• Venezuela Wave of support and adhesions to María Corina Machado after the disqualification ordered by Maduro

The opposition primaries, to be held next week, have an owner in advance: the conservative María Corina Machado. According to all the polls he did not need anything, but yesterday he added one more support to his candidacy when Freddy Superlano, standard-bearer of Voluntad Popular (VP), who defeated Chavismo in 2021 in Barinas, the cradle of the revolution, resigned.

Several weeks of arduous negotiations were necessary to seal the agreement between Machado and VP, the party created by former political prisoner Leopoldo López and in which the former president in charge, Juan Guaidó, is a member. Precisely Superlano replaced Guaidó when the latter, persecuted by Chavismo, went into exile in the United States.

"We are here to strengthen this process," picked up the political glove Machado, who has received a wave of popular support in his travels around the country precisely for having exercised as a loose verse in the opposition to Nicolás Maduro.

Most strikingly, both candidates, Machado and Superlano, are disqualified by the revolution, as is former governor Henrique Capriles, who also abandoned the fight for the presidential nomination a week ago. Precisely in the primaries held by the opposition a decade ago, Leopoldo López joined the candidacy of his great rival, Capriles, because he weighed the disqualification imposed by Hugo Chávez against the emerging mayor of Caracas Chacao.

"The decision of our party was unanimous and full of optimism," Lopez said to try to deny the complaints that arose among militants from within Venezuela. "Everyone on the street professes that she is the winner of the primaries," Superlano certified. That's right. The pollster Delphos has portrayed the photograph of the political moment and its numbers are conclusive: the leader of Vente Venezuela concentrates 71% of the support, with an advantage of more than 60 points over the social democrat Carlos Prosperi, barely with 10% follow-up. The rest of the candidates, a dozen that cover the entire political arc, barely exceeds 2% of the support.

The big issue is that Machado, according to other polls, would also beat Maduro by a landslide in next year's presidential elections. An election to which Chavismo does not allow him to participate for that very reason, for his popular support: more than 40% of votes between them. Maduro has already signaled to ambassadors and allies that he will remain in power until at least 2030. Or as Chavez shouted, the 2,000 always.

It is at this point that the long secret negotiations between Washington and Caracas, which have accelerated in recent weeks, become especially relevant. In the script, the United States would relax its sanctions in exchange for electoral conditions, but almost no one believes that these will cover disqualifications.

It is precisely these conversations that have allowed the organization of the primaries to advance without the final thrust despite the government's strides. Delphos expects that between 8% and 20% of those registered on the electoral roll will be able to vote for their favorite candidate.

Chavismo invented a few weeks ago the disqualification for 15 years of Machado, to verify the support he obtained in each municipality to which he traveled. He also persecuted her viciously, like Capriles, with constant harassment, even to the point of violence.

To further complicate the negotiations, Maduro changed the National Electoral Council (CNE), which was under his control, for an even more faithful one, chaired by his inseparable Elvis Amoroso. Precisely this leader, former Comptroller General of the Republic, was in charge of disqualifying Machado and Superlano himself.

"After the opposition primary, the implementation of a possible agreement would have to be evaluated. In addition to its history of non-compliance, the Maduro government's interest in the agreement is very punctual and short-term: trying to quickly obtain resources. It could retract," said Mariano de Alba, senior adviser at Crisis Group.

  • Venezuela
  • Leopoldo Lopez
  • United States
  • Mariano Diaz
  • Venezuela Elections