- Tweeter
republish
Venezuela now has two presidents: the incumbent head of state, Nicolas Maduro and Juan Guaido, the speaker of the National Assembly, an institution in the hands of the opposition, which proclaimed itself Thursday, acting president . He immediately received the recognition of many countries including the American continent: neighbors but also the recognition of the United States and Canada. Serge Olivier is a historian, a Venezuelan specialist in the American World laboratory at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (Ehess). He analyzes the profile of the new demonstrators and the margin of maneuver of Juan Guaido against the army.
Rfi: Serge Olivier, who is this people who supports Juan Guaido?
Serge Olivier: It's very heterogeneous. Unlike the demonstrations that usually take place to support the opposition in Venezuela, which were protests - especially in 2017 - centered on the east of Caracas, that is to say on the middle class neighborhoods, the classes well-off, since Wednesday there are also demonstrations in the working-class neighborhoods, the barrios of western Caracas. All over the country, in all cities, there are riots, sometimes with looting. There were scenes of riots in the streets, in very popular neighborhoods, historically Chavista barrios , La Vega, Propatria, Cota 905 ... Popular neighborhoods that usually did not follow what was happening in the wealthier neighborhoods of the east of the country.
There, is there a real change?
Yes, it is a first lesson from the point of view of riots and spontaneous demonstrations: there is a convergence between the popular districts of western Caracas and the more affluent neighborhoods of the east, it is something new.
Without the army behind him, can Juan Guaido hope for something? Can he hold after self-proclaimed head of state?
It's very difficult for him and it will be very, very complicated. There is already a crackdown going on. There are already 28 deaths in the country at present and already nearly 200 arrests.
It is mainly at present, the police forces, the police special forces, which intervene in the neighborhoods and the National Guard, but [to a much lesser extent]. In fact, if the big demonstrations - which is to be expected, continue today (Friday), the repression by the National Guard will be a key element. Because the big repressions of the big demonstrations, have not yet taken place.
The military high command supports the Maduro government. This is a surprise, since Maduro has named - a completely mind-boggling figure - 2,000 generals. The high command is tied to the regime, the military is part of the regime, the regime is, the regime is largely. For a third of the government, they are soldiers; the state governors are military. In short, the high command is military.
But the non-commissioned soldiers, the junior officers and the non-commissioned officers, are suffering the full-blown crisis, like the rest of the Venezuelans. If they have to suppress the demonstration systematically, it will be a test of loyalty for the troop. And it's still coming ...