It is a party in the tailwind that gathers for national days in Västerås this weekend. The opinion polls are pointing upwards, Jimmie Åkesson (SD) is climbing in the confidence league and the party has not been affected by voters' dissatisfaction with the government.
Because that's how it could have been. In other words, SD would lose voter support when they were forced to compromise and take responsibility for the policies pursued. This was the development the Moderates envisioned when they opened up for broader cooperation with SD in the winter of 2019. And last winter, it looked like they were about to be right.
The important election promise of sharply reduced fuel prices at the pump landed at a few tens of cents in the first Tidö budget. This helped to reduce support for the party and led to frustration internally. Not surprising, given that this is a party that has never had to fulfill any election promises as they have not been involved in governing before.
Again second largest party
But now, after an autumn dominated by an unprecedented wave of violence, SD has regained its position as the second largest party.
The fact that they have linked gang crime and immigration earlier and more clearly than any other party is one explanation. Another is the favourable position that the Tidö Agreement has given the party.
SD can take credit for changes voters like, but put the responsibility on the government if the delivery fails. Even more important is that SD has been able to continue to shape public opinion as if it were an opposition party. Jimmie Åkesson (SD) can, in a completely different way than a minister, think out loud in the media about caging 13-year-olds for life, introducing curfews and detaining people without concrete suspicion of a crime. No wonder if voters perceive it as if it is SD that is driving the government.
Here, the party also gets a good boost from the opposition, which consistently refers to the government as the "SD government".
During the government negotiations after the election, it was claimed that SD's entry point was that they wanted to enter the government. But even then there was reason to doubt how hard the party leadership really pushed that demand. And now, just over a year later, it is clear that the party has benefited from being outside.
Wants to join the government
However, there is a clear downside to the position as a cooperation party, and that is that the party cannot fully control the drawn-out processes in the Government Offices.
SD's most important inquiry, the one on adapting asylum legislation to the EU's minimum level, will not be completed until the autumn of 2025. And unless the subsequent drafting process is accelerated, things like converting permanent residence permits into temporary ones will probably not become a reality until after the election. In that case, SD would meet the voters with a half-baked "paradigm shift" in the election campaign. It is a scenario that stresses a party that has increased in every election.
That is why Jimmie Åkesson (SD) likens the Tidö Agreement to duct tape and sees it as obvious that SD will enter the government if the right-wing side gets a majority in 2026 as well. There is also much to suggest that this is how it would be. If it is between not being allowed to continue governing or letting SD in, the choice is probably quite straightforward for both Ulf Kristersson (M) and Ebba Busch (KD). For Johan Pehrson (L) it would be much trickier.
Recently, SD has taken further steps and signaled that they are aiming for the post of prime minister. How much the party leadership actually believes in that possibility is unclear, but pushing to lead the government gives the party a good starting point in any government negotiations, provided, of course, that SD is larger than M.
Over the years, SD has been accused of many things, but hardly of modest ambitions.