The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released an update to the World Economic Outlook Report, raising its global economic growth forecast for 2024 to 3.1%. As we enter the new year, the crisis in Ukraine is not over yet, the conflict between Palestine and Israel is filled with smoke, and the issue of climate change has become increasingly serious. How will the international economic situation develop?

  Chen Fengying, former director and researcher of the Institute of World Economics at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said that the development of the global market is still serious, mainly manifested in three aspects: First, geopolitical instability will directly affect the geoeconomics, the Red Sea incident, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict etc. will have a direct impact on commodity prices; second, the tension in international relations superimposes the "super election year", leading to the internationalization of domestic issues and the politicization of economic issues, which will further aggravate the tension in international relations; the third is "risk removal" It may become long-term, such as the "de-risking" of the Western economy and the reorganization of industrial and supply chains, which will affect international trade and international investment.

  When talking about the European economic situation, Wang Shuo, a professor at the School of International Relations at Beijing Foreign Studies University, pointed out that although the European economic situation has eased compared with last year, it is still slightly different than before. This reflects that efforts to curb inflation continue to play a role, but as the external economic environment changes, the effect is still uncertain.

  How will the global economy develop in 2024? Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, said that 2024 will be an important turning point for the global economy and finance. Being here, we must not only get involved, actively participate, and seize the new opportunities that arise at the beginning of the new cycle; we must also further strengthen risk awareness and maintain a rational and prudent objective attitude, so that we can better avoid risks and cope with challenges. (Zhang Wenhui Gao Yantang)

Editor in charge: [Luo Pan]