On March 29, the European Parliament published an official forecast regarding the future composition of the EU legislature after the elections of May 23-26, 2019. As stated in the note to the document, the study was prepared by compiling data from various independent surveys conducted in all EU countries.

According to the results of the study, the number of deputies from the two largest all-European factions: the center-right of the European People’s Party (EPP) and the center-left of the Socialists and Democrats (S & D) will be significantly reduced in the new composition of the EP.

Since 1979, these two groups occupied the majority of seats in the European Parliament and determined the policy of this body. However, now they will have to seek the support of other parties.

As the Politico publication notes, “the study stresses that after the elections, the two largest factions of the European Parliament will no longer be able to form a majority together. To create a coalition of the majority in the parliament of the renewed composition, they will have to enlist the support of at least one more party. ”

Pre-election deals

According to the forecast of the European Parliament, among 705 deputies of the legislative body (their number will decrease compared to the current convocation - 751 people), the “European People's Party” can count on 188 seats (26.7% against the current 29%), and “Socialists and Democrats” - 142 mandates (20.1% against the current 24.8%).

After Brexit, such factions as European Conservatives and Reformists (now based on the British Conservatives and the Polish ruling party Law and Justice) will reduce their representation from 9.9% to 7.5%, and also Europe for Freedom and direct democracy "(its" motor "is the British United Kingdom Independence Party) - from 5.5% to 4.3%

The European United Left / Left Greens of the North (GUE / NGL) bloc will retain in the future the composition of the European Parliament 7% of the deputy seats.

According to the survey, only three of the new factions represented in the current EP can strengthen their positions. In particular, we are talking about the liberal group “Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe” (ALDE), which can get 10.2% of the seats. In the future composition of the parliament, it may join the bloc with a similar ideology party of Emmanuel Macron “Forward, Republic,” notes Politico. Together they will have about 13.5%.

Their opponents - Euroskeptics from the "European Nations and Freedoms" (ENF) - can increase their presence in the European Parliament to 8.7% of all mandates (now - 5%).

  • European Parliament Building
  • Reuters
  • © Vincent Kessler

At the same time, the Italian party Liga (formerly the League of the North), which is part of the “Europe of Nations and Freedoms”, can become the second largest national party in the EP, having received 26 seats. For more - 33 mandates - only the German bloc of center-right political parties claims, including the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU). It is precisely due to the growing support of the League that the positions of the “Europe of nations and freedoms” will be strengthened.

Another party claiming the role of a kind of locomotive that can pull out its European faction is the German Greens. Now, according to polls in Germany, they claim to be the second most popular party after the CDU / CSU. Six new deputy seats from Germany will help the Green - European Free Alliance (Greens-EFA) block not only to stay afloat, but also to increase its representation in the European Parliament by 0.3%.

According to the decision adopted by the EP on March 25, the current forecast of the election results is the penultimate one. In general, its results are consistent with data from similar studies published on February 18 and March 1.

Fight for leadership

According to Euronews, the fact that the “European People's Party” will remain the largest in the European Parliament strengthens the position of the current leader of the faction and CDU deputy Manfred Weber in the struggle for the role of successor Jean-Claude Juncker as head of the European Commission. The new composition of this body must be approved after the re-election of the EP. Usually, the candidate for the highest number of votes in the elections of the pan-European party becomes the head of the European Commission: the leaders of the EU countries vote for him first, while the final decision rests with the parliamentarians.

  • Candidate for the post of European Commission Manfred Weber
  • Reuters
  • © Andreas Gebert

Weber has already received support from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, but at odds with her on several issues. For example, he considers it necessary to stop the construction of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline.

However, Weber does not like the "left". In particular, on March 21, at a meeting of European socialist parties, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called him "an ultra-right Bavarian politician" and called on "all progressive forces" to unite against the German candidate.

On the part of the “Socialists and Democrats”, the Netherlands’s politician, Frans Timmermans, who holds the post of Juncker’s deputy, claims to be the head of the European Commission. Other candidates include liberal advocate, Margaret Vestager, European Commissioner for Competition, her faction ally, Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt, and Czech Zahradil, head of the Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists.

