Global unemployment rate reached 5.1% in 2023 and is expected to rise in 2024 (European)
In a recent real-life assessment of the global labour market, the International Labour Organization (ILO) has warned of an imminent rise in global unemployment for 2024. While the initial post-pandemic recovery has shown relative resilience, the ILO's World Employment and Social Outlook Report on New Year's Trends reveals latent fragility, with rising social inequalities and stagnant productivity raising significant concerns.
The report, released in Geneva, highlights the delicate challenges that threaten to undermine prospects for greater social justice, raising questions about the trajectory of the global workforce.
Resilience amid challenges
The report, a copy of which was seen by Al Jazeera Net, highlights the relative resilience shown by labor markets despite deteriorating economic conditions. Both the unemployment rate and the job gap rate have fallen below pre-pandemic levels, reaching 5.1% in 2023, a slight improvement from 5.3% in 2022. However, the report warns that these positive figures mask fragility that could exacerbate labor market outlook and rise global unemployment in 2024.
More inequality
The report predicts that in 2024, an additional 5 million workers will look for jobs, raising the global unemployment rate from 1.2023 percent in 5 to 2.20 percent in the new year. Driven by declining disposable income in the majority of G<> countries, the erosion of living standards due to inflation is unlikely to be quickly offset.
Significant disparities remain between high-income and low-income countries, with high job gaps and unemployment rates in the latter countries, according to the report.
Report notes that disparities in labour market participation rates persist in many sectors (French)
The report notes that although the number of working poor decreased after 2020, the number of workers living in extreme poverty increased by about one million in 2023. Income inequality has widened, raising concerns about its impact on aggregate demand and a sustainable economic recovery.
The ILO has predicted that informal employment rates will remain constant, accounting for around 58 per cent of the global workforce in 2024.
Labour market imbalances
While labour market participation rates have returned to pre-pandemic levels for some sectors, the report notes that inequalities persist in many sectors.
As for women's participation in work, the report documents a rapid recovery in women's participation after a decline due to the pandemic, but the report notes the marked gender gap that still exists, especially in emerging and developing countries. Unemployment rates among young people and marginalized groups pose challenges to long-term employment opportunities, especially for young women.
The report also reveals that those who return to the labor market after the pandemic are working fewer hours than before, and the number of sick leaves has increased significantly.
Productivity stagnates
Despite the brief post-pandemic recovery, labor productivity has returned to its low levels in the past decade. The report identifies barriers to productivity growth, including investment directed at less productive sectors, skills shortages, and the dominance of large digital monopolies that hinder technology adoption.
ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Ingbo expressed deep concern over the report's findings, noting that the imbalances identified in the report may not be temporary recovery issues but structural challenges.
Ungbo notes that the expected impacts are far-reaching, posing threats to the livelihoods of individuals and businesses. Low living standards, poor productivity and persistent inflation create conditions for further inequalities between people, undermining efforts to achieve social justice.
Source : Al Jazeera