"Since I was little, I vaguely thought that I would have two children and have a family of four."



However, the woman gave up on her second pregnancy and childbirth.

The reason is economic uncertainty.



According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare's announcement on the 25th, the number of children born by September this year was over 599,000



, the lowest pace ever.



With the declining birth rate progressing faster than expected, what will happen in the future?

"I want to give birth to another child..." A woman who has no choice but to give up

Kazumi Katahira (38) from Suginami Ward, Tokyo, gave birth to her first daughter four years ago at the age of 34.



After her marriage, she had been trying to get pregnant for about 10 years.



Considering her age and the fact that she had been diagnosed as needing advanced treatment, she said she made the decision to coincide with her husband's job transfer.



However, her salary was not paid for the three years she was on leave, including her childcare leave, and her fertility treatment and childbirth costs combined amounted to 3 million yen, and her savings for the future life were limited. It has decreased greatly.



In addition, after she returned to work, she changed jobs to a contract employee at another company in order to balance her work and childcare due to her commuting time, and her income combined with her husband was about 40% compared to when she was a regular employee. Decreased.



Katahira believes she will have to give up on her second child when she considers the cost of her first child's education.

"While I feel that it would be fun to have two children and become a family of four, the reality is that raising children and educating them costs a lot of money, so having a first child is financially difficult. There are aspects where I can't feel like I'm the second person."

Number of births this year at record low pace

The number of children born from January to September this year was more than 599,000 according to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare on the 25th, which is about 30,000 less than the same period last year.



The number of births last year was 811,622, and if the current pace continues for the three months until December, it is possible that the number will fall below 800,000 for the first time since 1899, when the country began collecting statistics. I have.



According to an estimate released by the major think tank "Japan Research Institute" in early this month, the final number of births this year is about 770,000, which is expected to fall below 800,000.



If it falls below 800,000, it means that the declining birthrate is progressing at a faster pace than expected, eight years earlier than the forecast announced by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in 2017.



Regarding the progress of the declining birthrate, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare said, "It may have been the effect of the prolonged corona disaster, such as refraining from marriage and pregnancy."

"Number of Births" Changes so far

The number of births was 1,386,981 in 1899, when statistics were first collected, and in 1899.



After that, the upward trend continued, and in 1949 (Showa 24), which was the "first baby boom" (1947-1949) after the end of the war, it reached the highest number of 2,696,638.



After that, there was a downward trend, but from the 1960s to the middle of the 1970s, there was a temporary increase, ushering in the "second baby boom" (1972-1974).



In 1973 (Showa 48), the number reached 2,091,983, but since then it has decreased again.



In 1989, the number was 1,246,802, and in the 1990s, it remained at around 1.2 million, but in the 2000s, it started to decline further, and in 2016, it reached 970,000. With 7242 people, it fell below 1 million for the first time.

The number of marriages “number of marriages” is also on a downward trend

The number of marriages has also continued to decline since the 2000s.



Recently, in


2019, the so-called “Reiwa wedding” increased from the previous year to 599,007 couples, but in


2020, 525,507 couples (down 73,500 couples from the previous year),


▽2021 501,138 pairs (24,369 pairs compared to the previous year), the lowest since the war.



According to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research's "Basic Survey on Birth Trends," which is conducted about once every five years, as of 2021, those who answered "I have no intention of getting married for the rest of my life" will be between the ages of 18 and 34. Since the number of marriages is increasing for both men and women in this generation, the Japan Research Institute is concerned that the number of marriages will continue to decrease in the future.

"The number of children desired by the couple" is also ...

In the Basic Survey on Birth Trends mentioned earlier, we also look at the number of children desired by couples.



As of 2021, it will be 2.25, down 0.07 from the 2015 survey.



When we asked couples whose planned number of children is less than their desired number of children to choose from multiple answers as to why they do not have the desired number of children, they answered, "Because raising children and educating them costs too much money." reason” was the most common at 52.6%.



This was followed by 40.4% who said, "I don't want to have children at an older age," and 23.9% who said, "I want to have a baby but I can't."



On the other hand, as of 2021, the number of children desired by never-married persons


is 1.82 for men and 1.79 for women, which


is a decrease of 0.09 for men and 0.23 for women compared to the previous survey.

increase.



For the first time since the survey began in 1982, the number of women has fallen below two.

Total fertility rate 2.95

There is a municipality that has doubled the "total fertility rate," which is an indicator of the number of children a woman will have in her lifetime, as part of a town-wide countermeasure against the declining birthrate.



Nagi Town, with a population of over 5,700 people, is located in the mountains of northeastern Okayama Prefecture.

This is well above the national average of 1.36.

Since 2002, 20 years ago, the town has reduced the number of town officials and assembly members by about 20% to 30% to raise the budget, and has enhanced measures for young people and those raising children.



Of these, when infertility treatment is performed as economic support before and after childbirth, 200,000 yen will be paid annually as a subsidy for 5 years, and 100,000 yen will be paid per person as a birth gift.



In addition, during the child-rearing period, children's medical expenses are free until they graduate from high school, and elementary and junior high school students are exempt from half price for school lunches.



In addition, 135,000 yen is paid annually to each high school student as commuting expenses for attending high school outside the town, creating an environment where children can live in the town until they graduate from high school.

In addition, at the "Nagi Child Home," which was set up in a vacant kindergarten building to support child-rearing, full-time nursery teachers and others provide child-rearing consultations, and local elderly people take care of children temporarily. you can get service.



In addition, the "Work Convenience Store Business" for mothers who want to work while raising children is a service that introduces various job requests from local companies, such as creating leaflets and farming. Currently, about 270 people have registered. It means that there is

Eiji Moriyasu, Counselor of the Nagi Town Information Planning Division, said, "It's been 20 years since we put effort into child-rearing support, and we've finally seen results. It's a big pillar inside, and it's 1-chome, so I'd like to continue to listen to the voices of the younger generation and support them."

what do the experts see

We asked two experts who are familiar with population and declining birthrate issues about the current situation and what is needed in the future.



Takumi Fujinami, senior researcher at the Japan Research Institute, said, "In 2015, the number of births exceeded 1 million, and if things continue at this rate, it will decrease by more than 20% in just seven years. It is thought that there will be a major impact on social security issues and economic growth, so countermeasures are an urgent issue."



On top of that, he said, ``In the 1990s, the number of births was relatively stable at about 1.2 million, and children in that age group are in their 20s and 30s, and they are about to get married and have children. The next 10 years will likely be a particularly important period for addressing the declining birthrate."

Professor Shigeki Matsuda of Chukyo University said, "It's becoming difficult to maintain the economy and society of the country, and we need to take it seriously. Furthermore, the number of births has clearly decreased since 2020, and the corona crisis is visible. It is thought that there is also an impact of



On top of that, he said, ``The progress of the declining birthrate is said to be a 'quiet emergency,' and in the long run it will weaken the country's social security, prosperity, and national power. However, it is necessary for each and every citizen to understand the necessity and take measures to get the birth rate back on track as soon as possible."