What is the secret of the rise of new powers and the disappearance of other Tunisian legislation?

Khamis Ben Brik-Tunisia

Observers believe that there are several reasons for the rise of new contradictory forces in the legislative elections, such as the "Heart of Tunisia" party, "the Democratic Current" and the "Dignity Coalition" in exchange for the disappearance of other forces such as "Nidaa Tounes" and the radical left.

In an initial count, Ennahdha came in first place (57 out of 217 parliamentary seats), followed by the heart of Tunisia (41), the Democratic Current (21), the Karama Coalition (20), the Free Constitution Party (18), and the The People (16).

The heart of Tunisia is a modern party founded four months ago by presidential candidate Nabil Karoui, who was jailed for money laundering and tax evasion. Karoui owns Nessma TV and a charity named after his deceased son Khalil.

Cloned party
On his rise, political analyst Abdessalam Zubeidi told Al Jazeera Net that the heart of Tunisia is a new reproduction of the Nidaa Tounes movement, founded in 2012 by the late President Béji Kaid Essebsi, won the 2014 elections and then formed a government coalition with Ennahda.

Zubaidi explains that Karoui was one of the founders of Nidaa Tounes at the time, adding that opinion polls showed that 45% of Nidaa Tounes' supporters voted for Nabil Karoui during the first round of the presidential elections held less than a month ago.

The heart of Tunisia, which has been established by opinion-polling organizations at the forefront of voting intentions for weeks, succeeded in reaching the next parliament with a balanced parliamentary bloc thanks to the networking of the communication and media dimension with the charitable dimension of the party, according to Zubaidi.

Zubaidi explains the rise of political forces and currents such as the Democratic Movement and the People 's Movement, each of which had three deputies in the previous parliament with their good performance in the opposition and their desperation in fighting corruption rampant within the system of government and state institutions.

Rising forces
While the democratic movement benefited from its political commitment to fight the corruption system, the People's Movement succeeded thanks to its similar performance and radiation in the southeast of Tunisia and the penetration of its leaders belonging to the Arab nationalist trend in several educational unions and others.

The rise of the Dignity Coalition, led by attorney Saif al-Din al-Makhlouf and the conservative Mercy Party, is explained by Zubaidi by absorbing part of the reservoir of the Islamic Renaissance Movement, which fell from 87 in 2011 to 69 in 2014 and to about 57 now.

"Historically, supporters of the Dignity Coalition voted for Ennahda, which lost part of its reservoir because of its alliance with Nidaa Tounes, which some believe is part of the old regime, and also because of its declaration of separation of advocacy from politics," he says.

He attributed the rise of the Free Constitutional Party, a descendant of the regime of the late President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, to the speech of its leader, Abeer Moussa, who is hostile to the Islamists, the revolution and the constitution, which attracted voices protesting the revolution on the pretext of deteriorating conditions.

But Zubaidi pointed out that her rise to first place was only one constituency of 33 constituencies, the governorate of Monastir, one of the strongholds of the supporters of the regime of the Bourguiba in the country, stressing that her first rise in parliament after the 2011 revolution "was thanks to the largest residue of votes."

Political extinction
Zubaidi explains the disappearance of the Nidaa Tounes movement, which won a single seat in return for winning first place in the last elections with 86 seats by splitting small parties because of internal conflicts, and an attempt to inherit the son of the late President Beji Kaid Essebsi leadership of the party.

His biggest loser was the radical left, the so-called Popular Front, which split into two feuding leadership camps, but won only a seat from 66 electoral lists. "The left is in a structural crisis and has not developed its rhetoric," he said.

This position is shared by political analyst Mohamed Bououd, who tells Al Jazeera Net that "the left has prepared for itself this resounding fall because of the lack of development of his classic speech, which no longer finds resonance in societies amid the changes taking place during the Arab Spring."

The reasons for the decline in the ranks of the centrist parties such as Nidaa Tounes and Afaq and the extinction of other partisan forces due to a structural crisis that are gnawing those parties, which "were not built on the basis of sound as they were political shops formulated hastily to share interests."

He does not rule out the possibility that this scenario will be repeated with new emerging political parties, such as the "Heart of Tunisia" party, which he said "carries with it the seeds of dispersion and annihilation as it was not founded on solid ground, but hastily formulated to run for elections."

Rise of the right
On the other hand, he attributed the promises of the rise of right-wing forces that some believe on the forces of the revolution, such as the Coalition of Dignity, which raises the slogan of nationalizing natural resources and fighting corruption, to the need of Tunisians for the slogans raised during the revolution that have not yet been realized.

But he believes that the next parliament, despite changing the addresses of the masses will maintain the same content and performance and will face major challenges in front of the suffocating situation in the country, expected to also see the formation of the next government major difficulties due to the fragmentation of parliamentary blocs.

"Tunisia will experience successive crises in the coming period as a result of mistrust among the rising parties of the new parliament, in addition to the lack of programs for the ruling parties and the lack of coherence and harmony between the parliament, the prime minister and the presidency," he said.

With Ennahda winning the legislative elections to form a broad and broad coalition government that includes several blocs and parties to reach at least 109 votes to give confidence to the government, promises that this alliance is fragile and vulnerable to challenges.