Will the earth experience another heat wave in 2024?

　　【Today’s Viewpoint】

　　◎Our reporter Zhang Jiaxin

　　The World Meteorological Organization issued a press release on January 12, officially confirming that 2023 will be the hottest year on record. This broke the warmest record and exceeded many climate scientists' expectations.

　　The warming may not have stopped yet. In 2024, the El Niño weather pattern enters its second year, which typically increases global warming. In January, warm water poured into the eastern tropical Pacific, and global ocean temperatures were significantly higher than the average for the same period. An article published on the British "Nature" website stated that as humans continue to emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, more extreme weather and climate events may occur in 2024 than in 2023.

　　Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said heat waves will continue in 2024, but it is impossible to predict when and where they will occur.

The average annual temperature may exceed the threshold

　　According to data released by multiple service agencies in early January, the global average surface temperature in 2023 will be 1.34℃-1.54℃ higher than the pre-industrial level (1850-1900). According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, daily temperatures last year were at least 1°C above the pre-industrial average, the first time on record.

　　Estimates vary due to different data sets used, but all analyzes conclude that the global average annual temperature is close to or above the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement. Data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows that nearly half of the days in 2023 will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average, with two days in November exceeding 2°C.

　　Analysis by the British National Meteorological Office believes that the temperature in 2023 will be 1.46°C higher than the pre-industrial average. The agency predicts that in 2024, the global average surface temperature is likely to exceed the 1.5°C mark. Nick Dunstone, a climate scientist leading the work, said this was the first time they had made such a prediction. However, warming above 1.5°C a year does not mean that the world is in violation of the Paris Agreement. Researchers say it would take a decade or more to exceed that threshold before a formal determination can be made.

　　The extreme climate and weather impacts of 2023 highlight how humans have fundamentally changed the planet. Climate scientists say the current experience is a preview of what's to come if action is not taken now.

2023 may be the hottest year in 100,000 years

　　Various climate data services agree that 2023 experienced the hottest day on record (July 6), the hottest month on record (July), and the hottest months on record (July). Including June to December). When researchers combined modern temperature records with paleoclimate temperature indicators, they found that 2023 could be the hottest year in 100,000 years.

　　Burgess said there are many factors contributing to extreme weather in 2023. In 2023, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels hit a record high, reaching 36.8 billion tons. The 2022 eruption of Tonga's volcano, which injected heat-trapping water vapor into the atmosphere, was also a factor.

　　Another factor is El Niño. Simulations suggest that Earth is now at or near the peak of El Niño. Burgess said the current high levels of heat in the world's oceans could fuel marine heat waves in the coming months.

　　But researchers are still undecided whether the extreme temperatures in 2023 are a sign that global warming is accelerating or if they are due in part to fluctuations caused by natural changes in the global climate system.

　　Berkeley Earth, a U.S. non-profit research organization, said temperatures began to soar ahead of El Niño in June 2023, in part due to natural changes in the North Atlantic and other areas. The team predicts that there is a 58% chance that this year will be warmer than last, and that 2024 will definitely be the hottest or second-warmest year on record.

Future scenarios of climate change have emerged

　　Affected by climate change, extreme weather will occur frequently in 2023. These include Category 5 Hurricane Otis, which slammed into the Mexican city of Acapulco, killing dozens of people. Smoke from wildfires in Quebec, Canada, in June and July spread to many cities in the Midwest and Northeast of the United States, and even traveled across the ocean to parts of Europe. In July and August, fires raged across Greece, burning forests and claiming the lives of many people and animals. In August, on the Hawaiian island of Maui, a wildfire caused by strong winds and invasive weeds killed at least 100 people.

　　Heat waves have also scorched many parts of the world. Phoenix, Arizona, USA has experienced high temperatures of 43°C or above for 31 consecutive days. In Mexico, a heat wave in July killed more than 200 people. Three years of severe drought and climate change have left East Africa facing both a food crisis and a refugee crisis.

　　By the end of 2023, at the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Dubai, global leaders agreed to transition away from fossil fuels for the first time, but many saw the move as "too little" compared to the huge impact of climate change. , too late”.

　　“Future scenarios of climate change are already here,” said Teresa Cavazos, a climate scientist at the Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education in Ensenada, Mexico. “We don’t need to wait another 15 or 20 years to see what’s expected. possible changes and impacts in the future.” (Science and Technology Daily)