Amidst unprecedented nominations, populists are lurking in the European Parliament

There is a possibility that half of the seats will go to representatives from outside the “grand coalition” made up of centrist (French) groups.

The European Parliament has become, more than ever, a major target for right-wing movements across the European Union, with strong possibilities of winning a majority of seats in this year's elections, for the first time in the history of the Parliament.

A report issued by the think tank of the European Council on Foreign Relations showed high rates of the rise of the right at the expense of the center left and the Green parties, with the possibility of half the seats being transferred to representatives from outside the “grand coalition” composed of the three centrist groups.

The report - edited by Susie Dennison, Director of Strategy and Transformation, and Kevin Cunningham, lecturer in politics and pollster - expects that populists will lead the poll results in at least 9 countries, namely Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Slovakia, with the possibility of them advancing in other countries of the year. Among them are Germany, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Finland, Estonia and Latvia.

It is likely - according to the European Thinking Team - that the upcoming results will create a large populist coalition that includes members of parliament from the far right, Christian Democrats and conservatives, to replace the “grand coalition” controlling the European Parliament.

The team fears that the rise of the right will have a direct impact on European Union policies, especially with regard to support for Ukraine in its war with Russia or environmental issues, as the report suggests that the new majority will oppose the Union’s plans to combat climate change.

The report believes that the results of the elections may affect the discussions and policies of the national governments of member states later, and this will also have an impact on the Foreign Commission and the Council in determining foreign policy.

Right-wing echoes in Germany and France

In principle, the think tank's report resonates with the latest opinion poll in Germany conducted by the "INZA" opinion research institute, commissioned by the "T-Online" website, that the right-wing populist "AfD" party can double the share it won in the 2019 elections. If elections are held in February.

The results revealed that the Alternative Party will receive 22% of the votes in the European Parliament elections, ranking second after the Christian Alliance (the largest German opposition party), compared to 11% that the right-wing populist party obtained in the 2019 elections.

The matter is not much different in France, with support for the government not exceeding 30%, the European parliamentary elections will be an opportunity for voters to express their rejection of government policies, according to the report, which expects things to turn out in favor of the right-wing National Front party led by Marie Le Pen, in preparation for a broader sweep in the elections. Presidential year 2027.

Hussein Al-Waeli, a journalist who specializes in European affairs and is accredited to the European Union, told Al Jazeera Net, “Regardless of the reports issued, there is an impression that the populist right is coming strongly due to the crises that are afflicting the Union’s institutions. It is clear that it has grown stronger through employees in the various Union institutions, and this represents fertile ground.” .

Al-Waeli continued, "Public opinion is waiting for a new approach proposed by the extreme right, especially in the field of immigration. Despite the signing of the new Charter on Migration and Asylum, this is not enough due to the economic crisis."

In turn, Zaid Al-Azm, a member of the French Ennahda party led by President Emmanuel Macron, does not rule out that Le Pen's party will lead the European Parliament elections in France.

Al-Azm explained in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net, "It is difficult for him to obtain a wide majority, but obtaining 50% of the votes is possible. At a party meeting, Secretary-General Stephane Ségournet said that it is likely that the National Front party will lead the voting results in France. The party is basing its campaign on the immigration issue." sensitive and intimidating the French about the “great replacement,” a campaign in which we believe Moscow has a role.”

In the Ennahda party member's estimation, a victory for Le Pen's party would raise the morale of the right to attract voters before the next presidential elections. He added, "Let us not forget that Le Pen came second in the last two elections. The responsibility of the center and left parties is to propagandize against the theses of the extreme right."

Research Methodology

The Think Tank report bases its expectations on early opinion polls for the European Parliament elections that point to a more right-wing Parliament, and on actual indicators of the rise of the right in some member states, such as the victory of the Dutch Freedom Party in the November 2023 elections, and the influence of the right in general on European politics. In 2023, especially the immigration file.

The report also relied on the results of the latest opinion polls in each member state, and then applied a complex statistical model to the parties’ performance in previous years, the share of votes they won in the recent national parliamentary elections, whether the party was in the government or in the opposition, and the party’s position on the political map. This is the model that was used and developed in the 2009, 2014, and 2019 elections.

The statistical model predicts the results of the 2024 European Parliament elections, the number of seats each party is likely to win, according to the particular electoral system and the method of distributing seats in each member state, and how this may affect the composition of political groups in the European Parliament.

This statistic takes into account that the number of parliamentary seats in the 2024 elections will be around 720 seats, an increase of 15 seats over the previous number.

Losers and winners

The most prominent thing the report indicates is the continued decline of the two largest groups in Parliament, the European People's Party and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, after losing seats in the 2014 and 2019 elections. However, the “European People” can maintain its status as the largest party in the establishment and choose the next President of the Commission.

The loss of seats could also affect the centrist Renew Europe party and the Green Bloc/European Free Alliance, by 101 seats to 86 for the former, and from 71 seats to 61 for the latter.

But the biggest winners, according to the report, will be the far-right “Identity and Democracy” party bloc, which is expected to win an additional 40 seats, turning it into the third largest group in Parliament with about 100 seats.

