"Sensing public opinion": why Germany announced its readiness to strengthen the presence of the Bundeswehr abroad

The German armed forces are able to increase their activity abroad, said German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. She said this at a meeting with the airborne brigade of the Bundeswehr, stationed in Saarland.

“Even today we would be able to take on additional foreign missions,” said Kramp-Karrenbauer.

Speaking about the possible foreign policy directions of the Bundeswehr, the Minister of Defense mentioned Mali. This country has Islamic radicals associated with the separatist movement of local Tuaregs. Since 2013, in Mali, in order to maintain peace, there has been a multidimensional integrated mission of the United Nations Stabilization in Mali (MINUSMA), consisting of military police, instructors, and civilian personnel. Most of the participants in the mission come from African countries. But there is also a German contingent numbering several hundred people.

In addition, the French Armed Forces operate in Mali, which participate in clashes with the radicals, often leading to losses. So, on November 26, the presidential press service said that 13 French soldiers were killed as a result of an accidental collision of two helicopters during the military operation "Barkhan".

Crump-Karrenbauer admitted that the situation in Mali would require an expansion of the Bundeswehr’s presence in that country. However, she added that “at present, at least, I have not received any specific requests from the French side.”

Political question

In total, according to the data published on the official website of the Bundeswehr, there are about 3 thousand German troops outside the borders of Germany. They participate in 12 operations in the following regions: Kosovo, Mali, Western Sahara, Afghanistan, Syria, the Horn of Africa and adjacent maritime territories, the Mediterranean region, Lebanon, Iraq, South Sudan, Sudan.

Among the most significant foreign military missions of Germany - the participation of the Bundeswehr in NATO operations in Syria and Afghanistan. The mandate for the stay of the German armed forces on Afghan territory was extended by the Bundestag until 2020. By this time, there may remain up to 1.3 thousand troops of Germany. As for Syria, here the Bundeswehr plays a supporting role in the international anti-terrorism coalition: it participates in reconnaissance operations and air refueling of aircraft, and also represents personnel for headquarters. However, the United States persuades Germany to send ground troops to Syria to replace the American contingent withdrawn from there.

• German Army Bundeswehr soldiers during exercises in Münster
• Reuters
• © Fabian Bimmer

“In principle, the appearance of a ground contingent in Syrian territory cannot be ruled out. We must not forget that the EU countries have a UN mandate to be present in this state, ”said Alexander Tevdoi-Burmuli, associate professor of integration processes at MGIMO, in an interview with RT.

He also admitted that the Bundeswehr military personnel may appear as part of an international peacekeeping mission in Ukraine if the question arises of its formation during the peace process in the Donbass. At the same time, Alexander Tevdoi-Burmuli emphasized that so far the discussions about where else the German peacekeepers can take part are quite “abstract in nature”.

In turn, the head of the Center for German Studies at the Institute of Europe, Vladislav Belov, believes that the military-technical potential of the Bundeswehr allows him to participate in new international operations.

“In the German media, the military is criticized for the lack of personnel and equipment. Nevertheless, no critic of the Bundeswehr does not deny that the country's army is still combat-ready and able to operate in the farthest corners of the planet, ”the expert said in an interview with RT.

In his opinion, the statement by Kramp-Karrenbauer is in line with the foreign policy line that the FRG adheres to.

“Since 2014, people in Berlin have been saying that not only the United States, but also the European Union, and Germany in the first place, should take on a greater than before share of responsibility for solving various global problems,” Belov notes.

At the same time, he emphasized that the issue of using the Bundeswehr outside the country is not at all technical, but political.

“Whether or not the Armed Forces of Germany will be involved in new foreign missions does not depend on Kramp-Karrenbauer, but on the decision of the Bundestag. It’s not at all a fact that the deputies will give their sanction to the army’s participation in foreign operations, ”the analyst said.

“There is no understanding of the prospects”

Vladislav Belov notes that, speaking of the possible strengthening of the military presence of Germany abroad, Kramp-Karrenbauer most likely pursues his own political goals. The expert recalled that the Minister of Defense simultaneously holds the post of chairman of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU): it is she who is considered a possible successor to Angela Merkel. The Chancellor previously stated that in 2021, after the expiration of her term of office, she would not run for head of government. In late November, Kramp-Karrenbauer presided for the first time at the CDU party congress in Leipzig.

• Easter march against the war in Berlin
• Reuters
• © Thomas Peter

“In favor of strengthening the role of the Bundeswehr, she thereby positions herself as an active minister, able to take the initiative and, therefore, suitable for the first roles of German politics,” Belov explained.

At the same time, according to Alexander Tevdoi-Burmuli, the statement of Kramp-Karrenbauer, whatever it was motivated, testifies to the changes that are taking place in the defense sphere of the EU countries.

“The US is cutting back on its commitments to Europe. Many, including French President Emmanuel Macron, talk about the withering of NATO. The EU is undergoing a period of transformation. Great Britain, militarily the most powerful EU country, emerges from a united Europe. Germany along with France wants to maintain its role as the political and military leader of the EU, ”says Tevdoi-Burmuli.

Nevertheless, he believes that the German establishment does not have a clear vision of the foreign policy line.

“There is no understanding of long-term prospects. In this regard, the statement of Kramp-Karrenbauer can also be considered as a certain sensing of public opinion. Will the Germans, who are traditionally disposed, if not pacifist, then very wary of any militaristic tendencies, approve of the idea of ​​strengthening the Bundeswehr? How will politicians react? These are all open-ended questions, ”says Tevda-Burmuli.

Experts call the issue of increasing defense spending a kind of “litmus test” by which one can judge Germany’s readiness for more active foreign activities.

“Germany plans to increase military spending. The authorities have committed themselves to bring them up to 1.5% of GDP. This is lower than the two percent level set for NATO countries, but nevertheless, taking into account the impressive indicators of German GDP, the amount is serious, ”Belov says.

At the same time, Alexander However, Tevdoi-Burmuli admits that Berlin may well abandon plans to increase defense spending.

“Part of the German establishment does indeed advocate spending more on the army and the military-industrial complex. But not the fact that military spending will indeed be increased. In the Bundestag there are both supporters of the activation of the foreign policy line, and those who support a milder course. It is too early to say which of them will be more influential, ”the expert summed up.