LUCAS DE LA CALCaidei Correspondent

Taipei Correspondent

Updated Monday,15January2024 - 15:26

  • Profile From the Mining Basin to Taiwan's Presidency: Lai Ching-Te, the Doctor Who Promises to Be a Barrier Against China
  • Profile Tsai Ing-wen, the legacy of Taiwan's 'lady with the iron cat'
  • Asia-Pacific: Why Taiwan's Elections Could Set the Global Geopolitical Agenda in the Coming Years

Presidential elections in Taiwan. The sovereigntist party, the one that China did not want, the friend of the United States, wins. The authoritarian neighbor says that no matter how much of a "separatist troublemaker" he rules, the rebel island is a non-negotiable part of his territory. The ally from across the pond sends its congratulations to Taipei along with a bipartisan delegation of former senior officials. They say that the trip is in a personal capacity, but it is an old move by Washington as a gesture of commitment to maintain diplomatic relations (unofficial, which is why former officials always go) and, incidentally, to poke Beijing, which responds by hardening its rhetoric and resorting to the usual threats.

In their first clash of the year, the two superpowers are back to play cat-and-dog around Taiwan. Following Lai Ching-te's victory at the polls, a spokesperson for the US State Department congratulated the Taiwanese people for "demonstrating once again the strength of their strong democratic system and electoral process."

This statement, for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, is a "serious violation of U.S. promises that it would only maintain cultural, economic and other unofficial ties with Taiwan."

The harshest intervention came late Sunday from Cairo, where Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is traveling, warning that any initiative in favor of Taiwan independence will be "harshly punished."

The Chinese minister, who was inEgypt to meet with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and press the international community for a major peace conference to help resolve the war in Gaza, said Taiwan has "never" been a country and "never will be."

"No matter what the election results are, they can't change the fact that there is only one China and Taiwan is part of it," Wang reiterated shortly after a U.S. delegation landed in Taipei that included, among the most relevant figures, Stephen Hadley, national security adviser during the George Bush administration. and James Steinberg, deputy secretary of state during the Obama administration.

"The U.S. commitment to Taiwan is rock solid. Taiwan's democracy has set a shining example to the world," Hadley said Monday during a meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen, who will remain in office until her vice president and election winner takes up the baton in mid-May.

Until Washington sent its congratulations after the victory of Lai's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), state media in China practically avoided publishing any news about the elections.

On Monday, the Global Times newspaper quoted several Chinese academics as railing against Washington's support for Taipei, warning that if the new Taiwanese leader crosses the red line, Beijing "will have the strength and determination to resolve the Taiwan question once and for all."

"The visit by former U.S. officials again reveals the usual U.S. leniency toward Taiwan secessionists," said Li Haidong, a professor at China Foreign Affairs University.

Another scholar at Xiamen University, Zhang Wensheng, stresses that relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are unlikely to be smooth and stable in the future, as Lai could try to take another step towards the island's independence. "If Lai continues with the provocation, the mainland will surely increase pressure on the economic, military and diplomatic fronts," Zhang said.

In addition to the U.S., the United Kingdom, the European Union, Japan and Canada also congratulated Lai for winning the election with more than 40% of the vote. "The result has been a testament to Taiwan's vibrant democracy," said U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron, who drew a rebuke from the Chinese embassy in London, which urged the British government "not to interfere in China's internal affairs."

But in the aftermath of Taiwan's elections, in addition to congratulations on the DPP's third consecutive term, the Taiwanese government took a diplomatic blow after one of the few nations still backing the island's sovereignty, Nauru (a tiny state in Micronesia), broke with Taipei to establish diplomatic relations with China.

Since the PDP came to power with Tsai at the helm in 2016, a dozen countries have already severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan, persuaded in large part by succulent Chinese financing projects. Lai's new government will start with only 12 official diplomatic allies.