If “Identity and Democracy” allies itself with the “Conservatives and Reformists” bloc, which is expected to win 18 seats in the 2024 elections, this bloc together will constitute a quarter of the members of Parliament, and will surpass for the first time the “European People’s” and “Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats” blocs.

The report indicates that even if the three major centrist groups, the “European People” bloc, the “Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats” bloc, and the “Renew Europe” bloc, allied, their combined seat percentage would not exceed 54% after the elections, compared to 60% before the elections.

This estimate takes into account that the voting percentage is not always consistent within the bloc, and this means that 54% is not enough to guarantee a majority when voting in Parliament.

With the expected loss of the left coalition by 33% of its seats, the right will be the biggest beneficiary of the change in balances after the elections, according to the experts’ report.

These changes could lead to the expansion of right-wing coalitions. If estimates indicate the loss of some seats for the center-right coalition (the European People, the Conservative Party, the Reformists, and the Renewal of Europe), then a right-wing populist coalition brings together the far-right “European People,” “Identity and Democracy,” and the “Conservatives and Reformists.” “It could capture about 50% of the seats in Parliament.

The statistical model also predicts the rise of the front critical of the entire "European Union" project, whether from the extreme right or the radical left. The size of this shift is estimated at 37% after the elections, compared to 30% before them.

The report does not ignore that the votes of the populist right will be higher than ever after the 2024 elections, for the first time since the first elections held in 1979.

Expected effects

The report suggests that the new parliament will provide all support to Kiev in the first period, but this trend will later clash with a number of European representatives, especially from the “Identity and Democracy” bloc and the independent representatives, due to their sympathy with Russia.

European support for Ukraine is also likely to decline, due to the position of national parties that will subsequently begin to react to the voting trends of voters expressed in the European Parliament elections.

On the other hand, the report does not rule out, in light of the expansion of the front skeptical of the European bloc project, represented by representatives of “Identity and Democracy,” “Conservatives and Reformists,” and parties from the European People’s Party, more calls from the majority to grant greater powers to member states in the economic and tax fields.

Countries such as Italy, Sweden, Hungary and Slovakia are lobbying against any plans to unify European regulations and against Brussels' powers to interfere in the national affairs of member states.

Hussein Al-Waeli says to Al-Jazeera Net, "The extreme right highlights the problem of European identity. Is it a unified identity? This reinforces doubts about the unity of the bloc. We may witness the exit of countries from the Union (Frexit) if, for example, Le Pen wins the French elections."

With regard to freedoms and internal affairs, the report warns of direct consequences of the rise of the far-right and populist right on immigration and asylum policies in the European Union. It is likely that a majority will emerge in the European Parliament that supports broader restrictions on asylum policy by legislating more discretionary power for member states and limiting any sharing of refugee allocations.

A winning majority could limit the Union's efforts to impose the rule of law in countries such as Hungary and Poland. It will be difficult to ensure a majority to pass sanctions against these countries, as was the case with the decision to withhold budget payments in the current parliament.

In his interview with Al Jazeera Net, French politician Zaid Al-Azm pointed out fears of pushing legislation that threatens the unity project in light of a right-wing majority in the European Parliament, affecting currency, customs, trade laws, and humanitarian issues. The most dangerous matter would be the call to review the Union’s share of NATO funding.

Al-Azm continues, "This corresponds to Trump's old intimidation campaign regarding Russia's influence in the event of a default on Atlantic funding. The call to reduce support for Ukraine reinforces fears of Moscow's next step. Russia may not stop with Ukraine."

The Green Charter is in the air

According to the report, the most expected repercussions will be related to policies to combat climate change and environmental issues.

In this regard, Al-Waeli says to Al-Jazeera Net, "The right offers a different and opposing vision, especially on environmental issues. The European Green Contract practically collapsed in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine and returned to operating nuclear plants and even those coal-fired plants."

He adds, "The position of the extreme right in the European Parliament means obstructing all European legislation related to the environment, including the decisions of the European Commission."

Traditionally, the center-left coalition used to win votes on environmental issues, but some of those votes were decided by a narrow margin. The rise of the right after the 2024 elections puts the “European Green Charter” to the test.

This rise would deal a blow to plans to unify European policies in this field and achieve the European goal of climate neutrality by 2050.

The report’s authors take the “Nature Restoration Law,” which Parliament painstakingly voted on and passed after heated sessions, as a clear example of what the situation could be like if this law were voted on after the June 2024 elections.

The right-wing front submitted a proposal to drop the law proposed by the Commission, and in the end Parliament approved it by a narrow margin (12 votes).

Taking into account the expectations of the European Thinking Group report, the law would have suffered a severe setback if the new parliament had voted on it after the 2024 elections, with a comfortable margin for the right-wing front of more than 70 votes.

Overall, the report's authors view its findings as a warning to European policymakers about future commitments in the new parliament. It also warns of the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the US administration, which means that the Union will be obligated to deal with an American administration that is less involved at the global level.

However, Al-Waeli believes that the right-wing movement cannot work in isolation from interests within NATO, citing the visit of right-wing Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to Washington.

As for the European level, Al-Waeli expects in his analysis that “if the extreme right in Parliament does not present policies that are in harmony with economic institutions, banks, and others, it will end up collapsing.”

Source: Al Jazeera