Cheaper fuel was one of the Tidö parties' most important promises during the 2022 election campaign. There was talk of five or six kronor cheaper gasoline and up to ten kronor cheaper diesel.
Now, after the turn of the year, the fuel tax is being reduced and so is the reduction obligation. Therefore, SVT asked Christian Kopfer, commodity analyst at Handelsbanken, to calculate what the cost of gasoline and diesel is expected to be in January.
"My calculations show that diesel prices will go down significantly more, somewhere between four and five kronor. While there will be a much smaller decline in gasoline, just under a penny," says Christian Kopfer.
Leads to more emissions
The reduction obligation was the previous government's most important instrument for reducing emissions from traffic in Sweden. This means that petrol and diesel must be blended with biofuel.
After the turn of the year, the reduction obligation will be 6 per cent in both petrol and diesel – from the previous 7.8 per cent in petrol and 30.5 per cent in diesel.
According to the government, it will increase emissions by just over 4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide next year, and the reduced fuel tax by about 350,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide further.
Rising prices in 2024
Although it is predicted to become cheaper to fill up the car after the New Year, commodity analyst Christian Kopfer believes that the price of fuel will rise again.
"It depends very much on what happens to the Swedish krona, of course, but if we look at the underlying commodity market, we expect gradually increasing fuel prices in 2024 because we believe in higher oil prices," says Christian Kopfer.
The reasons for rising oil prices, according to Christian Kopfer, are partly that the world consumes more oil and partly that there is less competition in the oil market. A few operators can therefore control the price.
So how long will the price cut last?
"It's very difficult to say exactly, but it will go quite quickly for petrol, because the reduction is significantly smaller there and longer for diesel because the reduction is noticeable there.