(Economic Observation) China's chicken price drops to one-third of pork

  China News Service, Beijing, September 16 (Reporter Chen Su) According to recent data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the price of chicken meat in August fell 1.6% year-on-year, the first drop in nearly three years.

Recently, the price of chicken has fallen to about one-third of that of pork.

Some Chinese netizens said that "chicken freedom" is expected to be realized.

  The latest monitoring data of the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that from September 4 to September 10, 2020, the white striped chicken was 16.60 yuan (RMB, the same below)/kg, compared with the beginning of this year (18.84 yuan/kg). Kg) decreased by 11.9%.

Compared with chicken, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 48.18 yuan/kg, and the price of chicken is about one-third of the price of pork.

  Speaking of why the price of chicken meat continued to fall this year, Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters from China News Agency that due to the impact of African swine fever, pork prices rose sharply last year, which drove the increase in the price of alternative meat and chicken, causing chicken farmers. Enthusiasm increased and breeding was expanded. Last year, broiler production showed a double-digit growth and the supply expanded rapidly.

  According to data from China Industry Information Network, in 2017, the year before the outbreak of African swine fever, China's chicken consumption was 11.475 million tons. In 2019, the national chicken consumption rose to 14.273 million tons.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's poultry production in the first half of this year increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and broiler production capacity has remained high.

  In addition, this year's new crown pneumonia epidemic has also reduced the demand for chicken consumption.

Chicken farming company Xiantan shares said that in the first half of 2020, affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, companies and schools have not fully resumed work and school, downstream customers are under-operating, terminal consumer demand has not yet returned to normal levels, and the sales price of the company's chicken products has fallen year-on-year.

  "Compared with cattle and sheep, chickens have a short growth cycle and fast reproductive capacity. A chicken can lay 200 eggs a year, and the eggs can hatch chicks, so chicken production capacity can be expanded rapidly. Since last year, chicken production capacity has expanded rapidly, resulting in There is oversupply and prices are falling.” Li Guoxiang said.

  Affected by the downturn in chicken prices, many chicken companies experienced significant declines in their performance in the first half of the year.

Fast food companies such as McDonald's and KFC in China have also set off a wave of discounts and promotions for chicken products.

  Looking forward to the trend of chicken prices in the later period, China Food Industry Analyst Zhu Danpeng said that the future price of chicken meat depends on the leverage of supply and demand. If farmers feel that they cannot make money and the supply is less, the price will rise again.

With the arrival of the school season in September, the demand for chicken meat may improve slightly, but at present, due to the oversupply situation has not changed, the price of chicken meat has little room for recovery.

  Li Guoxiang said that although the supply of chicken is relatively abundant and the price has fallen, it is still in a relatively normal price range. Coupled with the uncertainty of short-term pork prices, the substitute demand for chicken still exists, and the decline in chicken prices will further expand demand. In the later period, the price of chicken has a limited decline.

  Since last year, affected by the African swine fever, pork prices in China have risen sharply. This year, with the control of African swine fever, the production capacity of pigs has gradually recovered. However, since August, pork prices in China have begun to rebound after a few months of continuous decline.

  In this regard, the relevant person in charge of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China said that after the epidemic, pork consumption demand was released, and pork consumption increased seasonally during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. In the near future, pork is still tight in general.

With the continuous recovery of live pig production capacity and the increase in pork imports, the relationship between supply and demand in the fourth quarter will be further eased. It is expected that the average pork price will be lower than the level of the same period last year.