An escalation of attacks by Al-Fatah Al-Mubin factions on Syrian regime sites in the recent period (Al-Jazeera)

Idlib -

 The "Al-Fatah Al-Mubin" operations room, which includes factions of the Syrian opposition in northern Syria, has recently intensified its lightning operations against members of the Syrian regime and its allies on the fronts of the Idlib and Aleppo countryside.

According to statistics obtained by Al Jazeera Net, the Al-Fath Al-Mubin Operations Room launched 25 immersion operations against regime forces, on various fronts, during the past months, leaving 226 dead and dozens wounded.

Attrition tactic

Abdul Rahman Al-Shami, a military commander in the Al-Fath Al-Mubin operations room, said, “These operations are a tactic used by the opposition factions with the primary aim of exhausting the enemy, striking his morale, and using them as a weapon of deterrence against massacres against people in northern Syria, in addition to being a mechanism.” Effective for gathering information and deep reconnaissance,” he pointed out, “This does not mean the end of the classic war, as there is ongoing preparation to fight the liberation battle, which will open possibilities and options to liberate the entire Syrian territory.”

Regarding the relationship between the recent escalation and the “Astana” meetings, Al-Shami added, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, that “the regime, as usual, tries before the meetings to work to prove its presence and put pressure on influential countries, so that decisions are taken that are in its favor through threats and pressure to launch a military operation or deport people.” Turkey and other justifications, and we on the ground as a military force do not care about these meetings, as they did not bring anything to the Syrians during the years of the revolution except promises and empty talk.”

Regarding the participation of the Al-Fath Al-Mubin Operations Room in these meetings, Al-Shami said, “We previously stated that we are not concerned with these conferences that do not represent the Al-Fath Al-Mubin Operations Room.”

Military Commander Abdul Rahman Al-Shami: Operations "Al-Fath Al-Mubin" is a tactic aimed at exhausting the enemy (Al-Jazeera)

The solution is far away

The same military commander added, "The political solution is very far away in light of Bashar al-Assad's adherence to power and his refusal to make any concessions after all these crimes. The political solution does not meet the aspirations of the Syrian people who sacrificed for more than a decade. So how are we supposed to endorse paths that fail the Syrians, when we are the ones who sacrificed for more than a decade?" We took it upon ourselves to rid the Syrians of this ruling junta, and to build a free and independent Syria far from the remnants of the Baath Party, the Assad family, and abhorrent sectarianism.”

The same spokesman continued, "We monitor what happens and what results from those meetings, but that does not concern us in anything. We have our work and our goals, and we have people's trust in us, and we know very well where to put our feet, and where we should be and when. The decision is in our hands, not in the hands of any external parties."

Observers believe that the attacks and military operations between the factions and the regime forces have caused ground attacks between the two parties after a 3-year lull, while others believe that these attacks do not exceed the limits of the Turkish-Russian agreement signed on March 5, 2020.

In this context, Brigadier General Mohammed Al-Khaled, who defected from the Syrian regime forces, considers that “the lightning operations are a limited response by the Syrian opposition in the north of the country, due to their inability to launch large-scale ground attacks to regain control over the areas that the Syrian regime controlled during the 2019 attack, due to the existence of an agreement.” Prevents attacks by either party.

Limited response

Al-Khaled added, in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, that the so-called inghimasi attacks achieve very good results, as they cause losses among the regime forces without any losses among the attacking party, and the regime’s elements also remain in a state of constant alert.

He pointed out in the same interview that “these attacks will remain within a limited framework that does not exceed attacks against specific areas on the front lines, because there is an international consensus to keep the situation in Idlib calm without widespread military attacks from any party, especially since the Turkish-Russian influence on the regime and opposition areas "He became more in control."

At the end of last month, violent battles broke out between the opposition factions (Al-Fath Al-Mubin Operations Room) and the Syrian regime forces and fighters loyal to it, following an attempt by regime elements to infiltrate the contact lines in the region.

The "Amjad Foundation" affiliated with "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" - which operates within the Al-Fath Al-Mubin operations room in northern Syria - announced that forces from the Syrian regime and Lebanese Hezbollah were subjected to a precise ambush after they attempted to infiltrate the Tallet al-Malik axis in the northern countryside of Latakia.

For his part, military expert Colonel Ahmed Al-Farhat expects that these operations will not be strategic, and will be followed by broader attacks between the two parties, because the rules of engagement may change during the coming months, especially since the guarantor parties have not yet agreed on the Idlib file.

He added, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, that the regime escalated the bombing before the Astana meeting, and the opposition also escalated the bombing and military attack on regime sites, in order to gain cards for negotiation, as both parties, Russia and Turkey, need strong cards on the table, and this cannot be done. It can only be achieved by imposing military force on the ground.

The military expert pointed out that the Russian-Turkish agreement to calm the situation in Idlib is under threat, explaining that the opposition and the regime have been preparing for years for the return of battles in the north of the country.

According to Al-Farhat, the opposition aims to restore the Sochi Agreement areas up to the Morek area in the Hama countryside, which the regime took control of by force, while the regime wants to control even the Bab al-Hawa area on the border with Turkey.

These attacks coincided with the conclusion of the 21st international meeting on Syria, in the Kazakh capital, Astana, which was held over two days with the participation of delegations of the guarantor countries - Russia, Turkey, and Iran - and delegations of the regime and the opposition in Syria.

The final statement of the international meeting stipulated that the guarantor countries renewed their firm commitment to Syria’s sovereignty, independence, unity, and territorial integrity, and to the goals and principles of the United Nations Charter.

Military expert Ahmed Al-Farhat: These operations will not be strategic and will be followed by broader attacks between the two parties (Al-Jazeera)

De-escalation

On the other hand, the principal researcher at the Jusoor Center for Studies, Wael Alwan, considered that the escalation between the opposition areas and the regime in Idlib is governed by de-escalation, not by a ceasefire, considering that the de-escalation is the result of stable agreements since March 2020.

Alwan expected that the region would remain stable, with the possibility of a violation of a mutual ceasefire between the opposition and the regime due to many factors, including field factors and political ones linked to the guarantor parties, Russia, Iran, and Turkey.

The same researcher expected that the opposition areas and the de-escalation in Idlib would be affected by the Turkish escalation against the separatist groups in northeastern Syria, if Russia wanted to exert some pressure for negotiations regarding the general situation in which it intervenes in northeastern Syria, explaining that the future of the Syrian opposition does not seem to be affected. With the current Astana meeting, Idlib, northern Aleppo, Tal Abyad, and Ras al-Ain are relatively stable areas under the control of the opposition.

He pointed out in his speech that there is a regional and international understanding that there will be no more cases of internal displacement, and this matter is one of the main goals of Turkey, which it and the rest of the regional parties have agreed upon since March 2020. Therefore, the “Astana” meeting comes within a series of keeping this path open and keeping the discussion on Field matters in Syria are on the table among the guarantors of Astana.

Alwan explained, "Usually escalation through bombing or ground operations comes for various reasons. The regime usually goes for escalation before Astana in order to move the discussion and negotiation table, because one of Turkey's main goals is to maintain stability and stop escalation. Therefore, the regime and Russia take the initiative for such warming up of the situation." In order to reach an understanding so that one of the outcomes of Astana is for Russia to commit to reducing the escalation in Idlib in exchange for political gains, the most important of which is the stability witnessed in Syria.”

Source: Al Jazeera