Economic factor: how Trump's rating began to decline amid the spread of coronavirus

The approval rating of the head of the White House fell to 45%. Such conclusions were made by CNN reporters who analyzed a number of key opinion polls across the country. At the same time, more than half of the US population (51%) believes that Trump is not doing its job against the backdrop of the pandemic.

Presented television channel data Poll of Polls (. English "poll of polls» -. RT ) are the arithmetic mean of the five recently conducted nationwide independent surveys Gallup, Fox News, Quinnipiac University, Monmouth University, and CNN in conjunction with independent research company SSRS. All studies, except for the survey of the Gallup Public Opinion Institute, which was more general in nature and reflected the opinion of Americans about the economic situation in the country, were dedicated to the approval rating of Trump's actions. Questions were asked by the adult population and registered voters.

According to reporters, the approval rating, which was relatively stable throughout the entire term of Trump's presidency, initially increased slightly during the spread of the coronavirus epidemic in the United States. However, after a month of quarantine, the popularity of the head of the White House began to decline, primarily due to the worsening economic situation in the country.

“A new Gallup poll conducted on Friday revealed a record drop in confidence in economic conditions - in March 54% of respondents described the economic conditions in the country as excellent or good, and in April only 27%. The Gallup Center said that this is the biggest drop in economic confidence since 1992, ”the TV channel reports.

Recall that today the United States is the first in the world in the number of patients with coronavirus infection. So, according to Johns Hopkins University, as of April 18, the total number of infected people exceeded 715 thousand. At least 37 thousand people with confirmed COVID-19 died.

At the same time, Donald Trump said during a briefing that the number of coronavirus victims in the US in the near future could increase to 65 thousand.

• The official residence of the US President
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• © Jonathan Ernst

“Displeasing”

As stated in an interview with RT, Director of the US Roosevelt Foundation for the Study of the USA at Moscow State University, Yuri Rogulev, the Americans really became more critical of the head of the White House.

“Of course, it’s a blow to the economy against the backdrop of a pandemic - the main reason that Trump’s rating has fallen. After all, a large number of people in the USA found themselves in a difficult situation because of this and are now showing their dissatisfaction, ”the expert noted.

As The New York Times reported earlier, the US economy lost about the same number of jobs over the past month as it has been created over the past decade. From July 2009 to February 2020, the number of jobs in the country increased by approximately 22 million.

According to political analyst Alexander Asafov, a decrease in Trump’s rating speaks first of all of American society’s awareness of the complexity of the situation that arose due to the spread of coronavirus.

"The Americans began to realize that the threat from the coronavirus is not virtual, as evidenced by the terrible death toll," the analyst said.

In addition, the decline in oil prices could affect the opinion of ordinary citizens about the president’s policy.

“Trump promised the Americans to reduce unemployment and achieve economic growth. Before the pandemic, he partially succeeded, but the spread of the coronavirus practically nullified everything that was done by the head of the White House. And as soon as the economic indicators, which are the priority for Trump, give negative dynamics, his rating falls under the spotlight, ”the expert explained.

However, the decline in approval of Trump’s policy is still not so significant, Rogulev believes.

“The fall in the Trump rating to 45% can be regarded as insignificant. This is a difference of a few percent. If the rating fell by half, we could talk about the seriousness of the situation for the American president. And so we are talking only about a certain decrease in popularity, ”the analyst said.

• NY
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At the same time, Trump may well rectify the situation, Alexander Asafov believes. In his opinion, the head of the White House has already begun work in this direction.

In particular, on April 18, during a briefing, Trump announced a $ 19 billion farmers aid program for coronavirus pandemic sufferers. He specified that the money would go both to direct payments to landowners and to the purchase of their products, which would be transferred to those in need.

“The allocation of such assistance to farmers in a pandemic is Trump’s measure, which he hopes to reduce the discontent of ordinary Americans with the economic situation in the country ... Trump in this case is trying to raise his rating by financing a specific target group, as well as pave the way for the upcoming elections ”, The expert explained.

Chances for re-election

Recall, November 3, 2020 in the United States is scheduled for the presidential election. In connection with the spread of coronavirus infection in American society, there were concerns that the vote would be postponed.

However, in early April, the head of the White House announced that general elections in the United States, including the presidential, would be held on time. He said this to reporters, answering the question whether the American authorities are doing something to guarantee the holding of elections according to the plan, even if a second wave of coronavirus happens at this time. 

According to Alexander Asafov, the likelihood that the elections will be postponed is "not too high." In addition, the expert noted, Trump understands where he suffers from reputational costs, and to raise the rating, "he will be primarily activated in the foreign political arena."

“The head of the White House will begin to accuse WHO and China, as well as other geopolitical opponents, of all the troubles of the USA even more intensely. He will use this technique to switch the attention of Americans from their actions in a pandemic to external factors, ”the expert said.

At the same time, Asafov believes that Trump will "do everything to raise his rating."

“The current head of the White House is ready to do a lot so that closer to the election the level of approval of his policy will show growth. This year, all his actions and decisions will somehow be related to re-election. In particular, Trump will continue to allocate money to those groups that are potentially members of his “nuclear” electorate. This is the simplest and most understandable tool for Trump in order to correct a shaky rating and earn points in the election race, ”the analyst said.

• Posters in support of US President Donald trump
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• © Emily Elconin

Asafov believes that as a result of such steps, the US president will be able to normalize the level of approval of his policy.

“It is possible that soon we will see changes in numbers - the rating will begin to grow again,” the expert predicted.

At the same time, analysts agree that Trump’s chances of re-election are too early to assess - much will depend on how the United States copes with coronavirus infection.

“If the epidemic passes and the US economy manages to recover a little by November, then, of course, Trump will look like a winner, his chances of success will increase many times over. And if the economic situation does not normalize, Trump will be among the losers. And then the likelihood that he will be able to be re-elected will sharply decrease, ”concluded Yuri Rogulev.