[Commentary] Ask Associate Professor Yu Koizumi about the reason for the close relationship between Russia and North Korea

Russian President Vladimir Putin greeted North Korean Foreign Minister Choe So-ni, who was visiting Moscow, with a big smile.

Russia and North Korea are further expanding their cooperation.

Russia continues to invade Ukraine, while North Korea has continued to make military threats by repeatedly shelling and launching ballistic missiles since the beginning of the year.

What impact will the close relationship between Russia and North Korea have on the security of Asia, including Japan?

We spoke to Associate Professor Yu Koizumi of the University of Tokyo's Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, who is an expert on military affairs.

*This is the content that was broadcast on "News Watch 9" on January 17th.

*The video is 6 minutes 46 seconds long and cannot be viewed on data broadcasting.

North Korean Foreign Minister and President Putin meet “Discussions including military cooperation”

A video released on the 17th captured North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-i after the meeting.

Foreign Minister Choi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin on the 16th.

Foreign Minister Choi was also accompanied by the Director of the Munitions Industry Department of the Workers' Party of Korea, who directs North Korea's weapons development.

He is also believed to have made arrangements for President Putin's first visit to North Korea in 24 years.

Russian Presidential Spokesman Peskov indicated on the 17th that discussions had taken place, including military cooperation.

It has also been pointed out that Russia is using ballistic missiles provided by North Korea in its invasion of Ukraine, and both countries are expanding cooperation with the United States and other countries in mind, with whom they are at odds.

Yu Koizumi, an expert on the military situation regarding Russia and North Korea, points out that the relationship between the two countries is deeper than ever.

Yu Koizumi, Associate Professor, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo

: ``Since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, it has become clear that Russia has become a very important artillery shell, especially for countries that are friendly with each other, saying that their backs are irreplaceable.'' We have no choice but to be friends with any country that sends us missiles.North Korea, a country that can produce large quantities of former Soviet Union standard artillery shells and stockpiles them, is stepping in to provide military support to Russia. I think that the Russian side is very grateful for the support they have given us.It seems that the Russian side is also sending a considerable amount of civilian goods in return.Therefore, since the Putin administration was inaugurated, the Russian side is the most grateful. I think it can be said that this was a period when relations between Japan and North Korea became closer."

North Korea shows a series of provocative moves

Meanwhile, North Korea has been making a series of provocative moves since the beginning of this year.

Since the beginning of the year, the North Korean military has repeatedly conducted artillery shelling on the western coast of the Korean peninsula, near the border with South Korea.

They also claimed to have carried out a ``deception operation'' in which they detonated explosives by feigning the sound of gunfire.

At one point, residents of South Korea's Yongpyeong Island (Yeonpyeong Island) in the Yellow Sea were evacuated.

Furthermore, on the 14th of this month, North Korea conducted a test launch of a solid-fuel medium-range ballistic missile.

It appears that the aim is to improve surprise attack capabilities by replacing conventional liquid-fueled missiles with solid-fueled ones that can be launched more quickly.

At the Supreme People's Assembly held on the 15th, General Secretary Kim ordered an amendment to the constitution to classify South Korea as the "number one enemy nation."

``We are in a unique environment where our greatest enemy, South Korea, is next door, and military tensions led by the U.S. military are intensifying, and the risk of war escalating through physical conflict has increased significantly.''

In response, South Korean President Yoon Sung-ryul expressed his intention to take a strong stance against North Korea's provocations.

He said, ``We have acknowledged that the North Korean government is an anti-national and anti-historic group.If the North provokes us, we will punish them many times over.''

Experts have pointed out that the current international situation is "in an unstable state."

He points out that the reason behind this is the decline in America's deterrence power.

Yu Koizumi, Associate Professor, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo

: ``The United States is still forced to devote considerable resources to protecting Europe from Russia.I wonder how this will be viewed by China, North Korea, and other powers. I don't think it's a good sign for the security of East Asian countries.Since the resources that the United States can allocate are limited, to what extent can America's allies and friends in East Asia shoulder the burden? I think it will be a question of how far we can go in terms of cooperation, whether we will do so or not, and how far cooperation can go."

Analysis says the situation on the Korean Peninsula is ``more dangerous than in 1950''

South Korean intelligence agencies are increasing their vigilance as there is a high possibility that North Korea will launch a military provocation ahead of the South Korean general election in April.

Against this backdrop, an American research group called ``38 North'' released such an analytical report last week.

The title reads, "Is Kim Jong Un preparing for war?"

Looking at it, it shows that the recent situation on the Korean Peninsula is ``more dangerous than the situation in 1950,'' when the Korean War broke out.

The article then introduces the analysis that Kim ``made a strategic decision in preparation for war.''

The basis for this is that, while relations with the United States are deteriorating, North Korea considers the fact that relations with Russia are strengthening, especially in the military field, to be advantageous for itself.

Of course, there is some debate over this view, but it seems necessary to take a close look at developments involving Russia, North Korea, and even China to avoid military miscalculations.