From May 23 to May 26, elections to the European Parliament will be held in the EU countries. From each member of the European Union, deputies of national parties will be elected to the general legislative body, as a rule, united in pan-European coalitions - European parties.
Each EU state has a certain number of mandates: from six (from such small countries as Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Estonia) to 96 deputy chairs (from Germany). Seats will be distributed in proportion to the votes received by each national party. A total of 751 deputies sit in the European Parliament. When the UK leaves the EU, their number will drop to 705. Every five years, the entire composition of the EU legislature is re-elected.
Traditionally, European countries themselves choose in which particular of the four days allotted for the elections, they will vote. For example, in the Netherlands and the UK will vote on Thursday. On Friday - citizens of Ireland. On Saturday - Latvia, Malta and Slovakia. Czechs will vote for two days - May 24 and 25. Residents of other EU countries will vote in the European elections on Sunday.
Parliament and Commission
From May 27, the deputies elected to the EU have the right to begin negotiations on the formation of factions in the European Parliament. To form a faction, you need 25 deputies representing at least seven EU countries (1/4 of the total number of member states).
The work of the new European Parliament will begin on July 2. During the first session in Strasbourg, the President of the European Parliament, 14 vice-chairmen will be elected, the number of standing committees and their composition will be determined.
In addition to participating in lawmaking and discussing the most important issues for the EU at committee meetings and during plenary sessions, EP deputies play an important role in approving the new European Commission.
That is what they have to do in July, when the heads of state and government of the EU will propose a candidate for the post of President of the European Commission. But in their choice they should focus on the distribution of votes in the European Parliament. This body by absolute majority of votes (50% plus 1 vote) must approve the successor to Jean-Claude Juncker.
If parliamentarians do not like the choice of European leaders, the latter will have to find a new candidate within a month. Also, the European Parliament must approve the entire composition of the European Commission, without which it will not be able to begin to fulfill its duties in November 2019.
“These elections can be called momentous. They will directly affect the distribution of powers, ”said Pavel Feldman, deputy director of the Institute of Strategic Studies and Forecasts of RUDN, in an interview with RT. - The winning party or coalition will form the composition of the European executive authorities. The European Parliament also makes decisions about the EU budget. ”
Forecasts and polls
On April 18, the results of a study commissioned by the European Parliament by the sociological service Kantar Public were published. Experts combined survey data in 28 EU countries to demonstrate the big picture before the election. According to the forecasts of sociologists, the new composition of the EP will be seriously different from what the Europeans are used to. The representation of the two largest European party blocs that once dominated in it: the center-right (EPP) and the center-left-wing from the all-European Socialists and Democrats (S & D) faction will be significantly reduced.
- Campaigning before elections to the European Parliament in the Netherlands
- AFP
- © Robin Utrecht / ANP
The EPP may lose 73 seats, eventually the number of deputies will decrease from 217 to 180, the number of “Socialists and Democrats” will decrease by 37 people. 10 mandates may be moderate for Euroskeptics from the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) bloc. But their more radical colleagues from the Freedom and Direct Democracy Europe (EFDD) faction (plus 4 mandates) and especially the Europe of Nations and Freedoms (ENF) (by 25 seats) will increase their representation. Liberals from the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) - by 8 people, and the European United Left / Left-Greens of the North (GUE / NGL) - by 5 mandates are preparing to expand their factions.
In general, center-right and center-left, according to sociological forecasts, will remain the two largest political forces in parliament. However, they will no longer control more than 50% of the mandates as before, and therefore will not be able to approve the leadership and composition of the European Commission without the support of other parties or independent deputies.
It is worth noting that all these predictions are based on the assumption that all national parties that are part of the existing pan-European factions will continue their membership in them after the elections. But theoretically, after the elections, each MEP will be able to choose any faction to taste or try to create a new one with like-minded people.
Also unclear is the fate of the Hungarian Civil Union (FIDESZ) membership in the EPP party of Prime Minister Viktor Orban. In March 2019, the European People’s Party, due to disagreement with Orban’s domestic policy, suspended the membership of the Hungarian political structure in its ranks.
In two large European countries - France and Italy - the largest number of votes is likely to be received by political forces that are not part of the largest factions of the European Parliament. The leaders of the sympathies of the French voters are the coalition of Emmanuel Macron's “Forward, Republic!” Party, which was not previously represented in the pan-European bodies, and a member of the ALDE Democratic Movement. 23% of French are ready to vote for them, which corresponds to 22 mandates. Euroskeptics from the “National Association” Marine Le Pen come on the heels of Macron - sociologists are predicting 20 deputy seats for them (21.2% of the vote).
In Italy, both of the largest political forces that will be represented in the European Parliament are Eurosceptic. These are parliamentarians from the ruling coalition “League”, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini (31.4% of support and 26 mandates in the future composition of the European Parliament) and the Movement of the Five Stars of other Deputy Prime Minister Luigi di Mayo (21.5% and 18 mandates).
