Benny Gantz, a member of Israel's war cabinet and former defense minister, threatened on February 18 that if the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) did not release all Israeli detainees before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which is expected to begin on March 10 personnel, the Israeli army will launch a ground military operation in the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah.
Although the 26 EU countries warned Israel on February 19 not to attack Rafah to avoid exacerbating the already serious humanitarian disaster there, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated on February 20 that Israel is determined to achieve all goals of the current operation in the Gaza Strip. , including a complete victory over Hamas, no amount of pressure can change this desire.
On the same day, the United States once again exclusively vetoed a draft resolution drafted by Algeria calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the Gaza Strip at the United Nations Security Council, triggering strong dissatisfaction and anger from the international community.
Israel says Rafah battle 'inevitable'
Since a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict broke out in October 2023, Israel has launched a ground offensive from north to south in the Gaza Strip, and the war is currently "burning" to the southernmost city of Rafah.
The people of Gaza are likely to lose their "last safe city."
In the early morning of February 12, the Israel Defense Forces dispatched ground troops and fighter jets to storm Rafah, killing more than a hundred people.
After that, according to the Associated Press, the Israeli army launched air strikes on Rafah almost every day.
On February 19, Reuters quoted Israeli sources as saying that Israel plans to launch a ground offensive against Rafah, and the comprehensive military operation in Gaza is expected to last for 6-8 weeks.
Rafah, which borders Egypt, was once considered "the last relatively safe place" for Gaza people. In the early days of the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Israel asked residents in the northern part of the Gaza Strip to evacuate to the south.
Rafah is also the main entry point for international humanitarian aid and is almost the only channel for local refugees to obtain food, water and medicine.
But now, Israel's attitude towards attacking Rafah is very tough.
The Israeli army claimed that there were four battalions of Hamas troops in Rafah.
Israel believes that without the elimination of these four battalions, it will be impossible to achieve the three major war goals proposed by Netanyahu, namely: eliminate Hamas, rescue all detained persons, and ensure that the Gaza Strip no longer poses a security threat to Israel. .
Israel's "Jerusalem Post" reported on February 17, quoting an Israeli military source, that the battle for Rafah was "inevitable" and "the war cannot end without attacking Rafah."
Kobe Michael, a senior researcher at the Israel Institute for National Security Studies, further analyzed that Israel also intends to use the Battle of Rafah to control the "Philadelphia Corridor" from Rafah south to Egypt to prevent weapons smuggling into Gaza and prevent senior Hamas officials from smuggling weapons into Gaza. Leaders enter Egypt.
Information shows that the "Philadelphia Corridor" is 14 kilometers long. According to the peace agreement signed between Egypt and Israel in 1979, this narrow strip was designated as a military buffer zone controlled by Israel. However, after Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it also controlled The "Philadelphia Corridor."
As of now, Israel has not disclosed the specific timetable for the ground battle in Rafah.
In response to Gantz's "ultimatum" issued to Hamas on February 18, some analysts said that on the one hand, Israel set the deadline in Ramadan, which is of great significance to Muslims, in order to retaliate against Hamas's decision on October 7 last year. , launched an attack on Israel on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War; on the other hand, Israel chose to set aside a certain amount of time to facilitate war preparations, and also intended to use military toughness to negotiate with Hamas on the exchange of detained personnel. Take the initiative.
The United States has pushed the situation in Gaza into a more dangerous situation
As the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues, the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip has worsened at an unprecedented rate.
Qatar's Al Jazeera reported that before the current round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict broke out, Rafah, which covers an area of only 64 square kilometers, accommodated 275,000 people, but now 1.4 million refugees are gathered here.
Filippo Grandi, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, said that if the Israeli army continues its military attacks on Rafah, a large number of Palestinians will flow into Egypt from Rafah, which will be detrimental to the Palestinians, Egypt and the prospects for peace in the Middle East. It would be a disaster.
In this regard, Netanyahu's solution is that the Israeli army has cleared the northern area of Rafah in advance, will provide a "safe passage" to the people of Rafah, and guide the people to temporarily evacuate through "leaflets, mobile phone messages" and other means. Evacuate and seek refuge in northern areas.
However, according to a report by the US "Wall Street Journal" on February 20, the Israeli army is building a road through central Gaza to prevent Gazans who have fled to the south from returning to the north, thereby maintaining control of the Gaza Strip after the conflict with Hamas ends. control.
In addition, due to Israel's continued bombing of the Gaza Strip, the Gaza health department stated on February 18 that the Nasser Hospital, the largest hospital in southern Gaza that was still operating, had "completely stopped services."
The World Food Program issued a statement on February 20 saying that it had suspended the delivery of aid supplies to the northern Gaza Strip.
Medical staff from Doctors Without Borders admitted, "There is no choice but to let the most seriously injured die."
