The current government will continue until the dispute is resolved
The prospects for solutions diminish in Iraq with the complexity of the political crisis
Demonstrations in Basra to protest the deteriorating conditions.
dad
Muqtada al-Sadr's efforts to form a government of competencies reached a dead end.
Reuters
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The leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, on Sunday, carried out his threat to submit their resignations from his bloc's 73 deputies from the Iraqi parliament, after eight months of stalling the political process in its place, in a move that may further "confuse" the political situation, and analysts expect it to ignite the street again.
■ How will Sadr's move affect the future of Parliament?
Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi said in a joint press conference with his Jordanian counterpart Abdul Karim al-Daghmi in Amman the day before yesterday that “the membership of any member of the House of Representatives ends immediately upon submitting the resignation.”
But some political analysts point out that it requires a parliamentary vote.
The head of the Center for Political Thinking, and the Iraqi political analyst, Ihsan Al-Shammari, explains that “if we proceed with the Law of Procedure (of the House of Representatives) of 2007, Article No. 19, then the resignations need a vote” in Parliament.
The political impact of this step remains the main one.
Al-Sadr owns a large bloc in Parliament, and therefore her resignation “will generate a conviction among most political forces that this parliament will not continue,” according to Al-Shammari.
After eight months of early legislative elections and countless political initiatives, the political process in Iraq has not progressed.
This depends on the consensus between the Shiite parties that have dominated the political process since 2003.
On the one hand, al-Sadr pushed to form a "majority" government with the "Save a Homeland" coalition, which includes Sunnis and Kurds.
As for his opponents in the pro-Iranian coordination framework, they want a consensual government that includes all Shiite forces, as is the custom.
Al-Shammari explains that one of the reasons that prompted this resignation was "Al-Sadr's feeling that there was an attempt to break him politically" and "his realization that Iran would not allow him to change the rules of the political game."
■ government without chest
Al-Shammari believes that “forming a government” with those who remain in Parliament in the event of proceeding with the resignation, is “a difficult matter.”
The resignation of al-Sadr's deputies, if it goes ahead, and their replacement in accordance with the law, with those who obtained the second highest number of votes in the same constituency, may allow the coordination framework to form a government.
However, “a similar government will not see the light and will fall quickly,” according to Al-Shammari, in a country where political crises are often resolved behind the scenes, and not under the dome of Parliament, which may put the political process at a point of “no return” and lead to the dissolution of Parliament, which requires a vote from Parliament itself. .
Since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime in 2003, Muqtada al-Sadr has become a major political actor in Iraq.
He was staunchly against the US invasion, but today he maintains complex relations with Iran, the major neighbor close to the coordination framework, and which many Iraqis denounce its increasing influence in the country.
Al-Shammari adds that "even the pro-Iranian coordination framework, which may feel that it has achieved a victory over Muqtada al-Sadr, the majority of parties in it are well aware that these (resignations) are the end of the political process."
For Al-Shammari, this means that "the current government will continue until the dispute is resolved," or Sadr is persuaded to reverse his decision.
In turn, Iraqi political analyst Hamza Haddad believes that "time will be decisive in knowing whether al-Sadr is serious about this step, or is it a new tactic to put the blame on the other political parties and buy time."
Al-Sadr, for example, had announced before the October 2021 elections that he would boycott them, before rejoining the political process.
■ What about the street
The current government headed by Mustafa Al-Kazemi was formed in the year 2020 after long negotiations and unprecedented popular demonstrations, to protest the living and economic conditions, but at its core, it was an opposition to the entire political system.
Haddad expects that "new demonstrations will erupt this summer, which is always a possibility with rising temperatures and poor services, such as electricity and water in the south," as well as denouncing the lack of progress in the political process.
In anticipation of this popular protest that may ignite the street again, as happened in 2019, Al-Sadr withdrew from the political process to “remove himself” from blame, according to Al-Shammari.
It is expected that there will be a popular movement, "in which the October activists will participate in order to return the demonstrations to the Iraqi street, given that the current parliament was unable to complete its constitutional entitlements."
Therefore, al-Sadr found "that resignation is the best thing that can whiten his page from the mistakes of the current political class."
As for Hamza Haddad, "It seems that Muqtada al-Sadr wants to deflect blame for the delay in forming a government, through this step, to claim that he is not the one who obstructs the political process, as he is the one who went so far as to give up power completely."
As happened in 2019, al-Sadr may join these demonstrations with civil forces, but with or without al-Sadr, “the demonstrations are present,” according to Al-Shammari, as a result of “deep reasons targeting the foundations of the political system that must change.”
After eight months of early legislative elections and countless political initiatives, the political process in Iraq has not progressed. This depends on the consensus between the Shiite parties that have dominated the political process since 2003.
Al-Sadr owns a large bloc in Parliament, and therefore her resignation will generate a conviction among most political forces that this parliament will not continue.
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