Indicative of the situation in the UK. Despite the fact that the Brexit process was supposed to begin as early as March, he stalled due to disagreements between members of the British Parliament and Theresa May's cabinet. Therefore, the British are forced to take part in European elections, despite the fact that then they will have to leave the EU.
In the meantime, according to a recent poll by YouGov, commissioned by The Times, the undisputed leader of British sympathy for the European elections is the head of the Brexit Party, Nigel Faraj. 35% of respondents are ready to vote for him.
Russian question
In the context of the European elections, Russia is discussed very often. So, on May 18, speaking at a large-scale gathering of euro-skeptics in Italy, which was attended by leaders of 11 parties from EU countries, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini called for the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions. According to the politician, they only harm the EU countries, and have no effect on Russian policy.
On the other hand, the two leading candidates for the post of the next chairman of the European Commission - the representative of the European People’s Party, German Manfred Weber and his opponent from the Socialists and Democrats camp, the Dutchman Frans Timmermans, have no particular sympathy for Moscow.
- Manfred Weber
- Reuters
Weber is opposed to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. And Timmermans during the debate between the candidates for the post of head of the executive body of the EU said that Russia and China are trying to split the European Union.
On May 13, according to Deutsche Welle, the European Commissioner for Justice, Vera Yurova, warned about the danger of interference in the European elections from a number of countries, including Russia. In turn, a spokesman for the German government, Steffen Seibert, said the same day in Berlin that the German authorities had increased their vigilance before the European elections and were closely monitoring the activity on the Internet from Russia.
Leading media, and not only European ones, also warn about the “threat” of Russian influence on the upcoming elections. So, The New York Times, referring to some "researchers", writes that the servers that the US Democratic Party allegedly attacked on the Internet in 2016 are back in business. Now they are allegedly hosted by Eurosceptics sites. Based on this, the journalists of the publication concluded that the Kremlin was behind this.
About Russian trolls and the activity of Russian media, including RT, warned in France24 and Deutsche Welle in their investigation with the frightening name "Divide and rule: Russia and the elections in the European Union." And the British The Daily Mirror, as befits a “yellow” edition, scares readers with “Russian spies” who are allegedly trying to influence the choice of Europeans.
In addition, mainstream political parties actively accuse their opponents of ties with Russia. For example, the ruling Netherlands People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) on the eve of the elections published a video on Twitter calling for “not to give the Netherlands to Putin.”
Nog 7 dagen tot de europese verkiezingen. Laat politici met een Kremlincrush Nederland niet uitleveren aan Poetin. #slechtverhaal 👉 #goedverhaal # 02 pic.twitter.com/wKUfITClgR
- VVD (@VVD) May 16, 2019In Austria, on the eve of the European elections, the ruling coalition collapsed because of the publication of compromising evidence about the alleged ties of euro-skeptics from the Austrian Freedom Party to a Russian woman (which actually turned out to be a Latvian citizen), after which the ministers in the party declared their resignation.
“I am more than sure that this was a special provocation of Western intelligence services against the Euro-skeptics party, so that they could be accused of cooperating with Moscow before the elections,” said Oleg Bondarenko, director of the Foundation for Progressive Politics, in a conversation with RT.
Not paid attention to the Russian theme and French President Emmanuel Macron. True, in his statement, not only Russia, but also the United States and China became an “existential threat to the European Union”. On May 21, in an interview with regional French publications, Macron called on Europe to take action against the “obsessive” influence of Russia, China and the United States, stating that “the European Union cannot afford the luxury of inaction.”
“Either we decide to split and become a platform where the Chinese, Russians and Americans can influence and play their game, or we decide to regain control and be sovereign,” Macron told reporters.
According to Bondarenko, the constant presence of the theme of the threat of Russian intervention “in the top of the information agenda is due to the fact that, according to all expectations, the European skeptics will achieve a serious result in the elections.”
“The current European bureaucracy and mainstream parties do not want to say goodbye to the authorities, and therefore they are trying to shift responsibility for their problems to Russia,” the expert explained.
Continuing EU development
“After these elections, Euroskeptics can get very serious positions, and their likely ideological leader will be Matteo Salvini,” says Pavel Feldman.
- Matteo Salvini
- Reuters
- © Alessandro Garofalo
Experts point out that although mainstream parties are unlikely to give up their positions in the power structures of the European Parliament and the European Commission to opponents of European integration, they will be able to exert a more active influence on decision-making by voting in parliament. Including on the issue of lifting sanctions against Russia, although not all European skeptic parties support this proposal (against the Poles and the Balts).
However, it is impossible to overestimate the upcoming changes in the composition of the European Parliament, says Dmitry Levy, assistant professor of European Studies.
“The EU is shifting towards more populist parties,” the expert said in an interview with RT. “However, the European Parliament does not have a legislative initiative within the EU, and the European Commission remains the main engine of European integration and development.”
Therefore, despite the growing popularity of euro skeptics and the presence of British deputies, who are more concerned about how to leave the EU than develop integration, the European Parliament as a whole will not be able to slow down the development of the EU.
“Unless in some aspects, he will review the speed of integration or the financing of individual initiatives in the framework of budget coordination,” Levy said.