As Israel is under increasing pressure from international public opinion, the United States' previous stance of "supporting Israel" seems to be loosening.
In a phone call with Netanyahu on February 15, U.S. President Biden stated that Israel should not proceed until it has developed a reliable and implementable plan to ensure that civilians in Rafah receive security and the support they need. Advance military operations in Rafah.
On the same day, the Wall Street Journal disclosed that the United States was considering imposing sanctions on Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.
On February 20, the United States proposed "a temporary ceasefire in Gaza as soon as possible" in a draft resolution submitted to the United Nations Security Council. This was the first time the United States explicitly supported a ceasefire in Gaza since the outbreak of the current round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
On the same day, the United States once again exclusively vetoed a draft resolution proposed by Algeria on behalf of Arab countries calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on the 21st that the current humanitarian situation in Gaza is extremely serious. The United States has once again exclusively vetoed the situation, pushing the situation in Gaza into a more dangerous situation. All relevant parties, including China, have expressed strong disappointment and dissatisfaction with this.
The British "Guardian" also pointed out that the United States' position of advocating a "temporary ceasefire" in Gaza is intended to leave room for maneuver for the Israeli military.
In fact, the United States has not put substantial pressure on Israel, but is still "stoking fire".
On February 12, the U.S. Senate passed a bill allocating $14 billion to aid Israel.
The "Middle East Observation" website also analyzed that the United States' position on the Gaza issue is caught in a contradiction. It not only hopes to protect Israel's so-called "right of self-defense", but also wants to control the escalation and spread of the situation.
British Reuters bluntly stated that the United States' criticism of Israel is only verbal and is not conducive to "cooling down" the situation in the Middle East.
Biden's main goal is to regain the support of young voters and other anti-war opponents, because "these people may play a key role in the 2024 U.S. election."
EU launches Red Sea convoy independently, leaving US and UK aside
In view of the contradictory stance of the United States on the Gaza issue, the European Union has begun to intentionally distance itself from the United States.
On February 19, the EU announced that it would "start anew" and have the EU fleet conduct escort operations in the Red Sea.
The Council of the European Union introduced in a press communiqué that the escort operation plan aimed at "restoring and maintaining freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and the Gulf" will last for one year and can be renewed.
The EU fleet is only used to protect civilian ships in the Red Sea and will not actively attack Houthi armed positions in Yemen.
Countries such as France, Germany, Italy and Belgium have planned to send warships to participate.
Previously, the United States announced in December 2023 that it would take the lead in forming an escort alliance called "Prosperity Guardians", claiming to attack and weaken the Houthi armed forces from the source. However, only a few countries such as the United Kingdom and Greece responded publicly.
At the same time, the United States and the United Kingdom have launched multiple air strikes against Houthi armed targets in Yemen since January 12 this year, causing many casualties and triggering further retaliation by the Houthi armed forces.
The Houthi armed forces issued a statement on February 20 stating that the organization launched attacks on multiple Israeli and American targets in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden that day.
The Red Sea is one of the important sea lanes connecting Asia, Africa and Europe, and most of the EU's trade with Asia passes through this sea area.
Paolo Gentiloni, the European Commissioner responsible for the economy, said on February 15 that due to the impact of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, shipping that originally passed through the Red Sea has changed its route, which has resulted in an increase of 10 to 15 days in shipping time between Europe and Asia, and a surge in transportation costs. About 400%.
In order to reduce transportation costs and avoid being involved in the conflict with the Houthi armed forces, the EU decided to leave the United States and Britain aside and launch a separate Red Sea escort.
There are multiple considerations of the EU behind this: First, if the EU joins forces with the United States and Britain to attack the Houthi armed forces, it means standing directly on the opposite side of the Houthi armed forces, which is contrary to its core aspirations of easing the situation and quelling the conflict.
Secondly, within the EU, there are growing voices opposing Israel's actions and calling for a ceasefire and an end to the war, and protests and demonstrations have occurred one after another.
Against the backdrop of the rise of populism and the far right, the EU needs to stabilize internally in preparation for the European Parliament elections to be held in June.
Third, the EU made it clear that the establishment of a convoy fleet "will ensure the presence of the EU Navy in the Red Sea."
Selin Uysal, a visiting scholar at the Washington Institute in the United States, analyzed that the EU independently carries out Red Sea escort operations and does not want its naval power to be controlled by the United States, which reflects its long-standing strategic autonomy policy.
However, the EU's escort operation called "Shield" is mainly defensive, and its deterrence and actual effect are ultimately limited.
To ease tensions in the Red Sea region, we must ultimately promote a ceasefire in Gaza.
Special staff writer Li Yang, China Youth Daily·China Youth Daily reporter Chen Xiaoru Source: China Youth Daily