After a year of deadlock, will Sweden finally get its membership card within the NATO club? Since the re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, one of only two of the 31 NATO countries with Hungary to have not yet ratified Swedish membership, the tone is resolutely optimistic on the side of Western officials.
Membership before the summit of the political and military organization in Vilnius in July would even be "absolutely possible", according to its secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, who announced on Thursday (June 1st) at a meeting in Oslo that he would soon visit Ankara.
"We have honoured all our commitments," said Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström, who was in Norway. "It's never been a sprint, it's a marathon and now we're seeing the end of it," he added.
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The day before, the United States again urged Turkey to give the green light without delay. "From the point of view of the United States, the time has come to finalize Sweden's accession to NATO," said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, adding that Sweden had taken "very important steps to address very legitimate concerns" of Turkey.
These measures include a new law banning activities linked to extremist groups, strengthening the country's terrorism laws. A pledge given to Ankara, which for months has accused Sweden of serving as a refuge for activists of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). A sworn enemy of the Turkish government, the PKK is classified as a terrorist organization not only by Ankara, but also by Sweden, the European Union and the United States.
Will these Swedish concessions be enough to change Turkey's position? Should we soon expect the end of this war of nerves between Ankara and Western countries? Elements of answer with Didier Billion, Deputy Director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris) and specialist of Turkey.
France 24: Is the entry into force on Thursday 1 June of a law to limit the activities of extremist groups in Sweden likely to change the Turkish position?
Didier Billion: We can see that the problem of the Turkish veto is no longer posed in exactly the same terms as it was three or four months ago. Obviously, there are advances towards Swedish accession, but this would be at the price of concessions on certain Turkish demands.
The new law to limit the activities of extremist groups provesthat Sweden has not mourned its NATO membership. This may not be enough, but it shows that Stockholm is in a very complicated situation.
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One can imagine that Sweden would even go so far as to expel a handful of Kurdish or Gülenist refugees [a movement inspired by Fethullah Gülen, accused by the government of having initiated a coup d'état in 2016], convicted of blood crimes. This is a bargain that could suit Turkey. This would be seen as a victory for Erdogan, who would once again demonstrate his intransigence on counterterrorism.
Can Erdogan's re-election favour the Swedish issue insofar as the nationalist discourse, very present during the campaign, may now be less virulent in Turkey?
We must not delude ourselves. Erdogan is not going to change his nationalist postures because he was re-elected. Internally, he has forged alliances with nationalist and ultranationalist forces that will themselves put pressure on him. We should therefore not expect a relaxation at the international level.
He will not make many concessions and if he does it will be because he has an interest in them. In my view, the recent optimistic statements of Western leaders should be handled with caution. If European heads of state imagine that it will be easier with Erdogan after his re-election, they are mistaken.
In my opinion, Turkey's strong pressure on Sweden and on the United States will continue, and then, at some point, there will be an agreement. It can be in a month or in six. It is an old habit of Turkish diplomacy in somewhat tense international discussions to twist the rope until the last moment before accepting any form of compromise.
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There was indeed an agreement with Finland [which became a member of NATO on April 4], even if it was obviously less complicated than with Sweden, which shelters these many Kurdish and Gülen political refugees. Erdogan will therefore continue to increase the pressure, but I think that at some point he will accept Sweden's membership.
Can this compromise that you are talking about come from the United States? Turkey appears to be waiting for a move from Washington after it was excluded from the U.S. F-35 stealth fighter jet program. A retaliatory measure after Ankara's purchase of a Russian S-400 anti-missile system in 2020...
This is a major contentious issue because Turkey had made a down payment [$1.4 billion] for the development of the F-35s. The training programme for Turkish pilots has also been halted altogether.
According to the Turkish press, there is talk of Washington agreeing to deliver new F-16s to Turkey and supplying parts for the American fighter jets that Turkey already has. This is a very important aspect of the current and future negotiations; I think this could encourage Erdogan to reconsider the Swedish issue. But for now, these are just rumors.
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However, it must be remembered that despite these tensions and the fact that Turkey is seeking to maintain good relations with Russia despite the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Ankara continues to consider NATO as its best guarantee in terms of security. The diplomatic conundrum with Sweden may not be quite over, but there are new elements that suggest that it is being resolved.
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