"Washington is interested in exacerbating the situation": what are the consequences of a political crisis in Venezuela

Behind the coup in Venezuela are US authorities, said Foreign Minister Jorge Arres.

“It seems that the coups in Latin America have always been promoted by the US government. Once the president of (Bolivia) Evo Morales himself said that the only country in the hemisphere where there was no coup was the United States, since there is no US embassy in Washington. In this case ... the government of President Trump was not behind the coup d'état, did not advance it: it was ahead, on the front line, it dictated the scenario to the Venezuelan right, as well as satellite governments that obey the instructions of the United States, "he said in an interview with the RIA News.

Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the United States of fomenting the political crisis in Venezuela.

“The fact that the United States and a number of other countries recognized the self-proclaimed president, says that they directly had a hand in the crisis in Venezuela,” said the head of Russian diplomacy on January 24 during a visit to Algeria.

On January 23, the representative of the local opposition, the chairman of the Venezuelan parliament, Juan Guaido, declared himself the acting president of Venezuela.

In fact, right away, Guayido was recognized by the American leader Donald Trump as such. In response, the country's legitimate president, Nicolas Maduro, announced an attempted coup inspired by the United States and severed diplomatic relations with Washington. In Washington, however, they did not recognize this step, since they announced that they no longer consider Maduro as the head of state.

The governments of Brazil, Peru, Chile, Argentina, Paraguay, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Costa Rica, Canada and a number of other countries have shared with the Americans. Russia, China, Turkey opposed interference in the affairs of Venezuela. Mexico and Uruguay called on the authorities and the opposition to dialogue.

According to a number of Venezuelan and world media, Guayido actions led to new protests in Venezuela, at least 16 people were killed.

Dual power

The reason for the new round of confrontation, both inside Venezuela and between Venezuela and the United States, was the entry of Nicolas Maduro into the office of President on January 10, 2019. On May 20 last year, he won the presidential election, but the local opposition and the United States declared them illegal. The main opposition coalition, the Round Table of Democratic Unity, which controls the Venezuelan parliament, the National Assembly, has expressed its popular will.

• President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro
• AFP
• © Luis ROBAYO

Immediately after Maduro’s inauguration, the US State Department announced that it considered its government illegitimate and expressed support for the not very well-known 36-year-old politician Juan Guaido, who had already made his claim to the presidency, elected on the eve.

The internal political situation in Venezuela is complicated by the fact that after the country held elections on October 6, 2017 for a new authority - the Constitutional Assembly, two legislative authorities began to operate in the country: the Constitutional and the National Assembly. If the latter opposes Maduro, the former supports the presidential course and calls for the defense of "the conquests of the Bolivarian revolution."

"Support from the outside"

“Quite unexpectedly, this person, Juan Guaido, appeared,” said Alexander Chichin, dean of the Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences (RANES) of RANEPA, in a conversation with RT.

• Juan Guaido
• Reuters
• © Carlos Garcia Rawlins

A politician who has declared himself president of Venezuela represents the Leopoldo Lopez Social Democratic Party Narodnaya Volya, created in 2009. In 2015, Lopez was sentenced by a Venezuelan court to 13 years in prison for inciting riots, arson and murder. He is currently under house arrest.

Alexander Chichin emphasizes that very little is still known about Juan Guaido. In particular, he graduated from the Faculty of Engineering at the Catholic University in Caracas and two magistracies. One of them is at the American University of George Washington.

“The fact of studying in Washington leads to certain thoughts,” Chichin notes. “The way he behaves and how he comes out says that he definitely has support from outside.”

A similar point of view is held by the deputy director of the Institute of Strategic Studies and Forecasts of RUDN University Nikita Danyuk.

“The US is now trying to use color revolution technology against Venezuela,” said Danyuk in an interview with RT. “The proclamation of a representative of the opposition by the President of Venezuela, an attempt to sway the situation, statements by Trump and Pompeo indicate that Washington is interested in further exacerbating the situation.

However, according to experts, the self-proclaimed president of Venezuela has no real levers of power. The army and representatives of other power structures, despite the fact that Guayido promised them, unlike other officials, an amnesty, did not support him. This person is not known to most of the country's citizens, and even earlier, according to experts, the absence of a leader with the support of more than 25% was a problem for the Venezuelan opposition, despite the fact that a significant part of the country's population really expects change.

“It is possible that he will end up just like Leopold Lopez — that is, he will be imprisoned or will do the opposition a disservice by raising the masses to protest, which will end in nothing,” Chichin believes.

At the same time, according to him, a lot now depends on the actions of Washington, who supported the Guaido.

“The protests in Venezuela are not as widespread as they are presented in the media,” about the same number of people are supported by Maduro. Therefore, it is now extremely important what actions will be taken by the forces behind Juan Guaiido, ”Chichin emphasizes.

"Geopolitical reorientation"

Mass protests in Venezuela, with some interruptions, have been going on since 2014. The main dissatisfaction of residents is provoked by economic problems: the fall in living standards, a shortage of goods, the depreciation of the national currency. Opposition parties in the country, actively participating in demonstrations, are in favor of a change of power and a rejection of the previous economic and political course adopted by Hugo Chavez.

