MOSCOW – With clear interest and moment by moment, the Russian media and observers followed the course of the presidential elections in Turkey until the announcement of their results, in an indication of the importance of the event for Russia, which is busy arranging the conditions of its regional environment, and seeking to fortify this environment from becoming an additional springboard for Western threats against it.

Following the initial announcement that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won a new term, analytical programs and the media were crowded with readings by various observers and political analysts about the reflection of the results of the Turkish elections on the future of relations between the two sides and the possible effects on the relationship with the West, in light of the ongoing realignment process in the wake of the crisis between Russia and the West.

Hence, it seems logical that Russian observers consider the results of the Turkish elections as an event of global importance, not only for Turkish citizens.

Turkish elections saw great interest from the Russian side (Al Jazeera)

Ensuring the continuity of understandings

Director of the Center for Political Forecasting Denis Kirkudinov, considered – in an interview with Al Jazeera Net – that Erdogan's victory in a new presidential term is a guarantee for the continuation and strengthening of the existing understandings between Moscow and Ankara, which were reached after a "complex labor" entered by bilateral relations, especially because of the Syrian and Ukrainian crises.

According to him, Moscow sees Erdogan as a pragmatic figure with a large margin of independence in making decisions related to regional and international affairs, which was highlighted in the steps taken by Ankara in the Syrian and Ukrainian files, which were clearly met with annoyance from the US administration.

Kirkudinov cites as an example what happened in October 2022, when the European Parliament presented – as a separate topic for discussion – Turkey's refusal to impose sanctions on Russia and its transformation into a Russian "transit center", which European politicians considered a real problem.

In other dimensions, Erdogan's Turkey has become more important to Russia after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, turning into an increasingly vital market for Russian minerals, buying almost twice as much Russian oil in 2022 as in 2021.

He explains that as a result of the recent understandings, Turkey has become playing an important logistical role, as Russian cargo ships pass through its waters to the Mediterranean Sea, "hence the initiative of Russian President Vladimir Putin to extend additional gas pipelines from Russia to Turkey, and to establish a gas center in the country."

Karkudinov continues that Erdogan's policy is still beneficial to Moscow, because he is one of the politicians who think first and foremost about the prosperity of their country, and has the ability to "twin" stability in the internal situation while settling the files that directly concern it in the external arena.

Rooting a path

In addition to the above data, international affairs analyst Dmitry Kim believes that even if Erdogan loses the election, it will not be easy for the country's general political trajectory and Ankara's foreign relations to take on a new character overnight, given the radical transformations that Erdogan and his party have enshrined.

No matter who is in power, this politician will have to govern the country taking into account important local and global trends that have developed in recent years, and it will no longer be possible to stop or reverse them.

Kim argues that the results of the presidential elections in Turkey, which led to Erdogan's victory, will naturally be positive and welcome for Moscow, given the positions of the candidates.

In his view, the anti-Moscow rhetoric of opposition presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu was not directed at the Turkish voter, but at foreign political powers, as the purpose of Kılıçdaroğlu's attacks on Russia was to show outside powers that, if he wins, he will choose a pro-Western path.

In this context, Kim points to other statements by the opposition candidate, in which he explicitly declared that it was necessary to show Russia that Turkey is a NATO member state and that he would join the sanctions imposed on Moscow, describing this talk as not because there is a "buyer" inside Turkey, but outside it.

He stresses that the course of Russian-Turkish relations after Erdogan's victory will continue according to the same direction that preceded the elections, because of the common interest, and both Moscow and Ankara are interested in preserving them.

#عاجل | The Kremlin: #بوتين expresses appreciation for the #أردوغان's contribution to strengthening relations between #روسيا and Turkey #Turkey_elects pic.twitter.com/KqSpA3r2Jc

— Al Jazeera (@AJArabic) May 28, 2023

Vital relationships

Russia is important to Turkey as a source of energy resources, and Russian citizens account for more than 10% of the tourist flow, a vital source of the tourism sector, which accounts for about 10% of Turkey's GDP.

In addition, Kim points out that Russia and Ukraine are major food suppliers to Turkey, and Moscow's approval is necessary for the success of the "grain deal," thus allowing the supply of agricultural products from Ukrainian ports.

The United States continues to gradually lose its leading position in the world, and many of its allies pursue an independent policy without regard to Washington, against the backdrop of the growing role of China, India, Brazil, as well as Turkey, which ultimately plays into Moscow's interest.