Ukraine: political tensions amid crumbling Western support and Russian assaults in Donbas
The Russian army continues its assaults on Avdiivka, in the Donbass. It is in the process of encircling this industrial city near Donetsk. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a defensive position on almost the entire front. Kyiv recently acknowledged the failure of its counteroffensive launched in the summer, amid uncertainties over continued Western support. In this context, divisions are beginning to emerge within the Ukrainian political class.
Volodymyr Zelensky, in Kyiv, November 25, 2023. Global Images Ukraine via Getty - Global Images Ukraine
By: Anastasia Becchio
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The sacred union observed since the beginning of the war is beginning to crack. The public debate, which has been very discreet since February 24, 2022, is regaining momentum, at a time when the Ukrainian army is treading water in its counteroffensive. Even though President Zelensky has ruled out holding elections in the near future, the political games have resumed. Spears are flying at both the opposition and the government. "It is no longer with sadness, but with horror that I look at what has been happening in our politics lately. It's a kind of epidemic of internal conflict that is only getting worse," notes Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, director of the Penta Center.
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko criticizes Ukrainian leader
One of the most vocal criticisms came from the mayor of Kiev, who is said to have presidential ambitions. Writing in the German newspaper Der Spiegel, Vitali Klitschko argues that Ukraine is heading towards authoritarianism and that it may cease to be different from Russia, where "everything depends on the whims of one person."
Late last week, former President Petro Poroshenko, now an opposition MP, was barred from leaving Ukraine to attend a series of meetings, including, allegedly, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The Ukrainian security services saw this as a risk of "instrumentalisation by the Russians". According to them, Moscow intended to use a meeting between Petro Poroshenko and Viktor Orban, accused of being "anti-Ukrainian". "War fatigue is making itself felt, and it is reflected in these questions within society: who is responsible for the situation? Why did the counteroffensive fail? Politicians sensed that there was discontent in society and this led them to criticize the president more and more," Fesenko said.
See alsoUkraine: the counter-offensive put to the test
Zelensky-Zaluzhny dissension
The question of who is responsible for the failure of the counteroffensive has also reignited the opposition between the country's two most popular men, President Zelensky, and General Valery Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces. Last week, The Economist, citing a senior Ukrainian source, said relations between the two men were "abysmal". The online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda devotes an article to their falling out. He says that Volodymyr Zelensky created parallel lines of communication with the commanders of the ground forces Oleksandr Syrskyi and the air force Mykola Oleschuk, bypassing General Zaluzhny. Moreover, the latter was not informed of the government's decision to dismiss General Viktor Khorenko, head of the special forces, and learned about it in the press.
Rumours of a falling out between the head of state and the general have been circulating since the spring of 2022, but the crisis has reportedly intensified since Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin's visit to Kyiv two weeks ago. The presidential administration did not take kindly to the high-ranking officer's statements to U, where he acknowledged that the counteroffensive was at a stalemate and that the war could last for years. In an interview with the British tabloid The Sun, Volodymyr Zelensky warned the top officer: "With all the respect I have for General Zaluzhny and for all commanders on the battlefield (...), there is only one hierarchy, according to the law, and in times of war you can't even discuss it."
Read alsoUkraine: the commander-in-chief of the armed forces fears that Kiev's counteroffensive will get bogged down
Zelensky's presidential election dilemma
In this context of tensions, could the removal of the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army be on the agenda? President Zelensky may not lack the desire, but it does come with political risks. "If he were ousted, he would become the main alternative to Zelensky," says political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko. The military, which is currently absent from the political game, "could then be pushed into politics and would be able to aggregate the opposition forces. In this situation, Zelensky would have a real and very powerful competitor."
According to a poll conducted in November by the Kiev Rating Group, in the second round of the presidential election, Volodymyr Zelensky is due to win 42% of the vote, against 40% for Valery Zaluzhny. In the same survey, 82% of respondents said they trusted the army chief, while the president won only 72% of the vote.
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