Europe 1 14:42 p.m., November 30, 2023

After successive declines in the first two quarters of 2023, the volume of housing sales continues to fall drastically in Île-de-France. This fall is expected to continue until January 2024 and is accompanied by a decrease in the price per m².

The Ile-de-France real estate market is still struggling in the third quarter of 2023, despite a price per m² that continues to fall. This is what emerges from the study by the Notaires du Grand Paris, which explains in particular that the deterioration of financing conditions for obtaining loans is affecting the market more and more severely. The level of activity is now almost 25% lower than in the last ten years. Since January, the sale of second-hand homes has plummeted significantly compared to the same periods in 2022 with -17% in the 1st quarter, -25% in the second and finally -34% in the third quarter.

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Real estate prices in free fall

In Paris, the price per m² of old apartments fell by 5.3% (Notaires-INSEE indices) in one year to reach 10,090 euros. This decline is expected to continue to reach €9,760 in January 2024, which would bring us back to the price level seen in spring 2019. As a reminder, in November 2020, the recorded price was 10,860 euros.

The same is true for the inner suburbs, where the price of older apartments has also fallen by 5.3% to 6,490 euros per m². A fall that should, once again, continue until January 2024, with worrying forecasts for the market (-7.7%). Houses are also affected by this fall: the 6% annual price drop observed in the 3rd quarter would also become slightly stronger (6.4%) in January 2024.

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Sales volume at an all-time low

Since April 2023, activity has tipped well below its long-term trend, with a decline of 8% below the average Q2 of the last 10 years. A stall that intensified in Q3 2023 with a sales volume that plunged 24% below the average Q3 of the last 10 years. Between October 2022 and September 2023, just under 150,000 old homes were sold in the region, 41,000 fewer homes than the previous year.