Israeli analysts spoke of a gradual return to Hamas, and one of them said that the movement would regain its global glory (French)
Occupied Jerusalem
- With the continuing fighting in the Gaza Strip, the ambiguity adopted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the exchange deal, and the secrecy of the details of the Israeli plan for the day after the war, Israeli analysts unanimously estimated that “Hamas will remain in the Strip,” and Tel Aviv and the international community must deal with it. With this fact.
While positions varied regarding the features of this survival and the gradual restoration of Hamas’s control over the Gaza Strip, these estimates agreed that the Israeli emergency government failed to achieve the goals of the war by overthrowing the movement’s civil and political rule, undermining its military arsenal, and returning Israeli detainees, as the Israeli army failed to free even a single hostage from... During ground military operations.
In reading the reality of the day after the war, many analyzes suggested that Hamas would use the exchange deal to end the war, and therefore, after the ceasefire, even if the Palestinian Authority was returned to the Gaza Strip, Hamas must be involved in civilian rule in the Strip.
Analysts’ readings agree that no party, whether the Palestinian Authority or the Israeli military administration, can rule and control the Gaza Strip without Hamas, or fill the administrative and civil vacuum. Therefore, Israel is obligated to recognize this, and if the Palestinian Authority wants a foothold in Gaza, it must involve Hamas government.
"rational politics"
In an article entitled “The administration of Gaza requires the integration and involvement of residents who worked for Hamas,” Zvi Barel, an analyst for Arab and Middle Eastern affairs in the newspaper “Haaretz,” hints that the Hamas movement will remain the day after the war, and that any authority cannot fill the void, and must That this movement participate in the civil affairs of Gazans.
Barel explained that if Israel does not want to manage the Gaza Strip itself, it will be forced to allow the Palestinian Authority to enter the Gaza Strip and receive tens of thousands of public sector employees, the majority of whom are from Hamas. He said, "The ceasefire represents an opportunity to hand over control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority, even before it implements the necessary reforms."
Barel says, "Certainly, such an idea today seems naive and unrealistic in the eyes of the Israelis, but even the Israeli concept, and the government's promise to annihilate every trace of Hamas, persecute its people and take revenge on them until the end, is not realistic, and cannot have a place in rational politics."
The analyst pointed out that proposing broad outlines for the management of Gaza the day after the war is based on the practical assumption that “even if Hamas’s military infrastructure is undermined, there will still be thousands of activists committed to the movement politically and militarily.”
It is believed that Hamas fighters will have the ability to wage large-scale battles against the Israeli army, and they will remain in all areas of the Strip, and hundreds of kilometers of tunnels can still be used by them.
In his analysis, Bar'el suggested that "Hamas will remain able to launch military operations and low-intensity war, with large quantities of weapons, ammunition, missiles, and equipment that remain in its possession, and which it will produce more of on the day following the war."
"Hamas Strengthening Policy"
Shani Cohen, a researcher at the Israeli Institute for Renewed Democracy "Mold", believes that Netanyahu's approach of escaping forward, and the Israeli government's failure to accept any negotiations the day after the war, or any settlement to end the conflict, and the repeating that there is no Palestinian partner, pave the way again for Hamas to return to power. In Gaza.
Cohen said, “The Israeli claim promoted by Netanyahu, through which he claims that there is no difference between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, paves the way for a return to the policy of strengthening Hamas and its position Palestinian and regionally, because of what the movement achieved with the sudden attack on the areas surrounding Gaza, and the achievements it achieved vis-à-vis the army.” "Israeli."
She added, "Instead of learning the lesson and drawing lessons, Netanyahu returns to the same old strategy, and talks about destroying Hamas with one hand, a goal that was not achieved by the war, but he works to weaken its political alternative represented by the Palestinian Authority, even in the West Bank, and thus strengthen Hamas, because of what it achieved." Of achievements.”
The deal is to enhance governance
The former Israeli National Security Advisor, Meir Ben-Shabbat, seemed more clear in his analysis, as he wrote in his article in the newspaper “Israel Hayom” that “Hamas is using the exchange deal not only to end the war, but also to ensure the continuation of its rule in the Gaza Strip, and to benefit from its achievements, to be a lever in "Recovering the points lost in the past among the Palestinian public in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank."
From the former advisor's point of view, the main price that Israel must pay for the first phase of the deal is the risk of ending the war without overthrowing Hamas' rule, with the release of Palestinian prisoners who will significantly enhance its capabilities, specifically in the areas of the West Bank.
Ben Shabbat says, “The statements of the Israeli political level about its commitment to achieving all the goals of the war are important, but they are not sufficient, and since Hamas assumes that the internal situation in Israel will affect the motivation to resume fighting, it is necessary to reach in advance a broad Israeli agreement to return and fight at the end of the cessation.” shooting".
Ben Shabbat claimed that “Hamas will try to establish a ceasefire to prevent the renewal of the war, in a semi-official arrangement with Qatar and Egypt, by releasing the remaining kidnapped Israelis, in exchange for the release of more prisoners, and the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip to the October 6 lines.” A commitment to avoid a ground invasion, and international guarantees to begin the Gaza reconstruction program.”
He believes that Hamas needs these elements to frame the final scene and image of the war, in addition to the image of the surprise attack and the opening blow it directed at Israel. “With these achievements that it imposed on Israel, Hamas will restore its glory globally, and destroy Israel’s image as invincible.”
Source: Al Jazeera