief in exchange for Iran freezing some enrichment activities.
Stratfor commented that Iran's apparent willingness to negotiate an interim agreement, if confirmed, would be a radical change in policy, and may reflect Tehran's desire to improve relations with Saudi Arabia and secure a limited financial exemption before the 2024 U.S. elections. Moreover, Iran is likely concerned that the November 2024 U.S. presidential election will lead to a Republican administration that is almost certain to be more hawkish toward Iran.
Also, from Tehran's perspective, according to the report, a temporary deal that includes some incentives, such as some oil exports, would be a way to secure some subsidies and move around some of its assets frozen in places like South Korea.
Reduces tensions
If an interim deal is reached, it would significantly reduce U.S.-Iran tensions in the Middle East and associated risks, such as Iranian attacks on oil tankers, but such a deal would also face significant implementation difficulties as uncertainty over long-term sanctions would cause many Western financial companies to continue to avoid Iran-related transactions.
A deal that reduces Iran's enrichment activities would reduce pressure on the United States and Israel to carry out operations aimed at disrupting Iran's nuclear program that would provoke Iranian retaliation against Israel, the United States, or U.S. partners in the Middle East. Signing a deal with sanctions relief would also deter Iran from provocative actions for fear of stalling the deal.
If Biden or any other Democrat wins the White House in 2024, the report says, the limited deal between the two countries could be a step on the road to a viable new broad nuclear deal that resembles the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — the nuclear deal struck during the Obama administration.