Imagine that one tennis ball is thrown at you, it will be easy for you to catch it, and if 10 balls are thrown, one after the other, you can also catch them in the same way. But if 10 balls are thrown simultaneously, you may be able to catch two, at most, while you won't be able to catch the rest.
Michael Armstrong, associate professor of operations research at Canada's Brook University, explains how Palestinian resistance factions in Gaza were able to deceive the physics on which Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system depends.
Armstrong told Al Jazeera Net, "As you can only pick up two balls at most of the ten balls that were thrown simultaneously, the physics that adopts this system (Iron Dome), failed to deal with the (rocket shower) that was launched from Gaza towards Israel."
Iron Dome Defense System physics based on radar that emits electromagnetic radiation in a specific direction (French)
What is Iron Dome physics?
For his part, Yaron Gross of the Weizmann Institute of Science explains in a report published two years ago, that "the physics of this defense system depends on a radar that emits electromagnetic radiation in a certain direction, and when this radiation hits a rocket or any other moving object in its path, it is reflected to the detector, and the calculation of the time intervals between the release of radiation and its absorption by the detector allows determining the location of the object, and at that moment, the system has to perform two tasks, as it needs to determine where it is about to The rocket has to land in it quickly, and calculate where the missile should be launched to intercept it along its trajectory."
Although it seems easy in this task, given that the movement of the rocket depends on relatively simple forces, such as gravity and clouds, which makes it relatively easy to calculate and predict its trajectory using simple physical principles, there are factors that may intervene to make this task very difficult, according to Gross, which is the absence of prior information about the aerodynamic structure of the rocket, and specific details about the drag forces and torque acting on it, and therefore, the optimal analysis of the rocket's motion requires continuous tracking to calculate its trajectory. and predict it, using sophisticated algorithms. In his report, Gross prides itself on having Iron Dome for these sophisticated algorithms.
But Michael Armstrong, author of a study published in October 2014 in the journal Operation Research on the Iron Dome system, explains to Al Jazeera Net how the Palestinian resistance rocket shower succeeded in disabling these algorithms.
"When the radar in Iron Dome detects a missile in the air, the computer estimates where the missile will land, and it provides this information to the person operating the system, where that person makes the decision to shoot down the missile, then presses the launch button, and the computer fires the Tamir interceptor, and Tamir flies towards the attack missile and explodes, hoping to destroy it, and these steps happen very quickly but not immediately," Armstrong said.
"If the missiles arrive, one by one, as in the tennis balls you throw at a person one after the other, it's easy for the regime to shoot them all, but if too many rockets arrive at the same time, the system may not respond fast enough to shoot them all down, and that's what happened in the last attack," he says.
Shot attack
A simultaneous missile attack is called a "shot," so a "shot attack," as defined by a study published in the Journal of Franklin Institute, is one in which a barrage of missiles is fired at the same target at the same time.
"So, if an attacker wants to defeat Iron Dome, they can launch (a shot attack), that is, fire many missiles at the same target at the same time, hoping that the defense system will not be able to fire interceptors fast enough, and that would allow more missiles to hit their target," Armstrong said.
It is not known how many missiles the Iron Dome system can deal with at once, as this information is a military secret, as Armstrong explains, but he stresses that Israel will certainly benefit from what happened in this conflict to improve the system's technology to deal with more missiles, and that the resistance factions will also develop their performance, adding, "It seems that Hamas has learned how many missiles can dodge the Iron Dome system."
The solution Israel might resort to is to build more iron domes, he says, "If there are two systems in the same location, they can cooperate to deal with twice as many rockets, but each system is very expensive."
Israel has 10 Iron Dome batteries that can provide city-sized coverage against rockets (Reuters)
10 Iron Dome batteries
Israel has 10 Iron Dome batteries that can provide city-sized coverage against rockets with a range of 4 to 70 kilometers, according to the Israeli army.
Each battery is capable of defending an area of up to 155 kilometers, and is strategically placed around cities and populated areas, and the battery includes 3 to 4 launchers, and each launcher can carry up to 20 interceptor missiles.
Michael Shobridge, director and founder of the Australian Centre for Strategic Analysis, a think tank focused on defence and security, says in a report published by the Australian ABC News website, "Depending on the number of missiles launched, there must be overlapping coverage of the (Iron Dome) batteries, so if you are defending against a thousand incoming missiles, you need at least a thousand interceptors."
He explains that each battery costs about $157 million, and each interceptor missile is about $50,<>, and to preserve interceptors, the radar system quickly determines whether the missile is on its way to hit a populated area, and if not, the missile is ignored and allowed to land without damage.
Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst in defense strategy at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, says in the same report published by the Australian network "ABC News" that "the implementation of the method of attack shot, in addition to paralyzing the ability of Iron Dome, the cost of the interceptor missile used by this system, makes there significant material losses, when implementing this method."
The Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas's military wing, says it fired about 5,20 rockets at Israel in about 2200 minutes, while the Israeli army estimated their number at <>,<>, but did not disclose the number of rockets intercepted.
Theodore Postol, a professor of engineering, technology and national security policy in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Science, Technology and Society Program, may explain why the Israeli occupation army has not been announced.
"Years ago, I reached general conclusions revolving around the failure of the Iron Dome performance, and those conclusions have not changed in any way based on my continuous updating of the evidence on its performance, as many photographs and videos from recent events fully support the conclusion that the Iron Dome interception rates are very low, perhaps less than 4, 5% or even less," says Postol, who provided "Al Jazeera Net" with images revealing the failure of the Iron Dome system. "As you can see in the images, clearly the failure to deal with three long-range artillery rockets that reached Tel Aviv," he added.
Iron Dome creates a false sense of security (Reuters)
A deceptive sense of security
In reference to the fact that the "Iron Dome" system, despite its sophisticated physics, does not provide full protection, Pavel Bodwig at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University says to Al Jazeera Net, "It is known that any defense system, whether it is Iron Dome or anything else, can be overcome, it is just a matter of how many missiles an attacker can launch, and because defense is usually more expensive than attack, so the attacking side can always penetrate the defense if it has the ability to build a sufficiently large number of rockets."
For these justifications cited by experts, an engineering report published by the Intercepting Engineering website commenting on Hamas's success in penetrating Iron Dome says, "The Iron Dome system was hailed as a technological marvel and a lifesaver for Israel, but in fact it creates a false sense of security, and the Hamas attack exposed its weaknesses, and the fact that no air defense system can guarantee full protection from rockets."
Years ago, a report published on the website of the University of Nebra in Spain predicted this scenario that occurred in the recent attack, and said that "while Iron Dome currently provides a sense of security, it cannot be expected to continue like this forever.