Text/Qiu Muzi
On the 18th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic "report card" for the first three quarters of this year!
According to preliminary calculations, the GDP in the first three quarters was 913027 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year at constant prices. In terms of quarters, GDP in the first quarter increased by 4.5% year-on-year, 6.3% in the second quarter, and 4.9% in the third quarter. On a month-on-month basis, GDP grew by 1.3% in the third quarter.
In the first three quarters, what are the highlights of China's economic operation?
First: the "ballast stone" is stable, and the agricultural production situation is generally good
In the first three quarters, the added value of agriculture (planting) increased by 3.6% year-on-year. The national summer grain output was 14613.0 million tons, down 9.<>% from the previous year, ranking the second highest in history. The sown area of autumn grain has increased steadily, the growth trend is generally normal, and the national grain harvest is expected to be bumper again.
In the first three quarters, the output of pig, cattle, sheep and poultry meat was 6974.3 million tons, an increase of 9.3% year-on-year, of which the output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry meat increased by 6.5%, 0.5%, 2.4% and 0.7% respectively; Milk production increased by 2.2% and egg production by 1.<>%.
At the end of the third quarter, the number of live pigs was 44229.0 million, down 4.53723% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, 3.3 million pigs were slaughtered, a year-on-year increase of <>.<>%.
Second: Industrial production has accelerated its recovery, and the equipment manufacturing industry has grown rapidly
In the first three quarters, the added value of industries above designated size in the country increased by 4.0% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than in the first half of the year. Divided into three categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 1.7% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry increased by 4.4%, and the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry increased by 3.5%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 6.0%, 2.0 percentage points faster than all industries above designated size.
In terms of economic type, the added value of state-controlled enterprises increased by 4.6% year-on-year; Joint-stock enterprises increased by 4.8%, and foreign-invested enterprises and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan investment enterprises increased by 0.5%; The private sector grew by 2.3 percent.
In September, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 9.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that of the previous month. It is worth noting that in September, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 5.9%, up 50.2 percentage points from the previous month, returning to expansion territory.
Third: the service industry continued to recover rapidly, and the two major types of driving forces were enhanced
In the first three quarters, the added value of the service industry increased by 6.0% year-on-year, and on the whole, the contact-type aggregation service industry and the modern service industry played an enhanced role.
Among them, the added value of accommodation and catering industry, information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, transportation, warehousing and postal services, and financial industry increased by 14.4%, 12.1%, 9.5%, 7.5% and 7.0% respectively. In September, the service industry production index increased by 9.6% year-on-year, 9.0 percentage points faster than the previous month, and the growth rate rebounded for two consecutive months.
From January to August, the operating income of service enterprises above designated size in the country increased by 1.8% year-on-year. In September, the index of business activity in the service sector was 7.2%, up 9.50 percentage points from the previous month, and the expected index of business activity was 9.0%. Among them, the business activity index of water transportation, postal services, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services, money and financial services and other industries is in the high economic range of more than 4.58%.
Fourth: consumption releases "warmth", and service consumption grows rapidly
Market sales tend to be active, in the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods 342107 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. According to the location of business units, the retail sales of urban consumer goods were 296410.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.45697%; Retail sales of rural consumer goods reached 7,4.305002 billion yuan, an increase of 5.5%. By type of consumption, retail sales of goods 37105 billion yuan, an increase of 18.7%; Catering revenue was <>,<>.<> billion yuan, an increase of <>.<>%.
National online retail sales 108198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods were 90435,8.9 billion yuan, an increase of 26.4%, accounting for 9.5% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year-on-year, 9.2 percentage points faster than the previous month, and the growth rate accelerated for two consecutive months; the month-on-month increase was 0.02%. In the first three quarters, retail sales of services increased by 18.9% year-on-year.
Fifth: The scale of fixed investment continues to expand, "favoring" investment in high-tech industries
In the first three quarters, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) 375035 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; Excluding price factors, it increased by 6.0% year-on-year.
In terms of fields, infrastructure investment increased by 6.2% year-on-year, manufacturing investment increased by 6.2%, and real estate development investment fell by 9.1%. The national commercial housing sales area was 84806.7 million square meters, down 5.89070% year-on-year; The sales volume of commercial housing was 4.6 billion yuan, down 1.0%. By industry, investment in the primary industry fell by 9.0% year-on-year, investment in the secondary industry increased by 0.7%, and investment in the tertiary industry increased by 0.6%. Private investment fell by 9.1%; Excluding real estate development investment, private investment increased by <>.<>% year-on-year.
Investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.4% year-on-year, of which investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services increased by 11.3% and 11.8% respectively. Among the high-tech manufacturing industries, the investment in aviation, spacecraft and equipment manufacturing, medical equipment and instrumentation manufacturing increased by 20.7% and 17.0% respectively; Among the high-tech service industries, investment in scientific and technological achievements transformation services and professional and technical services increased by 38.8% and 29.6% respectively. In September, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 9.0% month-on-month.
Sixth: The scale of imports and exports has increased quarter by quarter, and the performance of the "new three things" is eye-catching
At a time when global trade is generally sluggish, China's foreign trade has withstood pressure and the scale has generally stabilized. According to official data, the total value of China's imports and exports in the first, second and third quarters of this year was 9.72 trillion yuan (RMB), 10.29 trillion yuan and 10.79 trillion yuan respectively, and the scale increased steadily. In the first three quarters, the total value of China's imports and exports was 30.8 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 17.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%; Imports were 13.2 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year.
