Brexit: ultimatum or bluff ... what is Boris Johnson playing?
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in Downing Street in London on December 10, 2020. REUTERS - SIMON DAWSON
Text by: RFI Follow
6 min
This Sunday, December 13, London and Brussels should indicate what follow-up they will have decided to give to the talks on their post-Brexit relationship.
The positions stiffened at the end of the week, suggesting that each party was ready for the eventuality of a "no deal".
On the British side, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been blowing hot and cold in recent days and it's hard to read his game.
Publicity
Read more
With our correspondent in London,
Muriel Delcroix
What exactly does Boris Johnson want: to end this divorce abruptly or amicably?
The Conservative leader has blurred the signals so well that the mystery remains complete.
And if he doesn't know it himself, his strategy seems to push the European Union (EU) to its limits and force it to make the decision itself.
A tactic that would be to its advantage because if the Europeans end up agreeing to make concessions to conclude a trade agreement, British pride will be safe.
And if Brussels does not give in and a “no deal” takes place, then the Prime Minister could blame the intransigence of the European steamroller which had to be resisted in the name of British sovereignty.
Boris Johnson and his government have already prepared spirits by repeating for months that the country could perfectly prosper with an Australian-style relationship, that is to say minimal.
And yet the fact that London and Brussels fail to whistle the end of the game, and insist so publicly on the potentially negative consequences of no deal, suggests that they could still at the last minute opt out. move away from the precipice.
►
See also: Brexit: relations are strained between the EU and the United Kingdom
Australia warns the British
For months, Boris Johnson has indeed assured that the United Kingdom will be able to prosper perfectly thanks to an "Australian-style agreement" with its European neighbors.
A euphemism to avoid evoking a return in reality to relations according to the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO) with high taxes to the key.
Australia is also the first to regret this situation: questioned on the
BBC
at the end of the week, its former Prime Minister Malcom Turnbull warned the British that they would be "
disappointed
".
"
There are very big obstacles to trade between Australia and the European Union which we are seeking to overcome by just negotiating a free trade agreement with Europe at present and the Australians would not qualify our trade relations with Europe. of
"satisfactory", he noted.
You know, beware of what you call yourself: Australia's relationship with the EU is not, from a business standpoint, one that Britain would want, frankly.
"
Australia has only a few specific agreements in place with the European bloc, including cooperation at the scientific level and regarding the wine trade, which would not be the case for the UK if it left without a deal.
On the other hand, the immediate effects of a “no deal” on January 1 would be, with the return of customs duties, heavy blockages and delays at the border and a sharp increase in the price of food in supermarkets.
What consequence for French and British SMEs?
France is the gateway to the United Kingdom.
More than 80% of the flow of goods leaving Great Britain across the Channel transit to Europe through one of the nine entry points located in France.
Laurent Dommergues is a tax lawyer for the GMBA firm.
He advises businesses in the merchant sector in the UK and Europe.
For SMEs on both camps, more fragile than large groups, the stakes are high, according to him:
The famous "deal" in question would mainly aim for this sector of activity - the movement of goods - to arrive at a negotiation on customs duties at a preferential tariff.
So this is the stake of the “deal” which is pending.
Laurent Dommergues, tax lawyer in the consulting firm GMBA
Ariane Gaffuri
► Also listen: Brexit: concerns of English and European companies in the face of uncertainty
Newsletter
Receive all international news directly in your mailbox
I subscribe
Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application
google-play-badge_FR
European Union
United Kingdom
Brexit
Boris Johnson
On the same subject
Brexit: EU issues "emergency measures" in prospect of no deal
Correspondents' world tour
No-deal Brexit is increasingly becoming reality
Brexit: relations are strained between the EU and the United Kingdom