Although the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Republic, Ali Khamenei, had previously announced, on September 17, 2019, that there would be no negotiations with the United States of America at any level, President Hassan Rouhani was keen, on December 4, to indicate that the negotiation With Washington still a possibility. Although this indicates, at first glance, that there is a discrepancy in the positions of the main institutions of the Iranian regime regarding the trends of interaction with the United States of America in general, during the next stage, reflection on Rouhani's statements provides several indications, the most prominent of which is that Iran is considering a new framework For negotiations with international powers, it accommodates the reservations made by the guide and other institutions in the system over the option of direct negotiations with Washington.

An existing option

Rouhani, in his speech to the Tehran smart city forum on December 4, did not rule out the possibility of new negotiations with the United States of America. This appears to have been linked to the announcement, on December 7, 2019, of a Swiss-brokered prison exchange deal between Tehran and Washington. Although Rouhani adopted the same condition, which he had announced during his participation in the meetings of the United Nations General Assembly at the end of last September, regarding the lifting of US sanctions, in response to the efforts made by France to arrange a meeting between him and the American President Donald Trump, the most important thing It can be drawn from Rouhani's statements, that he is trying to expand the scope of negotiation, focusing on multilateral negotiation, and not only bilateral negotiation, as he said that "there is no problem for Tehran to conduct negotiations with America, provided that the entire ban is lifted," adding that " When America lifts the embargo on Iran, he will be in m The six countries conduct negotiations with them even at the level of leaders ».

At first glance, this may indicate a discrepancy in the positions and visions of the guide and the president about the mechanisms best suited to deal with the pressures imposed by the United States of America on Iran, through the sanctions that produced unprecedented repercussions on the ground, which were evident in the aggravation of the economic crisis, and the decline in oil exports Significantly Iranian. However, a careful evaluation of these statements suggests that Rouhani is talking about, to a large extent, not unlike what was previously announced by other leaders of the regime.

It seems that most of the influential institutions in the system agree on two things: The first: that negotiations with international powers are not a rejected option, on the contrary, they may be acceptable, at least at the current stage. And the second: that these negotiations should be conducted on different grounds and determinants from those on which the negotiations that ended in the nuclear agreement on 14 July 2015 were conducted, given that these parties are seeing that although this agreement included several benefits for Tehran, at the various economic levels And strategy and technology, the withdrawal of US President Donald Trump from him, which dealt a severe blow to him, turned those gains into losses that do not seem easy, especially at the level of disrupting the rapid Iranian movement towards achieving the greatest progress in the nuclear program.

Several goals

Hence, this framework, which Rouhani's statements refer to, can achieve several goals for Tehran, the most prominent of which are:

1- Overriding Khamenei's "veto"

The multilateral negotiations allow overcoming the refusal previously expressed by the Supreme Leader of the Republic towards conducting bilateral and direct negotiations with the United States of America, which coincided with the efforts made by France to bring the points of view between Washington and Tehran, both during the G-7 summit in Biarritz, from 24 to 27 August 2019, or at the United Nations General Assembly meetings at the end of September of the same year. Khamenei said, on September 17th, that "there will be no negotiations with the United States of America at any level." On November 3, he stressed, "negotiations with America will not solve Iran's problems."

Holding negotiations with the latter, within the framework of the "5 + 1" group, will not represent a problem or a conflict with this approach adopted by the guide, given that the latter's statements suggest that his red line is only, in direct and bilateral negotiations with Washington, similar to what she was seeking France to achieve, especially in New York.

2- Return Washington to the agreement

This expanded framework means, if accepted by the international powers, that the United States of America will return to the nuclear agreement, with all that this allows to renew the gains that Iran was preparing to obtain before the American withdrawal on May 8, 2018, in line with the condition it adopts. Rouhani to conduct these negotiations, which is to lift all the sanctions imposed by Washington on Tehran. Of course, this is not acceptable to Washington, which not only withdraws from the agreement and imposed sanctions on Tehran, but rather seeks to urge its allies from European countries to adopt the same step, in parallel with its continuous criticism of the measures taken by the latter, to enhance the chances of continuing the implementation of the nuclear agreement, As evident in its reaction to the decision of six European countries, on November 29, to participate in the "Instex" mechanism to continue commercial dealings with Tehran.

3- Confining negotiations in nuclear

Iran has consistently rejected the calls by Western countries to negotiate other files of concern to it, such as the ballistic missile program and the regional role. Hence, Iran is trying to take advantage of the escalatory measures it has taken, in relation to reducing its commitments to the nuclear agreement, not only to put pressure on international powers, but also with the aim of sending messages to it that any possible negotiations will be limited to discussing the escalating mutual measures taken by Tehran and Washington during The last period, and will not extend to other files, especially the ballistic missile program.

4- Attracting international support

Through the multilateral negotiating mechanism, Iran is trying to strengthen its negotiating position vis-à-vis Washington, in order to attract the support of the "4 + 1" powers - Russia, China, France and Britain alongside Germany - for its position, which places Washington in a difficult position during those possible negotiations, in a way It explains Tehran's keenness to promote that there is a consensus with the "4 + 1" forces to hold Washington responsible for what the agreement has reached so far, even though this is not in line with the data on the ground, which indicates that the differences gradually widen between Iran and European countries, especially After a step to re-enrich uranium at the Fordow reactor, after which France threatened to emke The intention to work to restore the international sanctions mechanism, which has been frozen in accordance with the nuclear agreement, and Security Council Resolution 2231.

Although these forces were keen to postpone this option, during the meeting of the joint committee for the nuclear agreement, which was held in Vienna on December 6, at the same time, it called on Iran to desist from what it called a "violation" of the nuclear agreement.

Iranian approach

It can be said that the Iranian approach to negotiations faces obstacles that do not seem easy, especially since the beginning of 2020 may witness an escalation, in light of Iran's continued eagerness to take more measures to reduce the level of its obligations in the nuclear agreement, in a manner that will impose new changes in international positions, especially European , Towards her.

Through the multilateral negotiating mechanism, Iran is trying to strengthen its negotiating position vis-a-vis Washington, in order to attract the support of the "4 + 1" powers - Russia, China, France and Britain alongside Germany - for its position, which places Washington in a difficult position, during these possible negotiations.

In his speech to the smart city of Tehran on December 4, President Hassan Rouhani did not rule out the possibility of new negotiations with the United States of America. This appears to have been linked to the announcement, on December 7, 2019, of a Swiss-brokered prison exchange deal between Tehran and Washington.