A "market curious" corner where you can understand the movements of financial markets.
Every day, the tense situation in Ukraine is reported, and the financial markets are being shaken.
The distance between Ukraine and Japan is over 8,000 kilometers.
How is what is happening in distant Eastern Europe spilling over into financial markets?
(Aya Shinoda, Reporter, Ministry of Economic Affairs)
"Russian and Belarusian joint military exercises will begin on February 10"
"The Byden administration approves a plan to support the U.S. forces that sent their evacuated citizens to neighboring Poland in preparation for the Russian invasion.
" While the news is quivering, talks between Russia and the leaders and foreign ministers of each country are being reported every day.
These news will soon spread to the energy futures market.
On February 4, WTI futures prices rose to the $ 93 level per barrel at one point in the New York crude oil market.
It reached the level for the first time in about 7 years and 4 months.
As of the 10th, 1 barrel = $ 89 level (as of 17:00 on the 10th), which seems to have settled down a little, but it is still in the high price range.
Why is the tension between Russia and Western countries over the situation in Ukraine leading to soaring crude oil futures prices?
According to market participants, they are most wary of the "pipeline risk" of natural gas.
European countries are supplied with Russian natural gas by pipeline.
It is said that 40% of natural gas demand depends on Russia.
Some of them actually go through Ukraine.
If Russia imposes supply restrictions or if an armed conflict occurs in Ukraine and the pipeline is damaged, energy shortages will occur.
Such anxieties and concerns are being whispered in the market.
Furthermore, if the supply of natural gas decreases, the demand for oil as an alternative energy may increase, and it is said that such an association is also a factor pushing up crude oil prices.
Yet another route that has a ripple effect on financial markets is agricultural products.
Ukraine is known as a global producer of rapeseed, corn and wheat.
According to Mr. Satoshi Yoshida of Rakuten Securities, who is familiar with the international commodity market, rapeseed is the third largest in the world, rapeseed is the third largest in the world, and wheat is the sixth largest in the world in terms of export volume.
I am worried that the supply of such agricultural products will be delayed.
That has sparked from Ukraine to Chicago, where the global agricultural futures market is located, leading to higher international commodity prices.
Rising prices in international commodity prices have led to higher prices for rapeseed, corn, and various foods that use wheat, and we, who live in Japan, cannot be indifferent.
In addition, one market source said that if the tensions in Ukraine continued into early spring, it would affect sowing and even the autumn harvest season.
How will the tension in the situation in Ukraine affect the Japanese market and daily life in the future?
I realize that the world is connected, and I would like to pay close attention to it as "my own thing."
Scheduled to pay attention
In the week of the 14th, the preliminary GDP figures of Japan from October to December last year will be announced on the 15th.
US retail sales will be announced on the 17th, and attention will be focused on the impact of the spread of Omicron strains and rising prices on personal consumption.
And the biggest focus is the minutes of the FOMC meeting last month.
In order to determine the pace of future rate hikes and asset reductions in the United States, what was the content of the discussions at the meeting, which suggested that the meeting would be more "hawkish" and decided to raise interest rates at the March meeting. It will be important information.