Beijing, May 5 (Zhongxin.com) -- The International Seminar and Report Conference on "China's Modernization and the Future of the 'Belt and Road'" was held in Beijing on May 20. At the meeting, the report "Too Outrageous: A Critique of the "Peak Theory of China's Rise" was released, which is the first research result to refute the Western "Peak Theory of China's Rise".
In response to some international voices about the "peak theory of China's rise", the report pointed out that these studies have major flaws. Including the unclear definition of concepts, whether it is the peak of economic growth or the peak of scale, whether it is slowing or stagnating, whether it is based on nominal GDP at market exchange rates or actual GDP at purchasing power parity, these issues are not clearly stated in relevant studies; Logically deficient, grasping some partial and non-major contradictions of the Chinese economy to infer the overall situation of the Chinese economy; The research perspective is highly short-sighted, and the research lacks medium and long-term basic analysis; Weak studies lead to strong conclusions.
The report believes that the "slowing growth rate to the top" is contrary to logic, common sense and historical facts. First, economic logic tells us that the slowdown in China's economic growth in the past 12 years is a natural consequence of the evolution of economic development stages. Second, mathematical common sense points out that a slowdown in growth does not indicate an absolute peak, nor does it mean a relative peak. The data shows that China's economy has been far from slowing to zero over the past 12 years, and there is no problem of reaching an absolute peak. In addition, from 2013 to 2021, China's GDP growth averaged 6.6% per year, still the highest among the world's major economies, and there is no relative peak. Third, the historical fact is that China's economic rise continues in absolute and relative terms during the slowdown in the growth slowdown.
In addition to refuting the fallacies, the report makes predictions about China's economic situation. The report pointed out that China's economic situation will continue to rise, driven by the four major engines of scientific and technological leaps, structural upgrading, the rise of urban agglomerations/metropolitan areas and further reform and opening up, China's economy will maintain medium-high growth, continuously improve economic quality, and further move towards modernization.
The seminar was hosted by Chinese Minmin University and the Chinese Minmin Institute of Foreign Affairs, and hosted by the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of Chinese Minmin University. (End)