As Alexander Tevda-Burmuli, associate professor of integration processes at MGIMO, noted in an interview with RT, it’s premature to say who will be the new head of the European Commission. In his opinion, the construction of the Nord Stream - 2 will not be stopped even if Weber becomes the head of the European Commission. German gas is needed by Germany to support this project. According to the expert, whatever the results of the elections in the European Parliament, the status quo will remain in relations between the EU and Russia.

“The European Parliament will not change anything. There can be no improvement in relations between the European Union and Moscow, and deterioration can occur, but situationally, ”Tevda-Burmuli said.

In turn, Vladimir Schweitzer, head of the department of social and political studies at the Institute of Europe, RAS, said in an interview with RT that the two largest factions are likely to seek the support of the liberals in order to carry out decisions through parliament. But this will not save the European legislature from problems.

“All future votes and resolutions will be held with difficulty. The obvious trend is parties of a different kind, such as nationalists and populists, but it is not known how they can organize themselves, since there is no friendship between them, ”the expert said.

Eurosceptic Factor

According to Tevdoya-Burmuli, even an increase in the number of radical European skeptics from the “Europe of Nations and Freedoms” faction will not change the policy of the European Parliament. First, they will not be the dominant group in the EU. Secondly, the “European People’s Party” and “Socialists and Democrats” will most likely be forced to seek support from their worst opponents from the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats, as well as the Macron Party on important issues. Although theoretically, together with moderate European skeptics from European Conservatives and Reformists and Europe for Freedom and Democracy, opponents of strengthening the role of Brussels can claim 20.5% of the seats in the European Parliament, these groups are not united.

“There used to be quite a few European skeptics, they also dispersed among different factions, because they could not act in concert. Now it will be the same, ”the political scientist believes.

Meanwhile, the expert notes that “right-wing populist and Euro-skeptical moods are strengthening in Europe”. If you look at the forecast of voting in the European Parliament for individual countries, you can see that many of them are leading such forces.

In Italy in the elections with a huge margin from the competition, the League is likely to win. In France, the figures for the support of the “National Association” Marine Le Pen are almost equal to the rating of the Macron party. In Poland, “Law and Justice” is fighting for first place with a coalition of opposition parties, which has entered the clinch with Brussels on a multitude of issues.

  • Marine Le Pen
  • Reuters
  • © Vincent Kessler

Moreover, in some countries populist or Euroskeptic forces, which are formally members of the “pro-European”, lead. In Hungary, this is “FIDES - Hungarian Civil Union” by Prime Minister Viktor Orban. His membership was temporarily suspended in the “European People's Party” for spreading misinformation about EU institutions. In the Czech Republic - the populist “Action of Disgruntled Citizens” (ANO), part of ALDE.

Tevdoi-Burmuli argues that populists and euro skeptics are expanding their presence, but even in an expanded composition they will not be able to consolidate their influence on EU policy.

British uncertainty

According to experts, the uncertainty about the beginning of the UK exit from the EU complicates the holding of elections to the European Parliament. If London is unable to start the Brexit procedure before the vote, then the British will be forced to take part in it as subjects of a country still part of the European Union.

Tevdoi-Burmuli notes that so far no one can really answer this question. If the UK does not leave the EU, then a conflict will arise. London has the right to send deputies to parliament, but everyone understands that they will not stay there for a long time and will have to leave. It is not clear who left these places.

  • Protesters for the UK exit from the EU demonstrators
  • Reuters
  • © Toby Melville

“Most likely, it will be agreed: either London will not participate in the elections to the European Parliament, or a tough agreement will be reached on how the British quota will be divided after they leave the European Parliament,” the expert emphasized.

In turn, Schweitzer believes that the UK will not participate in elections - no one in the country has prepared for such a prospect. At the same time, there was not much time left for preparation, nomination of election programs and lists of candidates.

In general, according to experts, the elections to the European Parliament are interesting mainly as an indicator of European political sentiment.

“Voting has a sociological significance. First of all, the elections will show which political parties are strengthening or weakening in Europe. The real functions of the European Parliament parties are not enough, ”Schweitzer summed up.