In the American political sky, she is the rising star of the Republicans. Her name: Nikki Haley. A former ambassador to the United Nations, the candidate is increasingly emerging as Donald Trump's main rival, two weeks before the start of the primaries.

In the polls, the former governor of South Carolina is now credited with 11% of voting intentions, according to the website FiveThirtyEight, which offers a summary of national surveys. Still a long way from Donald Trump's 61.2%, she is benefiting from the drop in popularity of Ron DeSantis. The Florida governor, long considered the former president's only serious challenger, is due to win 11.7% of the vote.

She "stood out" during the Republican debates

Nikki Haley can boast a rich political background. First as a representative of South Carolina (2005-2011), she then governed that state for six years before serving as U.S. ambassador to the UN for nearly two years (2017-2018), under President Donald Trump. The latter praised his "fantastic work" after his resignation.

When she announced in February that she was running for the White House, Nikki Haley was seen as an "outsider" by voters and the media. His campaign got off to a rocky start, hampered by competition from South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who shared his support. But a few months ago, the start of debate season, which Trump continues to shunn, changed that.

"Nikki Haley was able to stand out from the other Republican candidates during the debates, being perceived as more moderate than Donald Trump," said Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy, a lecturer at Sciences-Po Saint-Germain-en-Laye and a specialist in the United States. "She also has a lot of experience in international relations gained during her time at the UN, which gives her an edge over her rivals. She hopes to win the votes of moderate Republicans, and those who are afraid Trump will lose."

Within an increasingly conservative Republican Party, Nikki Haley has relied on her Sikh origins and her age (51) to give herself an image of diversity and modernity. Pro-gun and anti-union, she stands out thanks to a more measured speech than her rivals, particularly on abortion. Since the beginning of her campaign, she has been sparing in her attacks on her former mentor Donald Trump, who is mired in court cases and excluded from the primaries in Maine and Colorado. She fears offending her electoral base, which is still very loyal to the former president.

Read alsoRepublican primaries: Nikki Haley, establishment candidate without disowning Trump

A strategy that seems to be working: in a few weeks it has risen from 4% to 10% in the polls. The other candidates, who now see her as a serious threat, attacked her sharply during the last debate in December.

The New Hampshire and Iowa Test

For several weeks now, Nikki Haley's supporters have been multiplying. Prominent Democratic donors, concerned about Donald Trump's increasingly authoritarian rhetoric, are urging Democratic and independent voters to vote for her in open Republican primaries.

In a country where political campaigns are won with billions of dollars, Nikki Haley was able to count on the support of James Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, but also of Reid Hoffman – the co-founder of LinkedIn gave $250,000 to a "Super PAC" (political support committee in charge of raising campaign funds) to support her candidacy.

"The main question is whether Nikki Haley will be able to create electoral momentum," Viala-Gaudefroy said. "If she does well in New Hampshire or Iowa, it could bring her closer to Donald Trump. She won't necessarily beat him, but it could give him a new impetus."

All eyes are, in fact, on these two states, the first two stages of the Republican race. In New Hampshire, where the primaries will take place on 23 January, the candidate has narrowed the gap with Donald Trump: she won 25.7% of voting intentions on 28 December, against 44.1% for the former president of the United States. New Hampshire is often decisive in the race for the White House. It can push weaker candidates to drop out or revive campaigns that are off to a bad start.

Ambiguous language

But Nikki Haley's political gaffe during a televised debate could hurt her. Asked to speak about slavery during an exchange with voters on December 27, she preferred to focus on the excesses of the government and on individual freedoms. She dodged the question, causing the interviewer to become irritated. "Well, that's an easy question," she joked. "What do you want me to say about slavery? Next question."

It was about slavery. https://t.co/q9bTDvtPne

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) December 28, 2023

She tried to backpedal the next day on a local radio station, but her response — "Of course the Civil War was related to slavery, we all know that" — was deemed unsatisfactory by many observers. "This sequence is interesting because it allows us to see how she handles such a crisis," notes Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy. "In this case, badly. That could hurt him with the few black Republican voters and moderates."

Even though Nikki Haley is on the rise in the polls, her trajectory remains very uncertain. "For her to win, the polls would have to be wrong, or voters would have to change their minds radically," Viala-Gaudefroy said. "Nikki Haley is an interesting candidate, but it's important to remain cautious despite the hype she's generating in the media."

On the other hand, his chances of beating Joe Biden would be real. A poll conducted in six swing states – key states likely to vote for one party or the other – and published by the New York Times in early November showed that Nikki Haley would lead in each of them against the Democratic president. An even clearer lead than in the case of a Biden-Trump duel. Nikki Haley hasn't said her last word.

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