Russian President Vladimir Putin, mired in a conflict with Ukraine with no prospect of exit, finds the confrontation between the Palestinian resistance and Israel an unexpected but risky way to move geopolitical lines in the region.
Looking at a number of data, it can be said that Putin hopes to achieve 5 major goals from the current war in the Middle East, and it is not excluded that some of these goals were discussed between him and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during their meeting on the sidelines of the New Silk Roads Forum, or what is known as the "Belt and Road Initiative" in Beijing on Wednesday. Here are Putin's five goals related to what is happening in the region:
Diverting attention from Ukraine
After 600 days of war in Ukraine, which is likely to last for a long time, the crisis in the Middle East offers the opportunity to divert the attention of the international community from the Ukrainian crisis.
Igor Delanue, deputy director of the Franco-Russian Observatory, said that the attack by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) on Israel contributes to diverting Western public attention from Ukraine due to its consequences.
Alexander Gabov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said, "This conflict is a boon for Russia because it distracts a lot of attention from Ukraine from the United States and the West, and the US administration intends to devote a lot of time to the current crisis in the Middle East, and this will probably continue until the US presidential elections in November 2024.
Moreover, the US election could favor Putin if Republicans, some of whom are seeking to reconsider US aid to Ukraine, win, and the issue of Israel is very sensitive for the American right.
Avoid clutter
The Middle East is so important to Russia that some voices in the West have expressed doubts that the Kremlin played a role in Hamas's attack on Israel's occupation on October 7.
But there is no concrete evidence to support that hypothesis. Hannah Knott, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, US, said she had not seen "evidence of direct Russian support for Hamas, and this applies to this attack, in terms of planning, weapons and execution. Let's be clear: Russian help was not necessary."
Tatyana Stanovaya, founder of the website R Politics, believes that if the conflict expands into an open war between Iran and Israel, it would harm the Russian presence in the Middle East and Moscow's intervention in Syria.
It also argues that Russian military bases in Syria allow Moscow to project its influence in Africa and the Middle East.
Improving Iran's Situation
The rapprochement between Tehran and Moscow has become one of the keys to Russian diplomacy, especially with the extensive use of Iranian drones in Ukraine. The Islamic Republic is a major supporter of Hamas, similar to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Here, too, Moscow seems to be holding the strings of the game.
Nigel Golddavies, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, says Russia's war in Ukraine has strengthened Moscow's military ties with Iran. Hamas officials have visited Moscow at least three times since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
"The question has always been how far this cooperation can go without pushing (Israel) to rethink its relations with Moscow." Moscow also fears that any harsh retaliation against Iran could weaken its close ally.
Ranking of Israel
Despite the above, Moscow should be careful to put Israel in order, especially since personal relations between Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are good.
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Israeli military factories have not delivered any weapons to Kiev's forces, or at least not publicly.
Dmitry Menik of the French Institute of International Relations argues that the Kremlin has so far succeeded in keeping Israel out of the war in Ukraine and does not want anything that could make this Western country an additional supporter of Ukraine.
However, the Russian president refrained from describing Hamas's attacks on Israel as "terrorist", contrary to the Western position.
This stance signals a change in Moscow's political priorities, according to Hannah Knott, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who says Moscow's rhetoric now focuses on pro-Palestinian public opinion in the Middle East and the southern hemisphere.
Weakening the West
Analysts argue that the primary goal of Russian diplomacy is to weaken the Western world order, a project that is shared with it in particular by its Chinese, Iranian and North Korean allies.
The Kremlin was quick to blame Washington for the current crisis in the Middle East.
In this regard, Tatyana Stanovaya believes that the situation in the region "contributes to the dissemination of anti-Western rhetoric by accusing the latter of causing global instability and refueling historical conflicts."
Political analyst Igor Delanoy points out that Israel's war of revenge on Gaza, including heavy bombardment, will undoubtedly highlight the double standards adopted by the West in its reaction to conflicts and wars.
Dmitry Menik of the French Institute of International Relations argues that what unites some countries of the South and Russia is not so much mutual values as resentment and perhaps hatred of the West.