Syrian launch of a Russian aircraft: Putin's balancing act

The images of two smiling presidents, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin, were only a few hours old when Russia received news that a Illyushin Il-20 military aircraft off the coast of Syria was missing.

The heads of state of Turkey and Russia had announced in Sochi that they wanted to build a buffer zone together in the last rebel stronghold of Idlib in Syria - which is to prevent an offensive in the north of the war country for the time being. It was a breakthrough after weeks of tough negotiations.

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Vladimir Putin (r.), With Recep Tayyip Erdogan

But this was hardly talked about on Tuesday morning. The state television was mainly concerned with the fate of the propeller aircraft Il-20, which was shot down, according to Moscow. All 15 soldiers died on board.

The loss of the reconnaissance plane shows how sensitive the three-year Syria operation has been for Russia. It has become a balancing act for President Vladimir Putin.

Because the machine, which collected data on Idlib, was hit by a missile of the Syrian air defense system S-200, that of the allied dictator Baschar al-Assad. This was announced by the Ministry of Defense in a statement which it published quite quickly, which is unusual for the authority.

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Propeller machine type IL-20

However, it is not Assad's military who blame the shooting, but the Israeli army, said Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Four Israeli F-16 fighters had begun bombing targets in Lakatia near the Russian Il-20 off the coast of Syria. Only a minute before Moscow had been informed, too little time for the approaching Il -20 still react, so the version of the Russian military. It accused Israel of using the propeller plane as cover against the Syrian air defense system, whose rocket eventually hit the Il-20.

While Igor Konashekov, spokesman for the Ministry of Defense, initially spoke of a "hostile provocation of Israel" and threatened with consequences, Putin later showed much more restrained and sought a settlement with Israel.

"Chain of tragic circumstances"

The Russian leader referred to "a chain of tragic circumstances" that led to the death of 15 people. In no case was the shooting comparable to that of a Russian fighter jet through Turkey in 2015, which led to a crisis in the relations of the countries. "Israel did not shoot our plane," Putin said.

On Tuesday he telephoned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who expressed his regret and announced that he would provide all information about the incident. Netanyahu has been seeking regular close contacts with Moscow for months, most recently visiting Putin on 11 July. Israel fears that the influence of Iran and the Hezbollah terrorist organization fighting on Assad's side is growing in Syria, and thus in the neighborhood. But that would not be tolerated, Netanyahu had stated several times. Israel has already bombed positions in Syria - Moscow approved that and did not comment on the attacks any further.

Old air defense system of the Syrians

According to an Israeli army spokesman, this time a target for the attacks was the Syrian army camp, where rocket parts were stored for Hezbollah. The Russian side was informed in advance about the bombardments. The Russian Il-20 had been hit by "extensive and inaccurate Syrian fire."

In fact, the Syrian S-200 Soviet-style air defense system is outdated, as Russian experts point out. "It is not a very smart missile system," says Yevgeny Buschinsky, an expert at the think tank PIR Center, which deals with international security issues. Unlike modern defensive missile systems, S-200 can not distinguish between its own, allied and enemy machines.

How it came to the fatal flaw off the coast of Syria, is now clearing up, announced Putin in his brief statement, which he gave during a press conference with the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. He did not say anything about Assad's army.

Putin's promise

His words were also to be understood as a message to the Russian population, which must now experience Syria after three years, as military personnel in Syria die again and again. More than 100 were already killed. At least that's the data that's publicly known. Reliable numbers do not exist, as the army regards them as state secrets. In addition, mercenaries are in use in Syria, last year alone 131 men of the known as Wagner group private army have died.

Putin promised to strengthen all security arrangements for Russian soldiers and military bases in Syria. "These will be steps that all will notice." Details did not mention the president however.