Immigration law: was the text adopted thanks to the votes of the National Rally?

Romain Rouillard / Photo credit: Ludovic MARIN / AFP 16:56 p.m., December 20, 2023

As soon as the immigration law was passed by the National Assembly, the subject was addressed by Gérald Darmanin. The Minister of the Interior welcomed the adoption of a "strong text", obtained "without the votes of the RN deputies". Because this is where the malaise that has been running through the majority troops since Tuesday night lies. While the presidential camp appeared to be very divided around a text that was tougher than its initial version and included several provisions desired by the right, all 88 RN deputies voted for it as one.

Shortly before the verdict, Emmanuel Macron even considered asking for a second parliamentary deliberation in the event that the law was adopted thanks to the votes provided by the far right. This is allowed by Article 10 of the Constitution. But what is the real situation?

Two Mathematically Valid Interpretations

For Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the entire left, there is no doubt about it. The bill could never have been passed without Marine Le Pen's troops. "Sickening victory. 349 for the law. Without the RN's 88 votes = 261, i.e. less than the absolute majority! After the joint march of November 12, here is the law voted and written together. A new political axis has been put in place," the rebellious leader tweeted on Tuesday evening. The interpretation is logically identical among the RN elected representatives. "If the RN had voted against it, the law would not have passed. Thank whom?" declared MP Laurent Jacobelli on X, in response to Gérald Darmanin's publication.

Sickening victory. 349 for the law. Without the RN's 88 votes = 261, i.e. less than the absolute majority! After the joint march of November 12, here is the law voted and written together. A new political axis has been put in place. pic.twitter.com/oxoqBUBqR2

— Jean-Luc Mélenchon (@JLMelenchon) December 19, 2023

Come on, come on, panic is derailing you, Mr. Future Ex-Minister. The figures are public. If the RN had voted against it, the law would not pass. Thank whom?

— Laurent Jacobelli (M)️ (@ljacobelli) December 20, 2023

Let's get out the calculators. The bill was passed with 349 votes in favor and 186 against, out of 573 voters, with an absolute majority set at 289 votes. If the RN group and its 88 members had voted against, the text would have been mathematically rejected since it would have received only 261 votes in favour and 274 against. On the other hand, if the elected representatives led by Marine Le Pen had chosen to abstain, the immigration law would still have been adopted, because the minimum threshold of votes to obtain an absolute majority would have automatically decreased. Thus, without counting the 88 votes of the RN, the number of voters is down to 489 with an absolute majority set at 245 votes. This is therefore less than the 261 votes in favour that the text would have compiled, without Marine Le Pen's flock.

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Thus, looking only at the mathematical prism, both sides are telling the truth and the situation can indeed be interpreted in two distinct ways.