Paris (AFP)
The RN will he win his first region?
What future for potential candidates for the Elysée?
Will the majority limit the breakage?
Ten months before the presidential election, the challenges of regional and departmental elections are multiple.
But abstention risks being the big winner of the first round on Sunday.
Some 48 million voters are called to the polls, how many will go?
According to polls, the abstention rate promises to reach abysmal proportions, around 60%, at a time when the Covid epidemic, which postponed the poll for three months, ebbs and life finds a semblance of normality.
The skills devolved to the regions (transport, high schools, vocational training, etc.) and departments (colleges, RSA, social assistance, etc.) nevertheless affect the daily life of the French as closely as possible.
But, at the end of a campaign anesthetized by the health crisis, interest has never taken off for a ballot whose stakes are both exacerbated and exceeded by the proximity of the presidential election.
Security has thus become one of the major subjects of the campaign, although it is not a competence of the regions.
Two potential right-wing candidates at the Elysee Palace, Xavier Bertrand and Valérie Pécresse, announced that they would stop politics on the evening of the second round on June 27 if they were not re-elected in Hauts-de-France and in France. Ile-de-France, helping to nationalize the deadline.
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The National Gathering also intends to use these regional as a launching pad for 2022. Again on Friday, Marine Le Pen, already declared candidate for the Elysee Palace, insisted on "the national scope of this ballot" while his party does not appear never have been so well placed to win the first region in its history.
- Republican Front -
Favored by a proportional vote, the RN is given the lead in the first round in six out of thirteen regions, in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (Paca), Center-Val-de-Loire, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté , Occitanie, Nouvelle-Aquitaine and Brittany.
In the polls, he is also behind the outgoing presidents in Hauts-de-France, Grand Est and Normandy.
In 2015, the momentum of the far-right party was already strong after the first round.
But it had broken against the dyke of the Republican front, erected in particular by the sacrifice of the Socialist Party in Paca and in Hauts-de-France.
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This time, that roadblock seems much more fragile and the traditional parties more reluctant to fade away completely for the next six years.
The in-between rounds promises intense negotiations, until the filing of the lists on Tuesday 6:00 p.m.
The psychodrama in Paca, where the rapprochement between the outgoing LR president Renaud Muselier with LREM has precipitated the right into an open crisis, gave a foretaste of the clashes to come.
Six years ago, the right and the center managed to keep seven regions and the PS five.
Since then, these two great government forces have loosened at the national level, but are counting on their local roots to limit the damage.
- Reshuffle -
The ex-LR Valérie Pécresse and Xavier Bertrand remain well placed, just like Jean Rottner in the Grand Est and Laurent Wauquiez, another possible candidate for the Elysée, in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes.
The position of the PS is more precarious, while the Greens intend to take advantage of the dynamic which has brought them to the head of several large cities in the municipal elections.
Environmentalists are betting in particular on a success in Pays de la Loire with Matthieu Orphelin.
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As a whole, the left is divided, with the exception of Hauts-de-France, where the ecologist Karima Delli has managed to unite it around his candidacy.
The presidential majority approaches the ballot with modest ambitions, with Minister Marc Fesneau, a Modem as the main asset in Center-Val-de-Loire.
The majority especially cultivate the hope of placing themselves in the position of kingmakers.
In the event of a big slap in the face, the question of a government reshuffle may arise, while Emmanuel Macron must present in early July the roadmap for the last year of his five-year term which he wishes "useful".
For the departmental elections, the scenario is identical: the outgoing ones will have to face the push of the RN, which again does not hold any of them.
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Five overseas communities - Mayotte, Réunion, Guadeloupe, Guyana and Martinique - are also called to the polls to renew the elected representatives of their department, regions or local authority.
© 2021 AFP