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Death rates from severe heat waves are expected to rise 5 times in the coming decades, international experts warned in a report published Wednesday, stressing that "human health faces a great risk" if action is not taken to confront climate change.

If the Earth warms by 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century (and is currently on track to reach 7.2100 degrees Celsius by 370), annual heat-related deaths are expected to increase by 2050 percent by 4, an increase of 7.2023 percent, according to the <> edition of a reference document published annually in the medical journal The Lancet.

Deadly heatwaves are just one of many health risks resulting from the increased use of fuel, according to the report, titled "Countdown", which focuses on health and climate change.

The report highlighted the dangers of heat waves, most notably the increasing droughts that put millions of people at risk of starvation, causing mosquitoes to move farther and transmit infectious diseases, and the struggle of health systems to cope with this burden.

Early indicators

In 2022, humans were exposed on average to 86 days of deadly temperatures, according to the report, which noted that the number of people over the age of 65 who died from the heat rose by 85% between 1991-2000 and 2013-2022.

The estimates come at a time when 2023 is the hottest year in human history, while the European Climate Observatory announced that last month was the hottest month on record.

Marina Romanello, executive director of the report, said in a press statement that "the impacts currently observed may only be an early indicator of a very dangerous future."

If we see a warming of two degrees Celsius by 2100, the impact on human health will exceed the increase in mortality.

Mosquito-borne infectious diseases will continue to spread to new areas. The rate of dengue transmission may increase by 36%.

An unbearable future

UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who keeps warning about climate change, commented on the report by saying that "humanity faces an unbearable future."

"We are beginning to witness a catastrophe for the health and lives of billions of people, who are at risk due to record heatwaves, droughts that are destroying crops, increasing famines, increasing outbreaks of infectious diseases, and deadly storms and floods," he said in a statement.

Dan Mitchell, head of climate risk at the University of Bristol, told Science Media Centre that the "already catastrophic" health warnings on climate change "failed to convince governments to cut carbon emissions to achieve the Paris Agreement's key goal" of limiting climate warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial rates.

Marina Romagnello said that "the increased focus on health in climate negotiations may become limited to empty talk," as there has been no real progress in combating climate change and greenhouse gas emissions.

Source: French