Military experts to Al Jazeera Net: These are escalation scenarios on the coast of Yemen

The United States launched dozens of raids on Houthi sites in Yemen this month (Reuters)

Sanaa -

Yemeni sources spoke of American and British intentions to try to control the coasts and ports of Yemen on the Red Sea, which have been under the control of the Ansar Allah group (Houthis) since 2015.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, military expert Major General Khaled Ghorab did not rule out that the Americans and British would turn to the scenario of controlling the Yemeni coast on the Red Sea.

He said that this is "an option on the table that we are studying, taking seriously, and preparing for." But he believes that "the rules of engagement will remain in their current state, and the Americans will not seek escalation."

Regarding the Houthis’ ability to close the Red Sea if the confrontation with the United States and Britain escalates, Major General Ghorab said, “A complete closure will not happen unless the Americans try to escalate, and if they implicate the European Union and NATO in the aggression against Yemen, there will be a big battle, and we will not be able to If we differentiate between warships at sea, the situation will be complicated and international navigation will be completely affected.”

He explained, "We did not close the Red Sea, but the Americans were the ones who militarized it, and when their aggression against Yemen began, they asked the world's ships to stay away from Bab al-Mandab and head to the Cape of Good Hope."

In response to a question regarding the possibility of stopping the escalation in the Red Sea if an agreement is reached to stop the aggression against Gaza, the military expert considered that Yemen’s decision was clear, which is to prevent Israeli ships from passing through the Red Sea until food and medicine enter the Gaza Strip and stop the aggression against the Palestinian people.

Yemeni revenge

But he pointed out that the Americans and the British were involved in the aggression against Yemen, and said, "We have revenge with them after they shed the blood of the Yemenis, killing 10 soldiers in the Red Sea and 5 on land, and wounding others when they bombed Yemeni territory."

Regarding whether Yemeni revenge will cause a major war with the Americans and the British, Major General Ghorab stressed that “Yemeni blood is not cheap, and the Americans must pay the price, and in our culture we do not accept injustice or oppression and arrogance being practiced against us, and the blood of the martyrs will not be in vain.”

He added, "If the war expands and the American-British aggression against Yemen continues, its nose will sink into the dirt and into the sea. We have high-tech weapons capable of reaching distant targets."

Major General Ghorab continued, “We have been trained in wars and various forms of combat engagement, and our forces were built on the basis that the enemy controls the air, and therefore our forces are considered incomplete and they will not be able to reach them. The missile force, both its strategic and naval parts, was also built on the basis that the enemy controls the air and sea, while our missiles It starts from the entire geography of Yemen, and we have a wide scope for concealment, which we have become skilled at, and the enemy will not be able to reach its goals and destroy our missile capabilities.”

Low probability

For his part, military expert Brigadier General Abdul Ghani Al-Zubaidi said, "There is a weak possibility of occupying Yemen's coastal strip in the Red Sea." The escalation of American-British targeting was considered more of a retaliatory operation than a specific one, as the strikes on Sanaa and other governorates targeted camps and bases that had been bombed dozens of times during the past nine years.

Regarding whether the United States and Britain supported the government forces to move towards Hodeidah and control the coastal strip, Al-Zubaidi told Al Jazeera Net that the Yemeni forces know that they are supported by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and therefore they are not subject to the American decision regarding any ground movement towards the ports of Hodeidah and the rest of the coast on the Red Sea. .

Brigadier General Al-Zubaidi: The American-British targeting of the Yemeni coasts are retaliatory operations (social networking sites)

Logistical support

On the other hand, naval military expert Dr. Ali Al-Dhahab believes that “all possibilities are possible,” but not with the concept of foreign occupation, but rather with logistical support for the Yemeni government forces to resume operations towards the areas controlled by the Houthis on the Red Sea coast, “which have become a threat to the interests of major countries.” ".

Al-Dhahab told Al-Jazeera Net that global concern is not about the Houthis and the threat they have committed to international navigation, but rather about Iran's entry into the Red Sea and its presence in it through the Houthi group, which will constitute a serious threat to the interests of America and the West.

If the Houthis do not comply with the demands of America and Britain to stop targeting ships in the Red Sea, “it seems that the scenario of controlling the Yemeni coast will be the inevitable decision if America and Britain want to remove the Houthi threat,” according to Al-Dhahab.

But he said, “This will be through logistical support for government forces, especially those in the port of Midi and the Haradh and Hiran regions of Hajjah Governorate, north of Hodeidah Governorate, and also the joint forces in its south, present in the port of Al-Mokha and the Al-Khawkhah and Hays regions, which surrounded the city of Hodeidah in 2018, and entered some of its neighborhoods.” It almost controlled its main port.

The Alborz combat destroyer crosses the Bab al-Mandab Strait to settle in the Red Sea (Iranian press)

Green light

Military expert Ali Al-Dhahab believes that government forces will move to control Hodeidah and the Yemeni coast on the Red Sea if they are given the green light and the necessary capabilities.

He pointed out that the Houthis were exhausted during the last period, and their missile and drone capabilities, whether offensive or defensive, were exhausted, and their areas and sources of threat were struck, and then the balance of power was disturbed, and if they continue their operations against the ships, they will become weaker, and their capabilities will be depleted as long as the second party - which is the government forces - He has not fired a single bullet yet, and he may receive unparalleled support from the American and British forces, especially in terms of air support.

The military expert pointed out the importance of the Yemeni coasts on the Red Sea to the Houthis, as they are:

• First: an important source for the diversion of weapons, especially missiles and drones, to them.

• Secondly: The ports, especially Al-Hudaydah, Al-Salif, and Ras Issa, generate large financial revenues for them, strengthen their military treasury, and strengthen their economic position and societal control.

Source: Al Jazeera