In turn, the government of Nicolas Maduro, who headed the state after Chavez’s death in 2013, accuses oppositionists of working for Western countries, primarily the United States, and attempts to undermine the sovereignty of Venezuela. Caracas also places a partial blame for the economic crisis on Washington’s hostile actions.

In the United States, after the arrival of Donald Trump, the positions of republican “hawks”, aimed at the removal of the Maduro regime, strengthened. Economic sanctions were applied against the country's leadership and the state-owned oil company PDVSA. Restrictions on trade with Caracas and introduced the European Union. On January 8, the US Treasury Department once again expanded the sanctions against a number of Venezuelan individuals and legal entities.

In an interview with International Affairs magazine, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned the United States against military intervention in the affairs of Venezuela, saying that this would be a "catastrophic scenario."

Donald Trump and members of his administration have repeatedly spoken in favor of regime change in Venezuela. In August 2017, the American president declared that he did not rule out a "military solution" of the Venezuelan crisis. Later, Trump, in response to a question from journalists about the possibility of a US invasion of Venezuela, said that he "takes into account all the options."

Last September, during a visit to Colombia, Luis Almagro, secretary general of the Organization of American States (OAS), which unites the countries of the western hemisphere, also stated that he did not rule out a military solution to the Venezuelan issue.

In the past, the OAS already supported US military intervention in Latin American countries. So, in 1965, she sanctioned the invasion of US troops in the Dominican Republic and the removal of the legitimately elected president, Juan Bosch. Supported the OAS and the US invasion of Grenada in 1983.

“The United States always sees South American territory as its backyard,” explained Danyuk. “For the United States, it is extremely important that Venezuela, formerly a stronghold of politics independent of the United States, carry out a geopolitical reorientation.”

According to experts, the United States had previously openly expressed dissatisfaction with Venezuela’s cooperation with Russia and China. So, in November last year, Assistant to the President of the United States, John Bolton, stressed that by developing cooperation with Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, Moscow "is fishing in muddy water."

In the ring of detractors

According to experts, the geopolitical position of Venezuela after coming to power in Brazil, inclined to an alliance with the US President Zhair Bolshonar has deteriorated significantly. In early January, in an interview with local media, Bolsonar criticized Russia for military cooperation with Venezuela and announced the possibility of creating a US military base in Brazil.

• © Google.com/maps

Venezuela’s relations with Colombia, which traditionally serves as the US outpost in the region, also leave much to be desired. Last December, Nicolas Maduro accused Colombian President Ivan Duque of developing a plan to overthrow the legitimate leadership of Venezuela, along with Trump’s national security assistant, John Bolton.

Venezuelan-Guyanese relations are also complex. Venezuela claims a significant part of the territory of the former British colony, rich in minerals. The conflict escalated after 2015, when the authorities in Georgetown allowed the American company Exxon Mobil to develop hydrocarbons in a disputed area. Border regions of Guyana Venezuela are also covered by mass protests.

As Alexander Chichin notes, the most anticipated option for the United States now is the tightening of economic sanctions against Caracas - up to the oil embargo, which can seriously affect the Venezuelan economy. Now the United States is the main consumer of Venezuelan oil. The sale of "black gold" is the main source of foreign exchange earnings for Caracas, which are spent mainly on food purchases: Venezuela is 90% dependent on imports of goods from abroad. Unlike North Korea or Iran, a potential trade blockade for Venezuela can end very badly.

At the same time, experts do not exclude other scenarios.

“The main problem is what awaits American diplomats when the 72 hours that Maduro gave them to leave the embassy will expire,” the expert notes.

Earlier, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, refusing to sever diplomatic relations with Caracas, warned Venezuelan authorities of coercive actions against the American embassy and stressed that Washington would take "appropriate measures to bring to justice anyone who threatens the security of our mission and its personnel."

“Unpredictable actions by the United States may follow expulsion,” Chichin notes. “They may resort to intervention, but not direct, for example, through Colombia.”

"Bloody provocations"

According to the expert, it is Colombia, which has the longest border with Venezuela, can become a base for various kinds of sabotage. Chichin notes that in this country, where "death squads and drug cartel units are fighting the leftist partisans, there is enough human material".

• Colombian militants from the organization (Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia)
• AFP
• © FREDY AMARILES

In December last year, Colombian President Ivan Duque again allowed the Ministry of Defense in emergency cases to transfer weapons to civilians, loosening the restrictions on carrying weapons, introduced in 2006, after trying to disarm the right-wing gangs.

“I think the militants from Colombia have already penetrated into Venezuela. And they can organize bloody provocations with a large number of victims, which will lead to increased clashes, ”the political scientist believes.

According to Nikita Danyuk, this situation "may lead to a potential civil war."

According to experts, a great deal in how the situation will develop further in Venezuela depends on the position of the army and security forces. If they act according to the example of Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, who supported Maduro, the risk of intervention will be minimal.

Danyuk recalled that among the military there were already attempts to protest against the president. In June 2017, a group led by Interior Ministry officer Oscar Lopez attacked the Supreme Court building from a helicopter. Literally two days before Juan Guaido proclaimed himself president, a group of 27 servicemen of the National Guard who were planning an armed uprising against Nicolas Maduro was arrested.

In turn, Chichin believes that in the short term, the US will not be able to overthrow the Venezuelan authorities, but Washington is ready for a long standoff.

"This will not end today, the Americans will systematically push and stifle Venezuela," - says the expert.