Al-Hamidiya market in Damascus is witnessing a vacuum like most markets in the Syrian capital (Al-Jazeera)

Turkish writer Serhan Arkman says that there are no concrete indications that this year will pass in Syria like previous years, and predicted that the internal and external factors that led to the relative calm previously will change to be replaced by new dynamics.

Arkman explained – in a report published by the Turkish website "Fikrtoru" – that "despite the return of Syria from the brink of division, the situation has not yet stabilized."

The cost of the war in Syria has exceeded $1.2 trillion. It would require a low-resource country like Syria to wait at least 20 years to return to the prewar economy.

The economic situation would worsen, especially in regime-controlled areas, because the main cause of internal migration was no longer security, but the deterioration of the economy. The impact of the economic problem is not limited to Damascus and its surroundings, but there is a very bleak picture across the country of low wages, very high prices, and no investment or employment.

He explained that the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has been one of the most important actors in preventing famine in Syria and an even greater catastrophe.

The number of people with problems in accessing food in Syria is 12.9 million, and the number of people at risk of famine is 2.6 million, WFP said, adding that WFP, which has provided food to 5.6 million people in 14 Syrian governorates, will stop distributing these items in 2024 due to lack of funding.

They will have to flee to Turkey

According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), those living in the camps are expected to face a major food problem from January, and hundreds of thousands of people will have to move elsewhere, especially Turkey, to survive. Setting aside internal displacement, one of the most likely routes for population movement is inevitably Turkey.

Idlib may be affected in 2024 not only by pressure exerted by Damascus but also by the new situation that Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham faces while consolidating its power, and that the steps taken by HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani to consolidate his power made him much stronger than before, but he was not satisfied with that and engaged in successive military operations to seize opposition-held areas such as Afrin, Jarablus, Azaz, and Kobani.

Arkman added that HTS had made the same mistake that Islamic State, the PKK and Jabhat al-Nusra made in the past: excessive expansion.

The problems faced by HTS are: artillery shelling by Damascus on Idlib, cutting off food supplies to Syria, and internal conflicts in HTS, he said, adding that this situation creates an opportunity for the Syrian regime to turn the scales in Idlib at a much lower cost than launching a military operation with thousands of troops.

Turkish-Syrian Relations

On Syrian-Turkish relations, Arkman said that they may be on the agenda again, and dealing with the PKK and its Syrian branch the Democratic Union will be the subject of these relations, adding that the threats Damascus will feel from the PYD will increase in 2024.

Arkman pointed out that the Syrian regime will realize that it will not receive support from Iran because of its confrontation with America and Israel in Lebanon and Iraq, and will have to rely on the only actor capable of cooperating with it in facing common challenges: Turkey.

Source : Turkish Press