Text/Hua Dolma
In the past two weeks, the international gold price has risen by more than 8%, and the quotation of domestic gold jewelry has also risen, reaching a maximum of 615 yuan / gram, a new high since 2010.
What is the future trend of gold, is it suitable to "chase" and buy gold now?
The international increase exceeded 8%, and the domestic record high
On October 10, the international gold price remained above $25,1970 an ounce. Despite some volatility, the international gold price rose by more than 8% in two weeks. On Friday, the price of December gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange briefly exceeded $12,2000 intraday.
Domestic Shanghai gold futures also soared, after the long holiday, Shanghai gold futures touched 449.32 yuan per gram, and then turned upward, the highest rose to 479.44 yuan, a stone's throw away from the year's high of 480.26 yuan.
In terms of physical gold, gold quotations from a number of well-known jewellery brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Lao Fengxiang and Chow Sang Sang have recently reached multi-year highs. Taking Zhou Shengsheng as an example, the price of gold jewelry was 10 yuan per gram on October 20, and rose to 614 yuan on October 10, a new high.
Why did gold suddenly rally recently? Wan Zhe, a professor at Beijing Normal University and former chief economist of China National Gold Group, told China News Agency that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has rekindled the war and caused regional tensions, and whether it will lead to a larger interregional conflict is still undecided, and risk aversion will inevitably rise.
Taking oil and gas as an example, although the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has not had an impact on oil and gas supplies, prices should not rise. But in reality, prices soared within a week of conflict. It shows that the panic in the global market is relatively high, and the risk aversion is also high, which in turn leads to the price of gold.
"Gold rallied to its highest level since late July as investors sought safe-haven assets to counter the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This triggered speculators to cover their short positions and helped gold maintain the previous week's gains, rendering the negative correlation between gold and US bond yields and the US dollar ineffective in the short term. UBS Wealth Management's Investment Director's Office (CIO) told China News Agency that Guoshi Express analysis.
Will it continue to rise in the future?
Will gold prices continue to rise? According to the analysis of the Office of Investment Director (CIO) of UBS Wealth Management, gold may face some key tests in the coming days, including adverse effects from real interest rates and the rise of the US dollar, and the weekly trend of all important ETF flows is closely watched. So, while gold remains a long-term hedge in portfolios, investors chasing a rally need to be prepared for the possibility of a short-term retracement if conditions in the Middle East de-escalate quickly.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told China News Agency that in the short term, the prolongation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict cycle will also support the international gold price. However, the impact of risk events on gold prices is usually difficult to sustain, and the trend of international gold prices is expected to return to fundamental dominance before the end of the year.
Wang Qing analyzed that the US dollar and global inflation trends are the main factors determining the international gold price. Looking ahead, considering that the US dollar index will remain high for a certain period of time, there is a certain downward momentum in the international gold price before the end of the year. In the medium term, the current round of global inflation has entered a narrowing process, which is not conducive to the trend of gold prices. As a result, the international gold price may be dominated by volatility in the future. However, in view of the increase in the frequency of major international risk events in recent years, it is difficult to significantly ease next year, which means that the international gold price will continue to fluctuate sharply in 2024 stimulated by safe-haven demand.
Is it now suitable to "chase" buy?
The price continues to rise, making gold a "sweet potato" sought after by investors, especially more and more young people have begun to join the "gold rush" army.
On social platforms, many young people began to "save golden beans". A golden bean weighs about 1 gram, only needs a few hundred yuan, has strong value retention, and has a low purchase threshold, which is their "entry product" for "gold panning".
However, Zhu Zhigang, vice president and chief analyst of the Guangdong Gold Association, reminded that consumers should not blindly "chase the rise and kill the fall", but should adopt a small batch investment strategy to reduce investment risks according to the actual market and demand. In addition, it is also necessary to continue to pay attention to the difference between domestic and foreign prices, and if the difference is large, you need to be cautious when buying gold.
Wan Zhe reminded that if you intend to buy gold beans and gold jewelry, and expect them to have a certain value preservation function, you can decide whether to buy according to your own assets and preferences, but do not speculate on making money in the short term. For gold investment, it is not recommended for ordinary people to increase leverage to enter the market, because of insufficient professional knowledge, it is easy to be deceived. At the same time, investment in gold should be vigilant against risks and choose legal and compliant institutions to buy.