Xinhua News Agency, Shanghai, May 11 Question: Is there any investment opportunity for the gold price to hit a new high in more than eight years?
Xinhua News Agency reporters Chen Yunfu and Sang Tong
After the previous rally was "lagging behind", the RMB gold price is gradually catching up with the international market. In the first trading week after the May Day holiday, Shanghai gold futures prices hit a new high in more than eight years.
Recognized as a safe-haven investment product in the global market, the new coronary pneumonia epidemic has spread at home and abroad, and gold's safe-haven "glow" has reappeared. Since this year, domestic and international gold prices have increased by more than 10%. As more and more overseas economies lift restrictions and restart economic activity, is gold still worth investing in?
Domestic gold prices hit a record high of over 10% this year
In the first trading week after the "May Day" small holiday, domestic gold prices rose again. Data show that by the 8th close, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures closed at 383.38 yuan per gram, a new high since September 2011, but the overseas market is relatively stable, and the price of gold in the New York market continues to hover above $ 1,700 per ounce.
Although this year's gold market is not as eye-popping as the oil market, its twists and turns and regional differences are also impressive.
"Under the epidemic environment, the market generally believes that the price of gold should rise, but so far the overall price of gold has shown an 'N'-shaped trend." Gold market expert Wang Chao said that this year, there are many factors that support the price of gold, before the outbreak International and domestic gold prices have risen; after the spread of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic overseas, hedging demand continues to push up gold prices, but the turmoil in the US stock market caused by panic in the market and other financial market turmoil caused the gold market to retreat once.
Statistics show that since the beginning of this year, the prices of gold in the international markets of New York and London have increased by about 12%, while the prices of futures and spot gold in the domestic market have risen by more than 10%, which has been eye-catching in major assets.
As an important gold consumer, domestic investors have also rarely had the opportunity to buy gold cheaper than the international market this year. "In April, the domestic gold price was nearly 20 yuan per gram lower than the London market, and much lower than the New York market. In the past, the domestic market price was often higher than the international market by 2 to 3 yuan per gram." Shandong Gold Chief Analyst Ji Express.
According to the World Gold Council data, after the "May 1st" holiday, the domestic market "compensated the increase". The discount rate of the domestic gold price compared with the international gold price has been narrowed, but it is still lower than the international market by about 4 yuan per gram.
The epidemic affects the price of gold but uncertainty remains
With the resumption of production and production to promote the recovery of consumption, domestic consumption of physical gold has also gradually improved. A salesperson of China Gold told reporters that before and after the May Day holiday, the number of consumers buying gold bars and gold ornaments increased significantly, but the phenomenon of some investors redeeming at high prices in the previous period also continued.
"Although many analyses are bullish on gold and the price of gold is also rising, it is an indisputable fact that the current price is at a high level for those who buy every year." The post-80s Shanghai white-collar Ms. Han's wait and see represents many investors Mentality.
However, in the securitization investment market, the enthusiasm of investors has not been affected by factors such as the epidemic. According to data from the China Futures Association, from January to April this year, the volume of gold futures increased by 45% year-on-year, while the turnover increased by 82% year-on-year. During the same period, the trading volume of the Shanghai Gold Exchange also increased by nearly 30%.
In addition, investment in gold ETFs is not weak. According to the data provided by Jia Shuchang, the research manager of the China Association of the World Gold Council, the domestic gold ETF positions increased by about 7.6 tons in the first quarter. In April, the positions increased further by about 1 ton. By the end of the first quarter, the management scale of domestic gold ETF funds had reached 19 billion yuan, a record high.
In the opinion of experts, the performance of the later gold market still depends on the progress of the epidemic. "It is not ruled out that the deterioration of economic data in the later period triggered a new round of market panic, but after the price of gold rises, investors should also prevent liquidity tensions from triggering a fall in the price of gold," said Jiang Shu, chief analyst at Jinyang Mining.
Wanzhou Gold ’s analysis believes that, in fact, the risks and opportunities brought by the epidemic to the gold market are equal. The loose monetary policy in the epidemic environment is expected to push up the price of gold, but after the global economy recovers, gold has hedged The function will gradually dissipate. "In the gold market, prices generally benefit more from uncertainty," said Andrea Christo, president of Heraeus' precious metals business.
Which is strong in physical, paper gold, ETF, futures gold investment
Channels for domestic market investors to participate in gold investment include the purchase of physical gold bars, paper gold, ETFs, and participation in futures trading. In the opinion of experts, in the face of gold investments that significantly outperform other assets, finding the right investment method is the key to winning.
"Buying physical gold is the most common way. It is more convenient to buy, but it is not easy to store and redeem." Wang Chao said that physical gold bars need to be kept by investors themselves. Once the cash needs to be realized later, redemption also faces higher procedures. fee.
Relatively speaking, securitized investment is more convenient, and it has become the choice of the younger generation of investors. "Paper gold and ETF funds do not need to own gold, and they can also obtain the benefits of the rising gold market." Ms. Han said that compared with the investment concept of the parent generation, most of the younger generation of investors are not cold about holding physical gold. , Paper gold, ETF and even futures are more suitable ways to participate.
"The key to choosing the right investment method is to clarify the investment purpose." Jiang Shu pointed out that for short-term investment, buying physical gold may not be the appropriate method. Futures and other channels that are more volatile may be more suitable for selection, but the risk is also greater.
Invest in gold, the role of gold should be further clarified. "Only analyzing and judging the role of gold from the short-term trend is one-sided, and gold is an asset that is more suitable for long-term holding." Wang Lixin, Managing Director of China, World Gold Council said.