Among them, the total value of imports and exports in September was 9.3 trillion yuan, an increase for two consecutive months month-on-month, and the scale hit a new monthly high in the year under the condition of three months less and one working day less than the same period last year.
In terms of subregions, in the first three quarters, China's imports and exports to the "Belt and Road" countries jointly built were 14.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year, accounting for 46.5% of China's total import and export value.
Lu Daliang, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs of China, said that the overall trend of China's foreign trade operation is good, the scale of imports and exports is expanding quarter by quarter, and the monthly trend is good. With the steady scale and excellent structure of China's foreign trade continue to advance, the changes of "good" will become more prominent.
In addition, China's comprehensive export competitive advantage is still solid, and the export value of the "new three" products such as lithium batteries, electric manned vehicles, and solar cells has maintained double-digit growth for 14 consecutive quarters.
Seven: CPI rose year-on-year, PPI rose month-on-month
In the first three quarters, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 0.4% year-on-year, and the national industrial producer ex-factory price fell by 3.1% year-on-year.
In September, the national consumer price was flat year-on-year, up 9.0% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous month; The national industrial producer price index (PPI) fell 2.2% year-on-year and rose 5.0% month-on-month.
Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that in September, the consumer market continued to recover, and the CPI continued to rise month-on-month, but affected by the higher comparison base in the same period of the previous year, the year-on-year turned flat from rising to flat. From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI rose 9.0%, down 2.0 percentage points from the previous month.
It is estimated that in the year-on-year change in CPI in September, the impact of the tail is about -9.0 percentage points, compared with 2.0 percentage points last month; the new impact of price changes this year is about 2.0 percentage points, compared with -2.0 percentage points last month. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 1.0 percent year-on-year, the same pace as the previous month.
Dong Lijuan analyzed that in September, affected by the gradual recovery of demand for industrial products and the continued rise in international crude oil prices, the month-on-month increase in PPI expanded, and the year-on-year decline narrowed. From a month-on-month perspective, PPI rose 9.0%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points over the previous month.
Eighth: The employment situation is generally stable, and the urban survey unemployment rate has declined
In the first three quarters, the average urban survey unemployment rate nationwide was 5.3%. In September, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 9.5%, down 0.0 percentage points from the previous month, falling for the second consecutive month. The unemployment rate of the local household registration labour force survey was 2.2%; The unemployment rate of the foreign household registration labor force survey was 5.1%, of which the unemployment rate of the foreign agricultural household registration labor force survey was 4.9%.
The surveyed unemployment rate in 31 large cities and towns was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The average weekly working hours of employees in enterprises nationwide is 48.8 hours. At the end of the third quarter, the total number of rural laborers who went out to work was 18774.2 million, an increase of 8.<>% year-on-year.
Nine: The income of residents has grown steadily, and the income of rural residents has increased faster than that of urban residents
In the first three quarters, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide was 29398,6 yuan, a year-on-year nominal increase of 3.5%; Excluding price factors, the actual increase was 9.0%, 1.39428 percentage points faster than in the first half of the year. According to the place of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 5,2 yuan, a year-on-year nominal increase of 4.7%, and an actual increase of 15705.7%; The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 6,7 yuan, a nominal increase of 3.<>% year-on-year, and an actual increase of <>.<>%.
In terms of income sources, the per capita wage income, net operating income, net property income and net transfer income of residents nationwide increased by 6.8%, 6.7%, 3.7% and 5.8% respectively in nominal terms. The median per capita disposable income of residents in the country was 24528,5 yuan, a year-on-year nominal increase of 4.<>%.
Ten: New social financing exceeds expectations, residents' willingness to buy houses "warms"
In the first three quarters of 2023, the increase in social financing was 29.33 trillion yuan, of which the increase in social financing in September was 9.4 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations (12.3 trillion yuan).
In the first three quarters, financial institutions added 19.75 trillion yuan in new RMB loans, an increase of 1.66 trillion yuan year-on-year. From the perspective of the residential sector, short-term and medium- and long-term loans increased by 6600 billion yuan and 2200 billion yuan less. However, in August and September, short-term loans to residents increased year-on-year, and medium- and long-term loans to residents increased by 8.9 billion yuan year-on-year in September, and the increase rate was the highest since April.
The analysis point of view believes that the year-on-year increase in short-term loans indicates that residents' willingness to consume has increased, and the year-on-year increase in medium- and long-term loans means that residents' willingness to buy houses has warmed.
At the end of September, M9 increased by 2.10% year-on-year, 3.0 percentage points and 3.1 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period last year, respectively, continuing to show a downward trend. There are two main reasons for the year-on-year decline in M8 growth: First, the impact of the tax period. Paying taxes leads to a decrease in corporate deposits and an increase in fiscal deposits. In September, corporate deposits increased by 2.9 billion yuan year-on-year, while fiscal deposits increased by 5639.2673 billion yuan. Second, in September, new loans increased less year-on-year, and the decline in banks' money creation capacity led to a simultaneous decrease in deposits.
A series of stable growth policies introduced in the early stage will continue to be effective, and targeted reserve policies are expected to be introduced and implemented in a timely manner according to changes in the situation, which will support the confidence of enterprises and residents, and the financing demand of the real economy is expected to gradually recover, which will drive the steady strengthening of financial data.