Criticisms and expectations. Who wins the Nobel Prize for Literature tomorrow?

In most predictions for who will win this year's Nobel Prize for Literature, Russian anti-Kremlin writer Lyudmila Ulytskaya is preparing for her epic novels in the style of American author of "Grapes of Wrath" John Steinbeck, and potential candidates may include British writer Salman Rushdie.

But the Swedish Academy may also choose to award the prize to a less popular writer, such as Chinese writer Kan Shue.

Politicization controversy

Lisa Irenaeus, head of the cultural section of the Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, believes that the choice of Ulitskaya, if it happens, would prove that "literature remains out of the blue" by highlighting Russian literature despite the war in Ukraine.

Björn Wiemann of the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter said it was an opportunity to reward an author living in Germany who stood up to Russian power, which would be a "very political message" from the academy, he said.

Although Feeman noted that Jamaica Kinkaide-American American biography of Antigua and Barbuda (named after Antigua and Barbuda) said he would be happy if Salman Rushdie received it, though the win is expected to anger many critics of Rushdie, who is accused of insulting Islam and insulting Muslim sanctities.

It was only in 2016 that the Swedish Academy denounced the Iranian fatwa, which squandered the blood of Rushdie, the author of the novel "The Satanic Verses", out of its concern for neutrality, to the dismay of a number of its members.

Critics such as Daniel O'Gorman, professor of English literature at Oxford University, reject the framing of Rushdie's incident as a dichotomy of freedom of expression and fundamentalism, warning of what he calls "freedom of expression fundamentalism" that leads to increased discrimination against Muslims.

The Swedish Academy has been trying to re-burnish its image since a sex scandal in 2018 and the ensuing controversy over the award to Austrian-Serb writer Peter Handke for defending Serbs during the wars of the <>s in the Balkans and for denying war massacres.

Last year, French novelist Annie Ernault won the prize for her work narrating the liberation of a woman of humble origins who has become a feminist icon against her will.

The prize was awarded in 2021 to British-Tanzanian novelist Abdirizak Gorna whose work focuses on the plight of refugees, colonialism and racism.

Karen Frantzen, professor of literature at Stockholm University, noted that "there has been greater awareness in recent years about the inadmissibility of continuing to focus on Europe, the need for greater equality, and the need for the prize to reflect its times."

Constant criticism

This is in line with the new composition of the academy, which has renewed about half of its members since the award of the Nobel Prize to Handke, according to the editor-in-chief of the cultural section of the newspaper "Dagens Nyheter", noting that it "changed its image".

Many members of the Academy – authors, philosophers and professors – do not hesitate to face criticism, participate heavily in societal debate, organize conferences on freedom of expression and equality, and publish articles in the Swedish press.

Björn Feiman recalled that "this would not have been possible five years ago," as the 15th member of the Iranian Academy, the Iranian poet Gila Musaed, for example, took a stand against the Iranian regime, praising the literary quality of the works of the Syrian poet Adonis, whose name was nominated for the Nobel Prize more than ten years ago.

But Swedish national radio literary journalist Lena Kalmeteg admitted that "it is difficult to predict in advance how the members of the academy will think."

Other "ordinary" writers who are constantly being named Nobel Prize winners are also predicted by critics, such as Romania's Mircea Kertarescu, Hungary's Peter Nadash and Lashlo Krashnahorkai, and Frenchmen Michel Welbeck and Marise Condé.

But this traditional method of predicting the Nobel Prize for Literature no longer works.

"Given the academy's promise to open up to other geographies, I fear that we will not eventually have the knowledge to guess well, even with a doctorate in literature," said Viktor Malm, editor-in-chief of the cultural section of the tabloid Expressen.

To fulfill its promise, the Swedish Academy consults outside experts in order to be able to develop an accurate understanding of literature from other backgrounds.

Since the prize's inception, only 17 women have won the prestigious literary title out of a total of 119 winners, 16 Frenchmen and only one who writes in Arabic, the Egyptian Naguib Mahfouz, in 1988.

Expected names

Since the scandal caused by Frenchman Jean-Claude Arnault, the husband of academic member poet Katarina Frostenson, and the fact that the announcement of the 2018 prize had to be postponed for a year, two women have won the prize, Polish Olga Tokarczuk and American Louise Gluck.

The predominance of women in recent years is a cause for optimism for the authors whose names are in circulation as eligible to win, including American Joyce Carol Oates, France's Maryse Condé and Canada's Margaret Atwood.

Kenya's Ngogi Watheongo, Hungary's László Krasznörki, Americans Thomas Pinchon, Don Delillo, Joyce Carol Oates, French-Moroccan Tahar Ben Jelloun, Croatia's Dubravka Ogrišić, Japan's Haruki Murakami and France's Michel Welbeck are among the names this year.

Other nominees include Norwegian John Voss and Karl of Knausgaard, whose victory, if it happens, could return the Nobel to its Norse cradle more than 10 years after the literature prize was awarded to Swede Thomas Transtromer.

The American academic Bruton Feldman argues in his critical book "The Nobel Prize... History of Genius, Controversy and Favor" that "the prize is widely seen as political, that is, the Nobel Peace Prize disguised as a literary mask."

The permanent secretary of the Swedish Academy, Horace Engdl, declared in 2009 that "Europe remains the center of the literary world," and that "the United States is very isolated, does not translate adequately and does not really participate in the great dialogue of literature."

British novelist and academic Tim Parks questioned whether Swedish jury members would often be able to taste Indonesian poetry or African literature, for example.

In a previous article, Parkes criticized the members of the academy, saying he doubted they could identify the greatest novelists and poets on the international stage, pointing to their bias towards Scandinavian culture, with 16 writers of Scandinavian descent winning the global prize out of 113 from its inception until 2016.