(Year-end Economic Observation) Will global food prices rise by 1.4 billion Chinese people's "rice bowls" will be affected?
China News Service, Beijing, December 26. Title: Will the global food price rise by 1.4 billion Chinese people’s “rice bowls” be affected?
China News Agency reporter Chen Su
Affected by factors such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic, global food prices have generally risen this year. Data released by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization shows that the food price index has risen for six consecutive months, reaching the highest level since the end of 2014.
Will rising international food prices affect China's food security?
Is the "rice bowl" of China's 1.4 billion people guaranteed next year?
Rations are absolutely safe
According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China's total grain output will reach 1,339 billion jin in 2020, an increase of 11.3 billion jin over the previous year, and it has remained above 1300 billion jin for six consecutive years.
"The Chinese people's'rice bowl' is always firmly in their own hands." Zhang Hongyu, deputy dean of the China Rural Research Institute of Tsinghua University, told a reporter from China News Agency that in the context of this year's bumper grain harvest, the Central Economic Work Conference will still maintain food security. As one of the key tasks, it shows great importance to food security.
China adheres to the security concept of "basically self-sufficiency in grains and absolute security in rations", which ensures that the Chinese people can eat.
In the opinion of experts, China attaches great importance to ration security. It has long-term self-sufficiency in rice and wheat, and the supply of rations is minimally affected by international food prices.
Chen Youquan, a first-level inspector of the Planting Management Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that China's grain production has increased at a high level this year, and the total supply and demand are basically balanced.
The per capita amount of grain reached about 480 kg, which is higher than the 400 kg international food security standard.
The production and demand of the two major rations of rice and wheat are well balanced, and the inventory is abundant.
Although corn production was flat and slightly reduced, and with all aspects of inventory, supply and demand were basically balanced.
Structural gaps need attention
While rations are self-sufficient, there is a structural gap in China's food supply, especially soybeans are highly dependent on foreign countries.
In recent years, China’s largest import volume of agricultural products is soybeans. According to customs data, a total of 92.8 million tons of soybeans were imported from January to November this year, an increase of 17.5% year-on-year. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that the annual soybean imports will exceed 100 million tons.
At the same time, international soybean prices have risen significantly, driving up the cost of imported soybeans in China.
In November, the after-tax price of imported soybeans in Shandong was RMB 1.91 per catty, a month-on-month increase for 6 consecutive months and a year-on-year increase of 17%.
In the case of rising international soybean prices, will China's soybean supply be affected?
Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the rise in international food prices is mainly a restorative increase and has not yet reached the highest level in history.
The impact on China is mainly due to the high degree of dependence of soybeans on foreign countries. It is necessary to pay attention to the price transmission effect, strengthen early warning, and make structural balance.
International soybean prices are not expected to rise significantly in the future.
China's corn production has slightly decreased this year, and the price of corn has risen to a six-year high.
Li Guoxiang said that in the face of rising prices, farmers' enthusiasm for planting corn will increase, and the planting area will increase significantly next year.
In addition, the current increase in animal food consumption in China has increased the demand for feed grain. Taking into account the changes in the consumption structure, the Chinese government has also increased its support for corn planting.
Tight balance exists for a long time
According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's forecasts, the global food supply and demand in 2020/2021 will be generally ample and will not support the long-term surge in food prices.
However, considering the development of the epidemic and disaster situation is still unclear, short-term international markets may still experience large fluctuations.
China’s grain has been harvested year after year, reserves are sufficient, and supplies are abundant. Although food security is safe in the short term, as a populous country, China’s grain supply and demand are still in a tight balance in the medium and long term, and the string of food security needs to be tightened at all times.
"Under the current complicated situation in the world as a whole, in the face of fluctuations in the international food market, we must plan, strengthen early warning, and do a good structural balance. At the same time, we must further improve the food security situation and reduce the international impact on China’s food security. Impact." Li Guoxiang said.
Zhang Hongyu said that in the new era, two “top priorities” should be taken in terms of food security: one is to solve the problem of seed industry, and the other is to solve the problem of arable land.
Regarding the seed issue, it is necessary to play the role of the nationwide system, overcome difficulties through science and technology, increase the level of grain yield, maintain total growth, maintain the safety bottom line of ration self-sufficiency, and solve the shortcomings in structure, quality and efficiency.
In terms of arable land, the red line of 1.8 billion mu of arable land must be firmly maintained, to ensure that the area of arable land for staple food does not shrink, and to speed up the construction of a batch of high-standard farmland.
"We must insist on giving priority to the development of agriculture and rural areas, increase investment in agriculture, improve agricultural infrastructure conditions, deepen rural reforms, mobilize the enthusiasm of hundreds of millions of farmers to grow grain, and increase income from growing grain through the development of scale operations such as grain growing cooperatives and grain processing enterprises. ." Zhang Hongyu said.
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