After a highly competitive round of voting, none of the candidates for the Turkish presidential election succeeded in obtaining the required threshold, so what are the chances of the competitors in the second round based on their strengths?
Turkey's political debate is raging ahead of a second round of a dramatic presidential election that could mark a milestone in the country's history. The two candidates have begun working to rally supporters and win over the undecided, in an electoral race that is further fueled by the economic situation and the refugee issue.
Current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who represents the People's Alliance, and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the opposition People's Alliance, are competing in the run-off to resolve the presidential elections.
Ali Bakir, an expert in Turkish affairs and professor of international relations at the Ibn Khaldun Center at Qatar University, said in his interview with the program "Scenarios" (2023/5/18) that the chances of the candidates still exist, but in practice it seems that Erdogan's chances are more than Kılıçdaroğlu, as victory in parliament gives a morale boost to the president's supporters, especially in light of the presence of the public's alliance that seems coherent and harmonious.
He stressed that the two sides will work to mobilize the public, especially after their surprise that the result was not decided in the first round, pointing out that the opposition is trying to focus on Erdogan's weaknesses, especially the refugee files and the economic reality of the current government so that it can win the largest number of votes.
Is Erdogan in trouble?
For his part, writer and political analyst Yusuf Kanli said that the election results were a great disappointment, because the difference between the two opponents was expected to be large, noting that Erdogan feels overconfident in the second round, while if he cannot convince voters to go to the polls, it may put him in trouble.
He also stressed that the bet is to arouse enthusiasm and support voters, expecting Erdogan to win these elections because the majority of parliament is from his party, which will make it easier for him to govern, but this does not mean the lack of chances of Klejeddar to win, as explained by researcher on Turkish affairs Dr. Omer Korkmaz.
Regarding the fear of abstaining from voting, Dr. Korkmaz explained that voting for the Turkish citizen is a matter of patriotism, so there will be no retreat from what was done in the first round, and he did not expect any decline at the popular level in voting, considering that the result cannot be decided for Erdogan, but the first result showed his chances of winning more.
It is noteworthy that the required threshold in the elections is (50% + one vote), as President Erdogan narrowly approached the threshold (49.51%), while his rival Kılıçdaroğlu received (44.88%). The rest of the votes went to third contender Sinan Ogan (5.17%) and Muharrem Ince who withdrew from the race (0.44%).
With this result, Turkey is on a date on the 28th of this month with the run-off to resolve the presidential race between the candidate of the People's Alliance, current President Erdogan, and the candidate of the opposition People's Alliance, Kılıçdaroğlu, as each of the competitors seeks, in the remaining few days to run in the run-off, to employ their maximum energies and try to avoid some mistakes and conclude more alliances and understandings in the hope of winning the presidency.