Europe 1 with AFP 7:28 p.m., September 01, 2022

Bruno Le Maire estimated Thursday that in the event of a total cut in gas supplies from Russia, French growth could lose "up to a point" in gross domestic product (GDP).

These tensions over gas supply will be "a decisive element of French growth in 2023", he added.

In the event of a total cut in gas supplies from Russia, French growth could lose "up to a point" in gross domestic product (GDP), said Thursday in Paris the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire.

Russian President "Vladimir Putin may decide tomorrow to completely cut off gas to Europe, in which case we will have an impact on French growth", warned the number 2 of the French government during a lunch with journalists.

Regarding the magnitude of this impact, "I gave the figure of 0.5%" in recent days, he recalled.

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But "depending on the impact" that a complete shutdown of Russian gas supplies will have on Germany, "and the possibility of having a recession in Germany, we can have an impact that would go up to a point of GDP", estimated Bruno Le Maire.

Since Russia launched a military offensive in Ukraine at the end of February, the European Union has adopted several packages of economic sanctions against Moscow, to which the Kremlin has responded by gradually reducing gas deliveries to the Old Continent.

A forecast of +1.4% of French GDP in 2023

These tensions over gas supply will be "a determining factor in French growth in 2023", added Bruno Le Maire.

In its "stability program" sent in July to the European Commission, Bercy forecast a 1.4% increase in French GDP in 2023. The forecast of the Ministry of the Economy is identical to that of the OECD ( Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) but significantly higher than the expectations of the International Monetary Fund (1%).

“The economic situation, geopolitics is not well oriented”, observed Bruno Le Maire.

"In the short term", apart from gas supply constraints, the minister cited "the economic uncertainties in the United States, China and those weighing on Germany, our main trading partner", which is also large Russian gas consumer.

It reaffirmed its growth forecast for 2022, at 2.5%, the day after INSEE confirmed a rebound of half a point in the French economy in the spring, after a decline of 0.2 % in the first trimester.