Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen last Sunday in Marseille for the National Rally, Valérie Hayer and Gabriel Attal on March 9 in Lille for Renaissance: three months before the European elections (from June 6 to 9) and after an Agricultural Show which has seen many candidates parade, the French campaign is well and truly launched.
In a context of progression of the far right throughout Europe, this election could give rise to profound changes in the European Parliament, whose political balance greatly determines the policies pursued by Brussels.
In total, 720 MEPs from the 27 member countries will be elected by European citizens, including 96 for Germany, 81 for France and 76 for Italy.
What are the stakes of these elections?
France 24 takes stock.
Towards a strong push from the far right and Eurosceptic parties
France, Austria, Poland… The far right is expected to win in nine member states of the European Union and in second or third position in nine others, according to polls.
A surge which could lead to a record number of Eurosceptic elected officials in Strasbourg: while there are currently 127 MEPs – 68 within the group of European Conservatives and Reformists (CRE) and 59 within the Identity and Democracy (ID) group. –, there could be more than 180 at the end of the European elections, according to the study by the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) entitled “Turn to the right: forecasts of the Parliament elections European Union of 2024.
A breakthrough which will also have consequences in the balance of power between the CRE and ID groups.
The first is notably made up of the Polish Law and Justice party (PiS) and the Italian Fratelli d'Italia party of Giorgia Meloni, while the second brings together the National Rally of the Frenchman Jordan Bardella, the League of the Italian Matteo Salvini and the AfD of the German Maximilian Krach.
Currently outnumbered, the ID group should overtake that of the CRE on the evening of June 9, according to ECFR projections.
Unless the elected representatives of Viktor Orban's Fidesz, in Hungary, currently not registered in the European Parliament after their resounding departure in 2021 from the European People's Party (EPP), choose to join the CRE.
In any case, it is the strong push from the far right and Eurosceptic parties which should mark these European elections.
See also Rise of the far right in Europe: the EU soon to be blocked?
What coalition will emerge in the European Parliament?
Even if most texts are voted on on a case-by-case basis with evolving alliances, the European Parliament is historically led by a more or less centrist coalition formed by the European People's Party (EPP, right) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D, left), to which the Renew Europe group (RE, center-right) has been added since 2019. Between them, these political groups represent 60% of the seats in the current legislature.
But while they are expected to lose deputies in the next election and the far-right groups, ID and CRE, are expected to gain some, the balance of the European Parliament could shift significantly to the right.
An alliance between PPE, ID and CRE could in fact approach the absolute majority – set at 361 MEPs in the 2024-2029 legislature – after the June election, giving a unique face to the Strasbourg Parliament.
Eurosceptics are well aware of this, hence the hand extended by Matteo Salvini to the EPP at the beginning of December, during a meeting of European far-right parties in Florence.
From this perspective, the decision of the elected representatives of the Hungarian Fidesz to join or not the European Conservatives and Reformists will be decisive, as will the attitude of the members of the EPP.
As a result, the European political agenda on immigration should, whatever happens, be considerably toughened.
At the same time, it could be more difficult for the European Parliament to pass sanctions against member states failing to respect the rule of law and civil liberties.
It is also this question which marked the break, in 2021, between the EPP and Fidesz.
The ecological transition, stop or still?
From these uncertainties about the coalition that will lead the European Parliament arises the successful continuation, or otherwise, of the European “Green Deal”.
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, launched an ecological transition aimed at carbon neutrality of the European Union in 2050. But measures such as banning the sale of new thermal cars in 2035 or increasing renewable energy targets were voted on thanks to the support of environmentalist MEPs from the Greens/European Free Alliance group and the Left group.
See also Anger of farmers: what future for the European agricultural model?
However, some elected officials from the EPP and RE believe that Brussels has gone too fast and too far.
A feeling that is even more present since the anger of European farmers broke out and the environmental constraints of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) have been singled out.
Result: while the EU already shows itself willing to relax the environmental obligations of the CAP in particular, a right-wing and far-right coalition could further slow down the implementation of the European Green Deal, or even reverse numerous provisions.
Ukraine, European defense, relations with Russia: what foreign policy?
The future face of the European Parliament will also have consequences on the conflict in Ukraine, the EU's relations with Russia, the future of European defense and even the possible future enlargement of the Union.
Some candidates - like Raphaël Glucksmann (S&D group), in France, who calls for a "war economy" - are also placing this issue at the center of their campaign speech.
The European Union will indeed have to choose in the coming months between continuing or reducing financial aid to kyiv.
Beyond this support and while Ursula von der Leyen recently proposed the creation of a European Defense Commissioner and Donald Trump has left the threat of reversing American protection of Europe, the question of European defense will be a major challenge.
See also Ukraine: a “European war”?
The European Union seeks to strengthen its defense
The European Union will also have to resolve the question of the accession of Ukraine and Moldova, on the one hand, and its relations with Russia on the other.
The possible massive arrival of pro-Russian MEPs - or at least disinclined to sanction Moscow - could reshuffle the voting cards on the European Parliament's foreign policy.
On the other hand, the European elections are not expected to have much impact on EU policy regarding the conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas, especially since the European Parliament already adopted a resolution on January 18 calling for to a permanent ceasefire under conditions.
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